Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Lubbock, TX

283 
WWUS54 KLUB 270234
SVSLUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
934 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

TXC069-219-279-270243-
/O.CAN.KLUB.SV.W.0229.000000T0000Z-210627T0300Z/
Hockley TX-Castro TX-Lamb TX-
934 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN HOCKLEY...
SOUTHEASTERN CASTRO AND EASTERN LAMB COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northwestern Texas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until 1100 PM CDT for the Panhandle of and northwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3462 10158 3381 10157 3380 10208 3431 10208
      3431 10199 3445 10199
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 243DEG 27KT 3442 10190 3391 10191 

$$

TXC189-303-437-270300-
/O.CON.KLUB.SV.W.0229.000000T0000Z-210627T0300Z/
Lubbock TX-Hale TX-Swisher TX-
934 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN LUBBOCK...HALE AND SOUTHERN SWISHER COUNTIES...

At 933 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 9 miles west of Kress to 6 miles northwest of
Abernathy, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Golf ball size hail reported in Abernathy at 917 PM CDT..

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Plainview, Tulia, Abernathy, Hale Center, Petersburg, Kress, Cotton
Center, Halfway, Seth Ward and Edmonson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3462 10158 3381 10157 3380 10208 3431 10208
      3431 10199 3445 10199
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 243DEG 27KT 3442 10190 3391 10191 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

55

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
657 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

.AVIATION...
Tricky set of TAFs with convection in the region through much of
the night and the possibility of sub-VFR cigs Sunday morning.
Storms so far this evening been dotted around KCDS and to the
southwest of KLBB. This more isolated activity could affect one or
more of the terminals over the next 2-3 hours, but it is unclear.
Thus, we have carried VCTS remarks and will amend the TAFs as
needed. More widespread convection will evolve through the late
evening into the early morning hours, spreading from west-to-east
over the region. Confidence is greater in direct terminal impacts
with this activity and we have tried to capture the most likely
timing of this convection with TEMPO groups. Strong and erratic
outflow winds and reduced visibility in heavy rain will occur as
the storms move through. Areas of showers and lower clouds
(perhaps MVFR to IFR) will then be possible into Sunday morning,
with additional storms in the afternoon/evening. Due to lower
confidence in how both the cigs and shower/storm chances will
evolve on Sunday, have kept thing generic at the moment, mostly in
the MVFR to VFR category with a light shower mention.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021/

SHORT TERM...
Scattered severe thunderstorms and a risk for heavy/flooding rain
are at the center of today's forecast. A Flood Watch remains in
effect for the entire CWA, valid from 6 pm this evening to 5 am on
Sunday.

An approaching positively tilted trough, surface boundaries and
abundant moisture will be the drivers behind tonight's active
weather. Aloft, decent southwesterly flow (around 30 knots at 500
mb) for late June is in place downstream of a broad trough extending
from the Upper Midwest through the Four Corners. A subtle
disturbance rounding the base of the trough over NM will emerge over
the region this evening. Before then, as weak frontal boundary
divides temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s across the southern
Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains from upper 80s and lower
90s across our southern zones. This effective frontal zone stalled
earlier and even retreated a bit, but is now seen on radar sagging
slowly southward from a Plains to Abernathy to Matador line as of
1915Z. This boundary could be the focus for isolated to widely
scattered storm development through the late afternoon hours, though
coverage with this is somewhat uncertain. Higher confidence exists
in CI along the dryline from southeast NM into the western Permian
Basin late this afternoon. This activity will develop east and
northeastward and move into at least our southern counties this
evening. MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg and effective bulk shear of 30-
50 knots will certainly support a severe threat with any robust
convection within the warm sector south of the front and east of the
dryline. Supercell and multicell modes will be capable of damaging
winds and pockets of large hail early on before growing upscale this
evening. In addition, PWATs ranging from around 1" near the TX/NM
line to >1.5" in the Rolling Plains will fuel intense rainfall rates
and the risk for flooding and flash flooding.

