Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Currently prevailing VFR, but VCTS confined to KCNM with TS slowly
moving east off GDP Mtns. Potential TEMPO at KCNM pending radar
trends next few hrs. Otherwise, precip-free at the rest of
terminals next 18 hrs. Trending a short period of MVFR cigs at
KMAF according to recent guidance, so added a line to cover for
the potential. Gusty SE winds will settle slowly overnight due to
LLJ formation. Sct/Bkn cu field expected between 16-20z across W Tx
and SE NM tomorrow, along with TSRA potential beyond 18z at
KMAF/KFST/KINK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar is showing storms developing in the Davis Mountains.
Instability is marginal with CAPE values of 500-1500J/KG and shear
is also marginal with 0-6KM shear of 30-35KTS, so while there may
be a few isolated severe storms later this afternoon, the risk
shouldn't be too great. Tomorrow an upper level ridge axis
currently to our west will move into the eastern Permian Basin
allowing a weak upper disturbance to move across the CWA. This
will increase instability with CAPE values reaching 2000J/KG,
with shear remaining unchanged. Therefore the severe risk
increases only slightly tomorrow though increased coverage and
closer proximity to populated areas will increase the threat.

The upper ridge moves well east of the area Sunday causing a warm
and dry westerly flow that will end rain chances for a couple of
days and send temperatures back up to near or slightly above
normal. By Tuesday an upper level low will move into New Mexico
and with it a return of rain chances. A dryline will sharpen up
Tuesday and convergence along this boundary should cause storms
to develop. Dryline locations are notoriously difficult to predict
too far in advance but models are in good agreement that the best
rain chances will be east of a line from Seminole to Fort
Stockton. Shear and instability will be enough so that there will
be a potential again for some storms to become severe. There is
some model disagreement next week whether temperatures remain
above normal or cool down slightly. The GFS shows southeast low
level flow over much of the area keeping temps down several
degrees while the ECMWF is giving a drier, westerly flow which
keeps temps several degrees above normal. This forecast stayed
close to the NBM which is on the cooler side.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  84  64  87 /   0  50  50  20
Carlsbad                       60  89  58  92 /  40  30  20   0
Dryden                         66  88  66  92 /  20  40  40  10
Fort Stockton                  63  89  63  94 /  20  60  40  10
Guadalupe Pass                 58  84  60  85 /  50  20  10   0
Hobbs                          58  85  59  89 /  20  40  30  10
Marfa                          52  86  52  89 /  50  40  30  10
Midland Intl Airport           63  85  63  89 /  10  50  50  20
Odessa                         63  85  63  90 /  10  50  40  10
Wink                           63  91  62  95 /  20  50  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

87

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
209 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-151915-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
209 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021 /109 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong thunderstorms are possible today across the west.
Any storms that do develop may be accompanied by frequent lightning,
small hail, and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Strong to severe storms will be possible across much of the area on
Saturday with the best chances across the northern Permian Basin. The
main threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

There is the potential for strong to severe storms on Sunday across
most of the Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

TXZ276-277-142345-
Marfa Plateau TX-Davis Mountains TX-
605 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS AND
NORTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 605 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marfa, moving east at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marfa and Marfa Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3022 10418 3040 10420 3047 10393 3022 10385
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 261DEG 4KT 3032 10409

29

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
646 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

TXZ274-277-278-150030-
Reeves County Plains TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
Davis Mountains TX-
646 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN REEVES AND
NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 646 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Balmorhea State Park, or 20 miles north of Fort
Davis, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Balmorhea, Balmorhea Lake, Balmorhea State Park, Buffalo Trail Scout
Camp, Star Mountain and Toyahvale.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 209 and 213.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3077 10419 3098 10419 3101 10363 3074 10365
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 272DEG 12KT 3089 10394

29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021

NMZ028-150115-
Eddy County Plains NM-
628 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM MDT...

At 627 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles north of Carlsbad Caverns National Park, or 19 miles west of
Carlsbad, moving east at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Eddy
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3226 10463 3243 10464 3249 10435 3222 10431
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 264DEG 6KT 3234 10456

29

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
728 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

TXZ274-277-278-150115-
Reeves County Plains TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
Davis Mountains TX-
728 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN REEVES AND EAST CENTRAL
JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 728 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Balmorhea State Park, or 16 miles north of Fort
Davis, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo Trail Scout Camp and Star Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3077 10402 3092 10397 3092 10356 3066 10363
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 277DEG 12KT 3084 10390

29