Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Lubbock, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
657 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

.AVIATION...
Tricky set of TAFs with convection in the region through much of
the night and the possibility of sub-VFR cigs Sunday morning.
Storms so far this evening been dotted around KCDS and to the
southwest of KLBB. This more isolated activity could affect one or
more of the terminals over the next 2-3 hours, but it is unclear.
Thus, we have carried VCTS remarks and will amend the TAFs as
needed. More widespread convection will evolve through the late
evening into the early morning hours, spreading from west-to-east
over the region. Confidence is greater in direct terminal impacts
with this activity and we have tried to capture the most likely
timing of this convection with TEMPO groups. Strong and erratic
outflow winds and reduced visibility in heavy rain will occur as
the storms move through. Areas of showers and lower clouds
(perhaps MVFR to IFR) will then be possible into Sunday morning,
with additional storms in the afternoon/evening. Due to lower
confidence in how both the cigs and shower/storm chances will
evolve on Sunday, have kept thing generic at the moment, mostly in
the MVFR to VFR category with a light shower mention.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021/

SHORT TERM...
Scattered severe thunderstorms and a risk for heavy/flooding rain
are at the center of today's forecast. A Flood Watch remains in
effect for the entire CWA, valid from 6 pm this evening to 5 am on
Sunday.

An approaching positively tilted trough, surface boundaries and
abundant moisture will be the drivers behind tonight's active
weather. Aloft, decent southwesterly flow (around 30 knots at 500
mb) for late June is in place downstream of a broad trough extending
from the Upper Midwest through the Four Corners. A subtle
disturbance rounding the base of the trough over NM will emerge over
the region this evening. Before then, as weak frontal boundary
divides temperatures in the 70s and lower 80s across the southern
Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains from upper 80s and lower
90s across our southern zones. This effective frontal zone stalled
earlier and even retreated a bit, but is now seen on radar sagging
slowly southward from a Plains to Abernathy to Matador line as of
1915Z. This boundary could be the focus for isolated to widely
scattered storm development through the late afternoon hours, though
coverage with this is somewhat uncertain. Higher confidence exists
in CI along the dryline from southeast NM into the western Permian
Basin late this afternoon. This activity will develop east and
northeastward and move into at least our southern counties this
evening. MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg and effective bulk shear of 30-
50 knots will certainly support a severe threat with any robust
convection within the warm sector south of the front and east of the
dryline. Supercell and multicell modes will be capable of damaging
winds and pockets of large hail early on before growing upscale this
evening. In addition, PWATs ranging from around 1" near the TX/NM
line to >1.5" in the Rolling Plains will fuel intense rainfall rates
and the risk for flooding and flash flooding.

Additional thunderstorms already getting underway across the
higher terrain of NM will propagate east and southeastward and
will bring the risk for more heavy rain (and strong to damaging
winds) moving into the South Plains region late this evening. Some
of this rain could fall on spots that received heavy rain early
this morning across our northern counties. Although not everyone
will experience heavy rain between late this afternoon and Sunday
morning, many locations will likely see 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with isolated totals of 5+ inches possible. Hence, the reason for
the Flood Watch, valid from 23Z to 10Z.

The effective frontal zone will advance southward tonight, securing
lows mostly in the lower to middle 60s by Sunday morning. The post-
frontal air and plentiful cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler
tomorrow, with highs only in the 70s to lower 80s. The atmosphere
will remain moist on Sunday, and could support additional rounds of
showers and thunderstorms as another weak embedded disturbance aloft
approaches. However, much more limited heating (and instability) and
weaker flow aloft than today will tend to limit storm intensity.
Even so, there could be pockets of slow-moving heavy rain, and
depending on how tonight plays out, additional flood highlights may
be needed.

LONG TERM...
Minimal changes to the long term forecast this afternoon. Upper
level pattern will be characterized by an Omega block across the
Pacific Northwest into southwestern Canada through the middle of the
week. This will keep upper level troughing in place across the
forecast area. Even when the block breaks down it will take a while
for the upper level troughing to be displaced eastward hence
troughing will remain in place through the end of the week.
Currently appears that the surface cold front should be just south
of the area by Sunday evening. As the LLJ increases this should lead
to additional moderate to potentially heavy rainfall across at least
the southern row of counties as warm air advection occurs over the
surface boundary. However, where exactly the front ends up after
today's convection will be the main driver as to where the
heaviest rainfall will occur Sunday night into Monday morning.
Mesoscale details will be affected by each round of precipitation
hence details are a bit blurry the farther out in time you go.
However, with upper level support remaining in place along with
anomalously high PWAT values additional shower and thunderstorm
chances will hang around for much of the extended forecast
although this does not mean the entire period will be a wash out.
With the cloud cover and precipitation this will also help to
keep temperatures below average for much of the upcoming week. An
additional cold front appears to approach the area towards the end
of the upcoming week which may be the focus for another round of
rainfall for the area. /WCI

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 5 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ021>044.

&&

23/58/23

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1043 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

TXZ021>044-271545-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
1043 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
South Plains region late this afternoon. The initial activity will
be capable of producing wind gusts to 75 mph, hail to the size of
golf balls and very heavy rain. A tornado or two may also be possible
late this afternoon into the early evening hours. The thunderstorm
activity is expected to increase in coverage through the evening and
overnight hours. The greatest threat with this activity will be very
heavy rain and the risk for flash flooding, though damaging winds to
70 mph and quarter size hail may accompany the most intense cells. A
Flood Watch is in effect for the entire South Plains region from 6 PM
this evening until 5 AM Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heavy rain is possible Sunday across the region which may lead to
flooding. Additional chances for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall
will continue through the end of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
528 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

TXZ039-262300-
Yoakum TX-
528 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN COCHRAN AND NORTHEASTERN
YOAKUM COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 528 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Plains, moving north at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Cochran
and northeastern Yoakum Counties.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3339 10291 3339 10265 3337 10259 3336 10259
      3318 10274 3324 10294
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 199DEG 7KT 3328 10281

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
542 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     HAIL             9 SW TOKIO              33.09N 102.68W
06/26/2021  E1.00 INCH       YOAKUM             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100405

DWK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
710 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             1 E MORTON              33.72N 102.74W
06/26/2021  E0.88 INCH       COCHRAN            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100406

DWK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
711 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE MORTON            33.73N 102.74W
06/26/2021  M72 MPH          COCHRAN            TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB2100407

DWK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
711 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

TXZ042-270030-
Garza TX-
711 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GARZA COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM CDT...

At 709 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Justiceburg, or 12 miles northeast of Gail,
moving north at 15 mph.  This storm has a history of producing
gustnadoes.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Alan Henry and Justiceburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on Lake Alan Henry, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3314 10142 3309 10104 3297 10104 3296 10121
      3296 10144
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 192DEG 15KT 3293 10134

26