Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
151 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

.DISCUSSION...

An upper trough is centered over California and Nevada with westerly
flow over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A dryline is present
across the area this afternoon with dewpoints climbing into the
60s across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. CAPE values
east of the dryline will generally be 2,000 to 3,000 J/kg with 0
to 6 km bulk shear values from 35 to 45 kts. CAPE and shear values
are expected to be highest across Pecos, Terrell, and Brewster
Counties. Mid-level lapse rates will generally be marginal
according to the NAM12. Omega values will be enhanced across
portions of the area this afternoon into tonight as upper level
shortwaves move overhead. Severe thunderstorms are possible, given
these conditions, this afternoon into tonight across most of West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds but an isolated tornado or two is
possible.

The upper low moves over Southern California/Southern Nevada on
Sunday with another dryline across West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico. The CAPE and shear values are expected to be less tomorrow
than today but strong to severe storms will still be possible.
Temperatures are expected to warm up on Sunday into the 80s and 90s,
especially west of the dryline. The previously mentioned upper low
moves over the Four Corners region on Monday with the dryline
expected to be across the far eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos. The upper low/trough begins to move over the region on
Tuesday with a dryline present and a cold front moving southward
into the area during the morning. Severe storms will be possible
along the cold front and dryline intersection. Most of the rain and
storms should be east of the area on Wednesday with temperatures
generally in the 80s and 90s. Similar conditions are expected on
Thursday as a big upper trough moves over the west coast. Showers
and thunderstorms chances will increase on Friday as the upper
trough to the west begins to move/expand eastward. This same trend
will continue into next Saturday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and storms are developing in the Guadalupe Mountains and
will add fuel moisture. Where and how much rain will be important
since tomorrow relative humidities bottom out into the single digits
and winds increase to 20 to 30 mph. ERC values are already below the
50th percentile and any additional rain may drop the ERCs further so
despite dangerous weather conditions, the overall fire danger threat
may be reduced. Do not see a Red Flag Warning being needed but a
Fire Danger Statement may be warranted for Sunday and perhaps again
on Monday when similar conditions are expected. Will let the
midnight shift make the final assessment on this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  87  66  89 /  50  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       59  91  58  89 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         65  92  68  94 /  50  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  63  92  64  93 /  50  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 59  84  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          59  88  59  87 /  30   0   0   0
Marfa                          52  87  49  87 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  89  65  90 /  50  10  10  10
Odessa                         63  89  65  91 /  50  10  10  10
Wink                           62  95  60  94 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

10/80

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
205 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-161915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
205 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021 /105 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe storms will be possible across much of the area
this afternoon and evening with the best chances across the Northern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. The main threats will be large
hail and damaging winds. A tornado may also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is the potential for strong to severe storms on Sunday across
the eastern most portion of the Permian Basin.

Elevated fire weather conditions may exist across the west on Sunday
and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
229 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

TXZ075-274-277-278-152000-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
Davis Mountains TX-
229 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PECOS...SOUTHERN
REEVES AND NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 229 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles west of Fort Stockton to near
Balmorhea State Park. Movement was east at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Stockton, Balmorhea, Balmorhea Lake, Balmorhea State Park,
Saragosa, Fort Stockton-Pecos County Airport, Star Mountain,
Toyahvale, Buffalo Trail Scout Camp and Firestone Test Track.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 192 and 264.

LAT...LON 3117 10274 3106 10402 3077 10394 3082 10282
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 258DEG 11KT 3095 10307 3087 10378

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
306 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

TXZ075-274-152045-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
306 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PECOS...SOUTHEASTERN
REEVES AND SOUTHEASTERN WARD COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 305 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Fort Stockton, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Stockton, Firestone Test Track, Fort Stockton-Pecos County
Airport, Coyanosa and Imperial Reservoir.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 227 and 276.

LAT...LON 3132 10288 3130 10288 3129 10285 3087 10261
      3069 10341 3119 10343
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 240DEG 6KT 3096 10296

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
308 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

TXZ075-274-277-278-152100-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
Davis Mountains TX-
308 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PECOS...SOUTHWESTERN
REEVES AND NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 307 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 9
miles southwest of Balmorhea State Park, or 16 miles north of Fort
Davis, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Balmorhea, Balmorhea Lake, Balmorhea State Park, Saragosa, Verhalen,
Star Mountain, Toyahvale and Buffalo Trail Scout Camp.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 186 and 226.
 Interstate 20 between mile markers 0 and 9.

LAT...LON 3071 10388 3085 10403 3103 10414 3119 10399
      3120 10343 3069 10341
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 241DEG 8KT 3083 10386

89

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             MARFA                   30.31N 104.03W
05/14/2021  E1.00 INCH       PRESIDIO           TX   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO SHOWED HAIL UP TO QUARTERS COVERING
            THE GROUND.

&&

DEVIN.CHEHAK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
347 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

TXZ075-274-152130-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
347 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PECOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 346 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 16
miles west of Fort Stockton, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Stockton, Firestone Test Track, Fort Stockton-Pecos County
Airport, Coyanosa and B F Goodrich Testing Track.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 227 and 273.

LAT...LON 3069 10341 3128 10343 3130 10290 3072 10256
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 289DEG 14KT 3082 10315

89

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
402 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

TXZ075-274-277-278-152145-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
Davis Mountains TX-
402 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PECOS...SOUTHWESTERN
REEVES AND NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 401 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
Balmorhea State Park, or 21 miles north of Fort Davis, moving east
at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include... Balmorhea, Balmorhea Lake, Balmorhea
State Park, Saragosa, Buffalo Trail Scout Camp and Toyahvale.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 201 and 227.

LAT...LON 3078 10378 3081 10402 3098 10392 3118 10342
      3072 10340
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 252DEG 9KT 3088 10377

89