Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
151 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is centered over California and Nevada with westerly
flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A dryline is present
across the area this afternoon with dewpoints climbing into the
60s across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. CAPE values
east of the dryline will generally be 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg with 0
to 6 km bulk shear values from 35 to 45 kts. CAPE and shear values
are expected to be highest across Pecos, Terrell, and Brewster
Counties. Mid-level lapse rates will generally be marginal
according to the NAM12. Omega values will be enhanced across
portions of the area this afternoon into tonight as upper level
shortwaves move overhead. Severe thunderstorms are possible, given
these conditions, this afternoon into tonight across most of West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds but an isolated tornado or two is
possible.

The upper low moves over Southern California/Southern Nevada on
Sunday with another dryline across West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico. The CAPE and shear values are expected to be less tomorrow
than today but strong to severe storms will still be possible.
Temperatures are expected to warm up on Sunday into the 80s and 90s,
especially west of the dryline. The previously mentioned upper low
moves over the Four Corners region on Monday with the dryline
expected to be across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. The upper low/trough begins to move over the region on
Tuesday with a dryline present and a cold front moving southward
into the area during the morning. Severe storms will be possible
along the cold front and dryline intersection. Most of the rain and
storms should be east of the area on Wednesday with temperatures
generally in the 80s and 90s. Similar conditions are expected on
Thursday as a big upper trough moves over the west coast. Showers
and thunderstorms chances will increase on Friday as the upper
trough to the west begins to move/expand eastward. This same trend
will continue into next Saturday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and storms are developing in the Guadalupe Mountains and
will add fuel moisture. Where and how much rain will be important
since tomorrow relative humidities bottom out into the single digits
and winds increase to 20 to 30 mph. ERC values are already below the
50th percentile and any additional rain may drop the ERCs further so
despite dangerous weather conditions, the overall fire danger threat
may be reduced. Do not see a Red Flag Warning being needed but a
Fire Danger Statement may be warranted for Sunday and perhaps again
on Monday when similar conditions are expected. Will let the
midnight shift make the final assessment on this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  87  66  89 /  50  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       59  91  58  89 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         65  92  68  94 /  50  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  63  92  64  93 /  50  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 59  84  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          59  88  59  87 /  30   0   0   0
Marfa                          52  87  49  87 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  89  65  90 /  50  10  10  10
Odessa                         63  89  65  91 /  50  10  10  10
Wink                           62  95  60  94 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

10/80

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
205 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-161915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
205 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021 /105 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe storms will be possible across much of the area
this afternoon and evening with the best chances across the Northern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds. A tornado may also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is the potential for strong to severe storms on Sunday across
the eastern most portion of the Permian Basin.

Elevated fire weather conditions may exist across the west on Sunday
and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
402 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

TXZ075-274-277-278-152145-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
Davis Mountains TX-
402 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PECOS...SOUTHWESTERN
REEVES AND NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 401 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Balmorhea State Park, or 21 miles north of Fort Davis, moving east
at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include... Balmorhea, Balmorhea Lake, Balmorhea
State Park, Saragosa, Buffalo Trail Scout Camp and Toyahvale.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 201 and 227.

LAT...LON 3078 10378 3081 10402 3098 10392 3118 10342
      3072 10340
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 252DEG 9KT 3088 10377

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
417 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

TXZ067-075-274-152200-
Pecos TX-Ward TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
417 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PECOS...EAST CENTRAL
REEVES AND CENTRAL WARD COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 417 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 8
miles east of Barstow, or 15 miles east of Pecos, moving north at 5
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Barstow, Pyote and B F Goodrich Testing Track.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 47 and 72.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
western and southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3129 10298 3127 10342 3161 10339 3161 10303
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 190DEG 6KT 3149 10326

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
427 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

TXZ075-152215-
Pecos TX-
427 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM
CDT...

At 427 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Fort Stockton, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Stockton and Fort Stockton-Pecos County Airport.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 258 and 292.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3068 10286 3096 10294 3113 10252 3094 10235
      3054 10237
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 260DEG 24KT 3088 10278

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
429 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

TXZ060-061-067-068-152215-
Crane TX-Ector TX-Ward TX-Winkler TX-
429 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ECTOR...NORTHEASTERN
WARD...SOUTHEASTERN WINKLER AND NORTHWESTERN CRANE COUNTIES UNTIL 515
PM CDT...

At 429 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pyote, or 9 miles west of Monahans, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Monahans, Thorntonville, Wickett, Roy Hurd Memorial Airport and
Monahans Sandhills State Park.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 67 and 94.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3144 10306 3157 10313 3177 10280 3168 10268
      3147 10265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 245DEG 15KT 3154 10304

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
332 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021

NMZ028-152215-
Eddy County Plains NM-
332 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM MDT...

At 331 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 7
miles north of Artesia, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Artesia, Hope, Atoka and Artesia Municipal Airport.

LAT...LON 3296 10484 3297 10406 3292 10403 3251 10485
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 245DEG 15KT 3294 10445

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
453 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

NMZ028-TXZ059-273-274-152245-
Eddy County Plains NM-Loving TX-Eastern Culberson County TX-
Reeves County Plains TX-
453 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN EDDY...SOUTHWESTERN
LEA...NORTHWESTERN REEVES...NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON AND NORTHWESTERN
LOVING COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT/445 PM MDT/...

At 452 PM CDT/352 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms over Loving, or 10 miles southeast of Carlsbad, moving
northeast at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carlsbad, Loving, Red Bluff Reservoir, Malaga, Whites City, Carlsbad
Caverns National Park and Otis.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT/1000
PM MDT/ for southeastern New Mexico...and western and southwestern
Texas.

LAT...LON 3213 10455 3214 10455 3214 10453 3215 10454
      3216 10454 3216 10455 3244 10403 3206 10372
      3203 10372 3184 10409
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 240DEG 6KT 3227 10413

89