Additional thunderstorms already getting underway across the
higher terrain of NM will propagate east and southeastward and
will bring the risk for more heavy rain (and strong to damaging
winds) moving into the South Plains region late this evening. Some
of this rain could fall on spots that received heavy rain early
this morning across our northern counties. Although not everyone
will experience heavy rain between late this afternoon and Sunday
morning, many locations will likely see 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with isolated totals of 5+ inches possible. Hence, the reason for
the Flood Watch, valid from 23Z to 10Z.

The effective frontal zone will advance southward tonight, securing
lows mostly in the lower to middle 60s by Sunday morning. The post-
frontal air and plentiful cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler
tomorrow, with highs only in the 70s to lower 80s. The atmosphere
will remain moist on Sunday, and could support additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms as another weak embedded disturbance aloft
approaches. However, much more limited heating (and instability) and
weaker flow aloft than today will tend to limit storm intensity.
Even so, there could be pockets of slow-moving heavy rain, and
depending on how tonight plays out, additional flood highlights may
be needed.

LONG TERM...
Minimal changes to the long term forecast this afternoon. Upper
level pattern will be characterized by an Omega block across the
Pacific Northwest into southwestern Canada through the middle of the
week. This will keep upper level troughing in place across the
forecast area. Even when the block breaks down it will take a while
for the upper level troughing to be displaced eastward hence
troughing will remain in place through the end of the week.
Currently appears that the surface cold front should be just south
of the area by Sunday evening. As the LLJ increases this should lead
to additional moderate to potentially heavy rainfall across at least
the southern row of counties as warm air advection occurs over the
surface boundary. However, where exactly the front ends up after
today's convection will be the main driver as to where the
heaviest rainfall will occur Sunday night into Monday morning.
Mesoscale details will be affected by each round of precipitation
hence details are a bit blurry the farther out in time you go.
However, with upper level support remaining in place along with
anomalously high PWAT values additional shower and thunderstorm
chances will hang around for much of the extended forecast
although this does not mean the entire period will be a wash out.
With the cloud cover and precipitation this will also help to
keep temperatures below average for much of the upcoming week. An
additional cold front appears to approach the area towards the end
of the upcoming week which may be the focus for another round of
rainfall for the area. /WCI

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ021>044.

&&

23/58/23

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1043 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

TXZ021>044-271545-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1043 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
South Plains region late this afternoon. The initial activity will
be capable of producing wind gusts to 75 mph, hail to the size of
golf balls and very heavy rain. A tornado or two may also be possible
late this afternoon into the early evening hours. The thunderstorm
activity is expected to increase in coverage through the evening and
overnight hours. The greatest threat with this activity will be very
heavy rain and the risk for flash flooding, though damaging winds to
70 mph and quarter size hail may accompany the most intense cells. A
Flood Watch is in effect for the entire South Plains region from 6 PM
this evening until 5 AM Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heavy rain is possible Sunday across the region which may lead to
flooding. Additional chances for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall
will continue through the end of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
817 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW MULESHOE          34.21N 102.74W
06/26/2021  M61 MPH          BAILEY             TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100408

DWK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
818 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE MORTON            33.73N 102.74W
06/26/2021  M76 MPH          COCHRAN            TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100409

DWK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
839 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE AMHERST            34.02N 102.40W
06/26/2021  M66 MPH          LAMB               TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100410

DWK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
846 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE AMHERST            34.02N 102.40W
06/26/2021  M75 MPH          LAMB               TX   MESONET

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...EVENT

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100410

DWK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
851 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             MULESHOE WILDLIFE REFUG 33.95N 102.75W
06/26/2021  E2.00 INCH       BAILEY             TX   SOCIAL MEDIA

            VIDEO RECEIVED VIA TWITTER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100411

DWK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
853 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE AMHERST            34.02N 102.40W
06/26/2021  M76 MPH          LAMB               TX   MESONET

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...EVENT

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100410

DWK