Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
113 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 749 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Hot and humid weather continues through Thursday, with periodic
thunderstorms. Some storms may become severe Wednesday night. A cold
front moves through Friday, followed by cooler and drier conditions
for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

Broad troughing over central Canada is responsible for a series of
shortwaves that will move through the region triggering
thunderstorms over the next few days. Isolated storms are possible
this afternoon and evening, especially to the southwest. Much of the
eastern half of the forecast area is under transitory ridging, which
has strengthened the capping inversion. There is considerable low-
level CAPE given very moist warm air advection coming up from the
Gulf, with dewpoints in the upper 70s to low 80s, but persistent low
and mid-level cloudiness may also provide enough insulation to
prevent widespread diurnal initiation. There is also a lack of shear
and upper level support until the next shortwave moves in from the
west late this evening.

There are differences in timing among the base models and CAMs, but
expect an MCS to move in sometime after 9PM with storms possibly
continuing into Wednesday morning, especially south of US 30. Strong
winds and heavy rain are the biggest threats with an approaching EML
and substantial DCAPE over 1000 J/kg, as well as PWs in excess of 2
inches.

Convection will dissipate and move south of the area by afternoon,
leaving behind another hot and humid day on Wednesday. Heat index
values will rise to around 95-103 degrees and a Heat Advisory
will again be issued.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

The upper trough will shift east on Wednesday night, bringing a cold
front in from the northwest with another round of convection.
This front will stall over the area on Thursday, meaning storms will
again be possible. Hot and humid conditions will also persist. The
front does not push south until Friday when the upper trough deepens
over the eastern US, and sends much cooler and drier air into the
region. High pressure builds in behind the trough on Monday and
Tuesday, allowing moisture to increase and the potential for diurnal
storms increases mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 113 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Isolated shower/storm early this morning atop outflow bubble however
convective overturning should prove detrimental. Otherwise primarily
VFR this period as capping takes hold again daytime. Next upstream
disturbance looks to arrive this evening and spawn renewed
convective development upstream across WI which is then expected to
turn sewd. CAMS implied timing suspect at this range and will await
later model guidance before taking a stab at a mention.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Heat Advisory from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
   Wednesday for INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MIZ077>081.

OH...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ001-002-
004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...Cobb
LONG TERM...Cobb
AVIATION...T

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
926 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

INZ003>009-012>016-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-120130-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-
926 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021 /826 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 421 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT /2 AM CDT/
WEDNESDAY...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EDT /NOON CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT
/7 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Thunderstorms are possible each day Wednesday through Friday. There
is a chance the storms may become severe each day with damaging
winds and very heavy rain the greatest threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

LMZ043-046-120130-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
926 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 421 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

Thunderstorms are possible each day Wednesday through Friday. The
storms may be accompanied by strong winds.

INZ017-018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ002-004-005-015-016-024-025-120130-
Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-
Grant-Blackford-Jay-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-
Van Wert-Allen OH-
926 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered storms are possible overnight. Severe weather
is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Thunderstorms are possible each day Wednesday through Friday. There
is a chance the storms may become severe each day with damaging
winds and very heavy rain the greatest threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1234 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRAND BEACH             41.77N 86.79W
08/10/2021                   BERRIEN            MI   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: TREES UPROOTED OR
            SNAPPED.

&&

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1238 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

INZ008-009-017-018-110500-
Whitley IN-Noble IN-De Kalb IN-Allen IN-
1238 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Allen,
southeastern Noble, northeastern Whitley and southwestern De Kalb
Counties through 100 AM EDT...

At 1237 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Churubusco, or near Columbia City, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Churubusco around 1240 AM EDT.
  Fort Wayne and Huntertown around 1255 AM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include New Haven.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 469 between mile markers 22 and 30.
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 307 and 325.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for
northeastern Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 4109 8544 4131 8536 4132 8490 4108 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 0437Z 275DEG 31KT 4117 8537

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

PBM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1256 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

INZ009-018-026-027-034-OHZ004-015-024-110545-
Jay IN-Adams IN-De Kalb IN-Wells IN-Allen IN-Defiance OH-Van Wert OH-
Paulding OH-
1256 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Allen,
southeastern De Kalb, eastern Wells, Adams, northeastern Jay, central
Defiance, Paulding and Van Wert Counties through 145 AM EDT...

At 1255 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from St. Joe to near New Haven to near Bluffton.
Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Hicksville around 105 AM EDT.
  Monroeville around 110 AM EDT.
  Berne and Antwerp around 115 AM EDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Geneva, Convoy,
Paulding, Van Wert and Ohio City.

This includes Interstate 469 near mile marker 6, and between mile
markers 9 and 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM EDT for
northeastern Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 4067 8530 4106 8510 4141 8496 4129 8432
      4077 8445 4073 8449 4073 8480 4048 8480
TIME...MOT...LOC 0455Z 300DEG 35KT 4132 8493 4104 8505 4071 8521

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PBM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
118 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S LEO-CEDARVILLE      41.16N 85.02W
08/11/2021                   ALLEN              IN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 3-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            POWER POLES BROKEN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
121 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW SHOREHAM          42.04N 86.52W
08/10/2021                   BERRIEN            MI   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS 6 INCH DIAMETER LIMBS DOWN.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
122 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

OHZ004-005-015-016-024-025-110545-
Henry OH-Allen OH-Putnam OH-Defiance OH-Van Wert OH-Paulding OH-
122 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Putnam,
Defiance, eastern Paulding, western Henry, eastern Van Wert and
southwestern Allen Counties through 145 AM EDT...

At 121 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Defiance to near Van Wert
to 7 miles southeast of Geneva. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Van Wert around 125 AM EDT.
  Defiance around 135 AM EDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Delphos, Kalida,
Holgate and Ottoville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 8419 4069 8431 4068 8446 4073 8446
      4073 8462 4140 8462 4145 8410
TIME...MOT...LOC 0521Z 270DEG 33KT 4134 8450 4095 8459 4054 8485

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PBM