Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
355 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Main forecast challenge: Thunderstorm chances over the next few
days.

As of late this afternoon, a weak surface front extended from
near the Oklahoma Panhandle across east-central Kansas to central
Missouri. Will maintain a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms in
south-central/southeast Kansas Tonight where modest 925-850 mb
convergence is progged with higher precipitable water of 1.5-1.75
inches. Even though any storms that manage to develop are expected
to be isolated to widely separated in coverage, they would be
high-efficiency rainfall producers. Other convection clusters are
expected to continue developing over the central High Plains
through this evening, with a south-southeastward propagation
overnight. Will maintain a 15-20% probability for thunderstorms
in central KS for late tonight into Saturday morning, although
better chances for storms should be over the High Plains.

Otherwise not much change expected for Saturday-Saturday night with
the front lingering over southern Kansas, with humid conditions and
slight chances for a thunderstorm.

The short-medium range guidance indicates that upper level high
pressure will develop and strengthen over the Rockies Sunday into
Monday, with a mean longwave upper trough in the eastern CONUS. A
shortwave is progged to slide south-southeastward along the
eastern periphery of the Rockies High, across the Central Plains
Sunday into Monday. This shortwave will encounter anomalously high
moisture across the Central Plains and should lead to higher
chances of a thunderstorm complex or two moving through our
forecast area. At this juncture, Sunday night appears to have the
highest storm chances. This wave should also push the front
southward out of Kansas by Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Medium range models are in good agreement indicating that the
Rockies upper-level high will tend to persist. After some modest
relief from the heat and humdity early in the week, temperatures
will slowly modify back to around seasonal climatology by
Thursday/Friday. Will maintain dry weather during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

* Conditional TSRA risk through tonight (southern KS)
* Increased risk of TSRA this weekend

The low CIGs from earlier today continue to mix out and rise,
although MVFR conditions will linger a bit longer into the afternoon
hours. It's possible low CIGs/VIS could redevelop tonight with moist
low-levels and an easterly, upslope flow. However, confidence wasn't
high enough to go with MVFR, or lower, conditions just yet.
Regarding the TSRA potential, a few TSRA may be able to redevelop
this afternoon through this evening across parts of southern Kansas,
but the risk appears too conditional for a mention in the TAFs for
now. Additionally, TSRA developing over the High Plains may attempt
to approach north-central KS tonight, but similarly, confidence is
too low for a mention.

EXTENDED PLANNING OUTLOOK: A frontal boundary draped across the area
may continue to support a risk for TSRA through the weekend.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  89  70  88 /  20  20  20  40
Hutchinson      69  90  68  89 /  20  20  20  40
Newton          69  88  69  87 /  20  20  20  40
ElDorado        69  88  69  87 /  20  20  20  40
Winfield-KWLD   70  90  70  89 /  30  20  20  40
Russell         67  90  68  88 /  20  20  40  40
Great Bend      69  89  68  87 /  20  20  30  40
Salina          68  91  68  90 /  10  20  30  40
McPherson       68  89  68  87 /  10  20  20  40
Coffeyville     69  88  70  89 /  30  20  20  30
Chanute         70  87  70  87 /  20  20  20  30
Iola            69  87  69  85 /  10  20  20  30
Parsons-KPPF    70  88  70  88 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1045 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-171545-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1045 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may redevelop this afternoon or
this evening across parts of southern Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periodic chances for thunderstorms will continue across the region
Saturday through Monday. A handful of strong to marginally severe
storms are possible during this period, along with pockets of very
heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

ADK/REM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1036 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N CHANUTE             37.68N 95.46W
07/16/2021  M7.52 INCH       NEOSHO             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            24-HOUR TOTAL.

&&

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     FLOOD            3 S YATES CENTER        37.82N 95.74W
07/16/2021                   WOODSON            KS   911 CALL CENTER

            DELAYED REPORT. COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED
            NUMEROUS FLOODED ROADS AROUND THE COUNTY.
            TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON PREVIOUS REPORTS.

&&

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     FLOOD            4 SSE FREDONIA          37.48N 95.79W
07/16/2021                   WILSON             KS   911 CALL CENTER

            DELAYED REPORT. DISPATCH REPORTED
            SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS THE COUNTY. TIME
            ESTIMATED BASED OFF PREVIOUS REPORTS.

&&

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
331 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     FLOOD            3 S YATES CENTER        37.82N 95.74W
07/16/2021                   WOODSON            KS   911 CALL CENTER

            DELAYED REPORT. COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED
            NUMEROUS FLOODED ROADS AROUND THE COUNTY.
            TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON PREVIOUS REPORTS.

0430 AM     FLOOD            4 SSE FREDONIA          37.48N 95.79W
07/16/2021                   WILSON             KS   911 CALL CENTER

            DELAYED REPORT. DISPATCH REPORTED
            SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS THE COUNTY. TIME
            ESTIMATED BASED OFF PREVIOUS REPORTS.

0500 AM     FLOOD            PARSONS                 37.34N 95.28W
07/16/2021                   LABETTE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UP TO 12 WATER RESCUES REPORTED IN AND
            AROUND PARSONS, KS.

0500 AM     FLOOD            3 N THAYER              37.53N 95.47W
07/16/2021                   NEOSHO             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER RESCUE REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

0713 AM     FLOOD            4 ENE LABETTE           37.26N 95.12W
07/16/2021                   LABETTE            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WALLACE ROAD, SOUTH OF 21000 RD, WAS NOT
            PASSABLE.

0931 AM     FLOOD            1 E PARSONS             37.34N 95.25W
07/16/2021                   LABETTE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER THE MAIN STREET BRIDGE JUST EAST
            OF 10TH STREET. FROM LABETTE CREEK OVERFLOW.

&&

MARTIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
429 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

KSZ083-092-162200-
Sumner KS-Sedgwick KS-
429 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Sumner County in south central Kansas...
  Southwestern Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...

* Until 500 PM CDT.

* At 427 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Viola, or near Conway
  Springs...moving southeast at 5 mph.

* Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
  possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Clearwater, Conway Springs and Viola.

LAT...LON 3754 9780 3759 9758 3735 9737 3729 9770
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 337DEG 6KT 3747 9763

BUTLER