Special Marine Warning 15, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
126 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 820 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

More storms are likely at times tonight through Friday before
cooler and dry conditions prevail this weekend. High temperatures
will be around 90 Thursday with heat indices around 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Convective complex currently moving exiting eastern CWA and will
to move east of the area shortly. HRRR seems to be best among the
HREF members in handling this early afternoon convection so will
lean that way for potential redevelopment tonight where ongoing
convection in WI still expected to intensify this afternoon in the
presence of highly sheared environment ahead of approaching mid-
level short wave. Still anticipate organization into a more linear
complex as it moves down into SE WI...NE IL...SW lwr MI...with
plenty of uncertainty in severe threat for our area after being
worked over this afternoon. In the wake of whats left of nocturnal
complex tonight will once again see very warm...humid airmass in
place and with decreasing clouds expect ample destabilization in
the daytime hours leading to convective initiation to our west and
tracking E/SE along baroclinic zone to potentially impact our
area late Thursday/Thursday night. Hot and humid conditions
expected again on Thursday with highs near 90 and dewpoints in the
low to mid 70s will have heat indices approaching 100 in SE CWA
so will consider having advisory in effect during the afternoon-
early evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Forecast period to begin with final push of frontal boundary through
our area on Friday. Timing will dictate if any diurnal instability
can develop in SE CWA before front moves through. Latest trends from
deterministic models in line with SREF in early arrival for frontal
passage that should preclude any threat for strong to severe storms.
Canadian high pressure building in behind this front will bring much
less humid conditions to the region as dewpoints drop into the 50s
Saturday. Pleasant...dry weather continues into the beginning of
next week with precip chances arriving toward the end of the period
as remnants of TS Fred drift northward through the Appalacians.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

Uncertain near term owing to renewed convective development across
wrn-ne IL attm and potential downstream ramifications going forward.
00Z based CAMS not particularly helpful although recent HRRR
suggestion looks on target. Upstream mass convergence ahead of sfc
cold front and in association with upper trough in WI aiding storm
development within a very unstable airmass aloft. Low level capping
inversion present in most midwest UA soundings yet apparently
weakening enough in tandem with strong LLJ in place to force renewed
development which with time should fill in/organize with ewd extent.
Some attendant svr risk should storms root into this moist/unstable
boundary layer and will monitor closely upstream evolution. For now,
will just tempo a IFR/MVFR cat storm based restriction early
this morning.

In wake of this, most of today expected to be quiet or until this
aftn as strong destabilization and potential influence of sw trough
aloft leads to another round of storms. Will address that potential
in 12Z fcst.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...T

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1225 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-121630-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
1225 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 /1125 AM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/
THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Heat Advisory.

Expect scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon with
damaging winds and very heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. The storms may be
accompanied by strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

Afternoon heat index values are expected to range from 98 to 105
degrees Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please send reports via
social media as our office phone lines are down.

LMZ043-046-121630-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
1225 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday. The storms may be
accompanied by strong winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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