Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
632 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 408 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Scattered thunderstorms this morning with strong gusty winds
should become more isolated this afternoon. More storms are likely
at times tonight through Friday before cooler and dry conditions
prevail this weekend. High temperatures should be around 90 today
and Thursday with heat indices as high as 105 today and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 408 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Thunderstorms were redeveloping early this morning as low level
theta E air was surging northeast. CAPE/instability values were
limited, but precipitable water values remained very high. Have
favored the 3km NAM and HRRR which were finally getting a handle
on this storm development. Expect strong gusty winds and locally
heavy rain from these storms early this morning. There should be a
break in the activity this afternoon before more storms develop
or move into the area tonight associated with the next wave. Have
continued with a heat advisory today with heat index values of 98
to 105. Given recent rains and very high evapotranspiration, it
is likely dew points will rise to 80 or 81 over at least some
areas by early afternoon as happened yesterday. Given highs around
90, heat indices will be around or above 100 degrees with local
readings above 105 degrees. Have coordinated the heat advisory
with surrounding offices.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 408 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

More storms are possible Thursday through Friday night as a very
humid airmass remains over the region. Precipitable water values
will remain high through Friday and bring the potential for heavy
rains from thunderstorms. Otherwise, cooler and drier conditions
will prevail this weekend behind a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

25-40kt LLJ and vigorous theta-e advection had resulted in numerous
storms redeveloping overtop prior outflow bubble. Expect these will
persist a bit beyond daybreak before weakening/pushing east of the
terminals. Otherwise skies will generally clear by aftn as strong
heating deepens mixing and promotes aoa 20kt swrly gusts. Thereafter
next upstream disturbance likely again to push a vigorous convective
line sewd across the terminals this evening. Will attempt some
implied timing invof KSBN given propensity for svr storms there.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ003>009-012>018-020-
     022>027-032>034.

MI...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MIZ077>081.

OH...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...T

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1225 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-121630-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
1225 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 /1125 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/
THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Heat Advisory.

Expect scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon with
damaging winds and very heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. The storms may be
accompanied by strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

Afternoon heat index values are expected to range from 98 to 105
degrees Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please send reports via
social media as our office phone lines are down.

LMZ043-046-121630-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
1225 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. The storms may be
accompanied by strong winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
846 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W ABOITE              41.00N 85.36W
08/11/2021                   HUNTINGTON         IN   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWNED DUE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORM
            WINDS.

&&

MCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
853 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N ROLLING HILLS       41.05N 85.27W
08/11/2021                   ALLEN              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A LARGE TREE FELL INTO A HOME.

&&

MCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
857 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1251 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE FORT WAYNE         41.05N 85.12W
08/11/2021                   ALLEN              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE BRANCHES DOWNED IN
            THE AREA.

&&

MCS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1122 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

INZ003-012-014-111600-
La Porte IN-Marshall IN-Starke IN-
1122 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Starke, western
Marshall and southwestern La Porte Counties through NOON EDT/1100 AM
CDT/...

At 1122 AM EDT/1022 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Dunns Bridge, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  North Judson around 1130 AM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Knox, Hamlet,
Plymouth and Culver.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4135 8693 4143 8638 4119 8628 4117 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1522Z 262DEG 33KT 4124 8689

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1200 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

INZ003>005-012>016-MIZ077-111630-
La Porte IN-Kosciusko IN-St. Joseph IN-Marshall IN-Fulton IN-
Elkhart IN-Starke IN-Pulaski IN-Berrien MI-
1200 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Elkhart,
St. Joseph, northern Pulaski, northwestern Fulton, northwestern
Kosciusko, Starke, Marshall, La Porte and south central Berrien
Counties through 1230 PM EDT/1130 AM CDT/...

At 1159 AM EDT/1059 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near La Porte to near
Plymouth to near Rochester. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Plymouth and Argos around 1205 PM EDT.
  Bremen and Bourbon around 1215 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include New Carlisle,
South Bend, Warsaw, Nappanee, Winona Lake, Buchanan and Roseland.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 38 and 79.
 Interstate 94 in Indiana between mile markers 33 and 45.
 Interstate 94 in Michigan between mile markers 0 and 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EDT/400 PM
CDT/ for north central and northwestern Indiana...and southwestern
Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4171 8693 4173 8691 4188 8641 4149 8593
      4122 8582 4115 8636 4115 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1559Z 248DEG 41KT 4160 8681 4132 8634 4113 8627

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CM

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