Special Marine Warning 55, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
430 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

Main focus currently is a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms which continues to move across the area this
morning. The line prompted several severe thunderstorm warnings
and a few tornado warnings issued as well. Line will continue over
the next hour or two across the metro New Orleans area and the
Mississippi coastal counties. Rainfall rates are becoming a
concern as well and are being handled with warnings as needed.

After the line moves through the area later this morning we will
get a bit of a reprieve before the next system approaches the area
by late Friday and into Saturday. Another round of severe weather
will be possible with the area outlooked from marginal near the
coast to enhanced in the northern part of the forecast area,
generally in the southwest Mississippi counties. The main threats
with these storms currently look to be primarily damaging straight
line winds, but large hail and a few tornadoes are certainly
possible as well. Heavy rainfall will also be a possibility over
the area, although the placement of the heaviest rainfall is
still somewhat uncertain. In summary, all modes of severe weather
and flooding will be possible.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)...

Going into Sunday we will see improving conditions following an
active Saturday, with weak high pressure building in from the
northwest. We transition into a quasi-zonal flow going into next
week, with a few weak impulses possibly producing some light
showers across the area but remaining on the mild side. Some
indications of a mid-week cold front with a reinforcing shot of
slightly cooler air to follow, but ridging will build back by late
week which will quickly reintroduce very warm temperatures with
continued dry conditions. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...

Have timed approximate arrival times of impacts to area TAF sites
per latest short-range guidance and observed trends which brings
this line across the region generally from after midnight for far
western areas, racing east to the MS coastline by 10-11Z. Expect a
broken line of thunderstorms to temporarily reduce flight
categories with gusty, erratic downdraft winds the main threat, as
well as periods of reduced VIS from heavy rain. This activity
will exit to the east after 12Z with only a few isolated SHRA
remaining across coastal SE LA and coastal MS, with improving
conditions/VFR flight categories expected thereafter into the day
on Thursday. KLG

&&

.MARINE...

Winds look to be easing below small craft exercise caution
criteria, once the shower and thunderstorm activity passes through
the coastal waters this morning. Therefore, opted not to extend
the exercise caution wording as winds should stay in the 10-15
knot range today. As the next system approaches the area tomorrow
and into Saturday, winds will increase again and headlines will
likely be needed again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  64  83  66 /   0  10  50  80
BTR  84  67  85  68 /   0  20  30  70
ASD  83  67  83  67 /  20  30  50  70
MSY  83  69  83  70 /  20  20  40  60
GPT  80  67  78  68 /  40  30  50  70
PQL  79  65  79  65 /  70  40  60  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
155 AM CDT THU APR 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 AM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NE DENHAM SPRINGS    30.60N 90.85W
04/08/2021                   LIVINGSTON         LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LIVINGSTING PARISH SHERIFF OFFICE RELAYED A REPORT OF
            ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOME ON THE WEST SIDE OF HIGHWAY 1019
            JUST SOUTH OF RAFE BALLARD ROAD. WATER WAS COMING INSIDE
            THE HOME DUE TO THE ROOF DAMAGE. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR.

&&

MEFFERSO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
204 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

LAZ039-072-075-076-MSZ077-080-081-080800-
Washington-Southeast St. Tammany-Northwest St. Tammany-Southern
Tangipahoa-Harrison-Hancock-Pearl River-
204 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ST. TAMMANY...EAST
CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON PARISHES...
NORTHWESTERN HARRISON...NORTHERN HANCOCK AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES...

At 203 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Varnado to 6 miles north of Abita
Springs to near Robert. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Slidell, Bogalusa, Picayune, Covington, Poplarville, Pearl River,
Abita Springs, Madisonville, Sun, Crossroads, Stennis Space Center,
Bush, Mcneil, Kiln, Lacombe, Saucier and Slidell Airport.

