Areal Flood Warning 45, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
247 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Numerous clusters of showers/thunderstorms will continue to impact
southeast Kansas through about mid-morning. The culprits are deep
moist convergence along/north of a stalled frontal zone, ahead of
shortwave energy approaching from the northwest. Mid-upper flow
remains parallel to the frontal zone, supporting training storms,
amidst above average precipitable water values...all supportive of
locally very heavy rainfall and flooding concerns. Thinking the
flood watch expiration at 10 AM this morning will be good, although
will probably cancel north/northwest counties early.

Will likely also see some patchy to areas of fog early this morning,
mainly northwest of the KS Turnpike corridor, given low dewpoint
depressions and favorable easterly upslope flow. Setup would appear
favorable for at least some patchy dense fog, so will need to
monitor for possible dense fog advisory.

Shortwave trough sweeping southeast this morning along with merging
cold pools likely aiding the frontal zone's southward push should
keep most afternoon-evening storm chances just south of the forecast
area across Oklahoma, although did dribble low PoPs across southeast
KS to account for the more northerly RAP solution. Also dribbled
some low PoPs into central/north-central KS later tonight to account
for High Plains activity rolling southeast, although thinking better
chances will remain across western KS.

Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast Saturday
through Monday, as the region remains on the eastern fringes of the
stout western CONUS ridge, favoring periodic shortwaves in the
mid/upper flow aloft traversing Mid-america. While this type of
thunderstorm pattern makes for challenging PoP forecasts, wondering
if the greatest storm chances will be generally Sunday through
Monday, when a more substantial upper wave approaches from the
north.

All-in-all, widespread severe weather appears unlikely Saturday
through Monday due to poor lapse rates and modest (at best) deep
layer shear. However, typical summertime combination of
instability/shear should support the threat for a handful of
strong to marginally severe storms. Of greater concern will be
pockets of heavy rainfall and localized flooding, given above
average precipitable waters and the potential for multiple rounds
of storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

While some differences exist, deterministic and ensemble mean
consensus supports fairly quiet weather (thunderstorm-wise) much of
next week, as upper ridging slowly builds in from the west.
Meanwhile, retrograding upper energy across the southern CONUS
undercutting the western/central CONUS ridge should also support
cooler than normal temperatures for at least Monday-Tuesday, with
readings warming back closer to normal for the 2nd half of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

Concerns:
1) Scattered thunderstorms across southern KS
2) Patchy to areas of fog in north central KS
3) IFR and MVFR ceilings

Scattered thunderstorms persist across southern Kansas tonight.
The bulk of the activity is staying east of the TAF sites except
of course KCNU as depicted by current radar. This convection is
anticipated to linger through the overnight into the morning hours
across southeast Kansas with moisture continuing to pool in to a slow
nearly stationary boundary.

Low level moisture combined with an upslope component are expected
to result in fog development across north central Kansas around 9Z
into the morning hours. This was continued from the previous
forecast but expanded in timing and further reduction in
visibility given the latest model guidance. KGBD and KRSL have the
best potential with the possibility of patchy fog reducing
visibilities down to 1/4 to 1/2 mile. The eastward and southern
extent is the next question. This low level moisture brings in IFR
and MVFR ceilings which should impact all sites at some point, but
it is a matter to what degree. The challenges are in the short
term and first six to twelve hours; amendments are anticipated.
Diminishing cloud cover should occur in the afternoon. Winds
should stay from 5-10kts and generally out of the easterly
direction.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    89  70  89  70 /   0  10  30  30
Hutchinson      90  68  90  68 /   0  10  30  30
Newton          88  68  88  69 /   0  10  20  30
ElDorado        87  68  88  69 /  10  10  30  30
Winfield-KWLD   90  70  90  70 /  10  20  30  30
Russell         89  67  90  68 /   0  20  30  40
Great Bend      89  68  89  68 /   0  20  30  30
Salina          90  67  91  68 /   0  10  20  30
McPherson       89  67  89  68 /   0  10  30  30
Coffeyville     88  70  88  70 /  60  20  30  20
Chanute         86  71  87  70 /  40  20  20  20
Iola            85  70  87  69 /  40  10  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    87  70  88  70 /  60  20  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ052-053-068>072-
093>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...VJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
906 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-170215-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
906 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to continue through
tonight. These thunderstorms will be capable of intense rainfall
rates, flooding and strong winds gusts of 50 to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms will continue to be possible Friday afternoon through
Monday with a continued risk of flooding and strong wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
937 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

KSZ096-100-160330-
Labette KS-Neosho KS-
937 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Labette County in southeastern Kansas...
  Neosho County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 1030 PM CDT.

* At 936 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  strong thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall along a line
  extending from near Redfield to near St. Paul to 7 miles north of
  Cherryvale...and moving southeast at 30 mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Parsons, Oswego, Erie, Altamont, St. Paul, Mound Valley, Walnut,
  Galesburg, Labette, Stark, Lake Parsons, Parsons Tri City Airport,
  Dennis, Big Hill Lake and South Mound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may produce ponding of water on roadways. Listen for
later statements or possible flood warnings...should the risk for
minor low-land flooding become more imminent.

&&

LAT...LON 3712 9552 3739 9553 3758 9534 3773 9522
      3773 9509 3712 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 301DEG 26KT 3778 9485 3745 9517 3737 9553

KETCHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1041 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

KSZ100-160415-
Labette KS-
1041 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Labette County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 1115 PM CDT.

* At 1040 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles north of Oswego...moving
  southeast at 30 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Oswego and Labette.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 9528 3738 9518 3738 9508 3711 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0341Z 298DEG 26KT 3727 9515

KETCHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1113 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

KSZ093-160515-
Cowley KS-
1113 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northern Cowley County in south central Kansas...

* Until 1215 AM CDT.

* At 1112 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was
  tracking a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall over
  Burden, or 10 miles northeast of Winfield...moving east at 30 mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Winfield, Burden, Dexter, Atlanta, Rock, Cambridge and Winfield
  City Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The storms are not expected to become severe.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3725 9705 3748 9705 3748 9688 3747 9653
      3710 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 280DEG 24KT 3734 9679

KETCHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
105 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 W THAYER              37.49N 95.57W
07/16/2021  M5.10 INCH       WILSON             KS   PUBLIC

            TOTAL RAINFALL REPORT OF 5.1 INCHES SINCE
            6PM WHICH WAS SENT VIA TWITTER.

&&