Areal Flood Warning 36, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
451 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 450 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2021

Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge extended across
portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico to the Bahamas with a
trough extending from Canada south into the eastern Conus while
another upper level ridge extended into much of the western Conus.
The 500 mb trough axis is currently nearing East KY. Locally,
winds have been gusty behind the front that crossed the area this
morning. These gusts are occurring between the departing deep low
pressure system to the east and northeast of the area and a ridge
of high pressure centered over OK but that extended into the mid
and upper MS Valley region. A few recent gusts into the 30 to 40
mph range have been observed. Drier air is being advected into the
region on the northwest winds, with dewpoints having dropped into
the 30s across the area so far.

This evening and tonight, the 500 mb trough axis will move east of
the area with height rises to follow as upper level ridging moves
across the southern Conus through the end of the period. Sfc high
pressure meanwhile will build into the lower OH Valley tonight
with the axis of the high shifting east of the area to end the
period. This will lead to dry weather through the short term
period, with winds slackening this evening and tonight. Drier and
colder air moving into the area will set the stage for colder lows
tonight than what has occurred in several days. Lows should reach
the upper 20s to low 30s on average and frost formation is
anticipated late as winds slacken. Some impact might occur to any
early blooming vegetation that is not protected.

Temperatures on Monday should be a couple of degrees below
normal, but plenty of sunshine is observed. This will allow for
lower humidities than the past few days bottoming out in the 20s.
Winds however will be light near the axis of the sfc ridge.
Southerly winds on ridges coupled with valleys decoupling in the
evening should lead to a favorable patter for a ridge valley split
with a fairly steep inversion anticipated on Monday night. The
normally colder eastern and southeastern valleys should make run
toward the freezing mark while ridgetop and more open terrain are
not expected to drop below around 40 or the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2021

To issues of note to speak of in the extended. First, the
potential for well below temperatures and frost, and the rain
chances from Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning. Based
on the latest trends in the model data, it appears likely that we
will see freezing to sub freezing temperatures Wednesday night,
Thursday night, and Friday night. As such, we can expect patchy to
perhaps widespread frost around the area each of those nights and
early Thursday, Friday, and Saturday mornings. The valley
locations will be most prone to frost since those areas will see
the coldest temperatures.

An area of low pressure will move through the region Tuesday
evening through early Thursday morning. The best time for rain
will be during frontal passage late Tuesday through Wednesday
morning. A few thunderstorms may pop up around the area Wednesday
morning through early Wednesday afternoon. The precipitation will
taper off from west to east Wednesday evening and night. As this
occurs, and colder air spills into the area behind the departed
cold front, we may see rain mixing with or changing to snow for a
brief period. Any snowfall accumulations will be very light, with
no impacts expected.

As for temperatures, they will be all over the place through out
the period, with a couple of days seeing well below normal highs
in the 40s and 50s and a few other days with well above normal
highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Nightly lows will be
in the 20s and lower 30s a few nights, leading to frost formation.
The other nights in the extended should see normal or above normal
lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2021

A few showers and MVFR ceilings and some localized IFR in the
highest terrain lingered at issuance time across the southeast
portion of the area under uslope northwest flow at issuance time.
The showers will end by 20Z with improvement into the VFR range
in all areas by around 21Z as the northwest winds usher drier air
into the region. These winds have gusted at upwards of 30KT across
portions of the region and winds will remain gusty in the 20 to
30KT range during the first 4 to 6 hours of the period. A slightly
higher peak gust is possible. VFR should prevail the entire
period at the TAF sites. High pressure building into the region
will lead to diminishing winds overnight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
404 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-292315-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
404 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

High water or instances of river flooding will continue through
tonight along portions of the Cumberland, Kentucky, and Big Sandy
River basins.

Frost is expected to develop late tonight, and could be
widespread in spots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

High water and some instances of river flooding will continue
through Monday on portions of the Cumberland, Kentucky and Big
Sandy River basins.

Thunderstorms are possible in some locations during the day
Wednesday.

Frost will again be possible in the deeper valleys early Tuesday
morning. Another cold snap is expected by late this week, when
temperatures could drop into the 20s behind a departing system
both Thursday and Friday nights.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report occurrences of flooding.

JP/AR