LAT...LON 3065 8934 3065 8925 3068 8924 3068 8912
      3052 8926 3027 8974 3046 9037 3056 9012
      3092 8978 3093 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 0703Z 273DEG 33KT 3087 8977 3056 9005 3046 9038

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
254 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

LAZ057>061-063-064-069-070-077-078-080900-
Lower Plaquemines-Western Orleans-Upper St. Bernard-St.
Charles-Eastern Orleans-Lower St. Bernard-St. John The Baptist-St.
James-Upper Plaquemines-Upper Lafourche-Upper Jefferson-
254 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...SOUTHEASTERN ST. JAMES...NORTHWESTERN ST. BERNARD...ST.
CHARLES...ORLEANS...NORTH CENTRAL LAFOURCHE...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON
AND NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISHES...

At 254 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Wallace, or 8
miles southwest of Reserve, moving east at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Orleans, Reserve, Metairie, Hahnville, Laplace, Marrero,
Chalmette, Avondale, Harvey, East New Orleans, Timberlane, Belle
Chasse, Jefferson, Gretna, Harahan, Westwego, Gramercy, Lutcher,
Montz and Ama.

LAT...LON 2983 9071 3009 9072 3011 9042 3006 9037
      3002 9011 3003 9003 3006 9003 3004 9000
      3013 8989 3010 8981 3014 8976 3014 8972
      3002 8973 3004 8982 3000 8985 2994 8982
      2995 8973 2992 8975 2990 8973 2974 8974
TIME...MOT...LOC 0754Z 266DEG 42KT 2996 9062

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
313 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

LAZ075-076-MSZ077-080-081-080915-
Southeast St. Tammany-Northwest St. Tammany-Harrison-Hancock-Pearl
River-
313 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ST.
TAMMANY PARISH...CENTRAL HARRISON...HANCOCK AND SOUTH CENTRAL PEARL
RIVER COUNTIES...

At 313 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Picayune to near Pearlington to 6
miles northwest of Lake Catherine. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Gulfport, Biloxi, Slidell, Long Beach, Picayune, Bay St. Louis,
Waveland, Diamondhead, St. Martin, D'iberville, Pearl River, Kiln,
Pearlington, Lyman, Shoreline Park, Stennis Space Center and Gulfport
Airport.

LAT...LON 3038 8907 3030 8927 3036 8928 3037 8935
      3034 8938 3032 8932 3025 8942 3018 8945
      3015 8958 3016 8962 3017 8958 3017 8972
      3022 8983 3028 8976 3053 8980 3055 8889
      3043 8888 3042 8901 3039 8886
TIME...MOT...LOC 0813Z 273DEG 36KT 3046 8971 3028 8968 3018 8980

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 AM CDT THU APR 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N KENNER              29.99N 90.25W
04/08/2021                   JEFFERSON          LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            KENNER EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED A REPORT FROM POLICE
            THAT THE INTERSECTION OF CHATEAU AND VINTAGE WAS
            IMPASSABLE BY AN SUV.

&&

MEFFERSO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
415 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

LAZ059>061-063>070-077-MSZ082-081015-
Lower Terrebonne-St. Charles-Upper Terrebonne-Lower Jefferson-Lower
St. Bernard-Lower Plaquemines-Western Orleans-Upper St. Bernard-Lower
Lafourche-Upper Plaquemines-Upper Lafourche-Upper Jefferson-Jackson-
415 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ST. BERNARD...SOUTHERN
ST. CHARLES...NORTHEASTERN TERREBONNE...CENTRAL LAFOURCHE...
JEFFERSON...NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISHES IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 415 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 8 miles southeast of Long Beach to 8
miles northeast of Shell Beach to near Gray. Movement was east at 65
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Houma, Cut Off, Galliano, Larose, Timberlane, Belle Chasse, Harvey,
Marrero, Port Sulphur, Lockport, Jean Lafitte, Mathews, Chauvin,
Poydras, Myrtle Grove, Raceland, Pointe A La Hache, Estelle, Montegut
and Bayou Cane.

LAT...LON 3002 8945 2989 8923 2976 8927 2964 8947
      2966 8945 2976 8963 2975 8965 2963 8949
      2961 8973 2956 8971 2954 8968 2937 9075
      2969 9102 2995 8971 2991 8974
TIME...MOT...LOC 0915Z 263DEG 55KT 3030 8905 2994 8956 2964 9080