Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
235 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist off the Southeast coast, resulting in
a typical summertime pattern across the region this week. Abundant
moisture ahead of an approaching cold front will enhance coverage
of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoons and evenings.
The front is forecast to stall over the area this weekend,
maintaining good chances for rainfall.  A tropical system could add
to our rainfall in the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2:15pm EDT Tuesday:  Thunderstorms, with a few possibly
reaching severe levels, are anticipated this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon. A large upper low remains in place centered over Central
Canada, with a circulation that extends marginally down into the
Southern States. Dynamics over the GSP area are quite weak, with
scarcely any deep layer shear. Upper and lower high pressure lies
off the Atlantic Coast, giving light to variable mostly southerly to
southwesterly flow to the region. Synoptic features have small
changes over the next 24 hours, with upper North American low making
some slight eastward progress. Southerly flow will keep dewpoints
and temperatures several degrees above normal. Afternoon MLCAPE
levels will be around 1000 j/kg today and tomorrow, with very little
shear or forcing to help things along.  Still, instability levels
are sufficient for a severe storm or 2 in afternoon heating. High-
res models indicate some uptick in strength of storms Wednesday
afternoon relative to today, possibly due to marginally improved
upper dynamics.  Slow movement of storms today and tomorrow suggest
some chance for isolated flooding if storms linger too long in one
location.

Convection today and tomorrow should fade after sunset.  With high
dewpoints and some areas with recent rain, fog has been forming in
mountain valleys overnight, which is expected again tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday: A deep trough over the upper Midwest will
persist through the short term, while the Bermuda high will nudge
slightly westward in response to a building subtropical ridge over
the eastern CONUS.  On Thursday, as the ever-weakening boundary
draped across the Southeast pushes northward, southerly surface
flow will strengthen, advecting a plume of moisture into the region.
PWATs should climb well into the 1.7"+ range by Thursday afternoon.
With SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg across the Piedmont and Upstate,
we'll be in store for another round of diurnally-driven pulse
convection.  In the absence of any discernible lifting mechanism,
and with midlevel drying promoting higher LFCs, widespread
convection should be somewhat suppressed.  Still, we're likely to
see isolated to scattered showers and thunder across the forecast
area, and with increasingly dry midlevels, a few of these storms
could produce downbursts.  The latest guidnace doesn't suggest
surface-to-700mb delta-theta-e values will be quite high enough
for a serious microburst threat, but the potential for some gusty
straight-line winds is there.

Friday will be a similar, if somewhat enhanced, scenario.  Guidance
depicts a 500mb shortwave rotating across the deeper trough over
the course of the day, resulting in increased DPVA and driving
increased PoPs beginning Friday afternoon.  Coverage of convection
should be enhanced on Friday afternoon as well - model consensus
points to SBCAPE in the 800-1200 J/kg range, and profiles should
be moister in the midlevels than on Thursday, making them more
conducive to convective initiation.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday: PoPs continue to increase into Saturday as
a front pushes into the southeast CONUS.  By now, moister profiles
and falling heights should allow for widespread rainfall ahead
of the front; although cloud cover should be building Saturday,
somewhat hindering destabilization, it's likely we'll see some
embedded thunder in the afternoon.  Once again, localized heavy
rain will present a flooding concern.  As the frontal zone reaches
us on Sunday, we'll ramp up to ever-higher PoPs in the morning.

Early next week, all the global models agree we'll come under
the influence of PTC 6.  Although there remain significant track
differences between models and to some extent from run to run,
the general consensus is that the system will track up the west
Florida coast before turning more northward.  What local impacts
we'll face is unclear, though heavy rain and ensuing flooding
is certainly a possibility, especially as the extensive rainfall
we'll have received prior to PTC 6's arrival should have raised
soil moisture and primed the ground for flash floods.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to
develop all areas this afternoon, and will potentially impact any
airport in the region through 00Z.  Convective instability is a
little higher than previous days, with possibly strong to severe
outflow winds from these storms.  Winds outside of effects of storms
are light to variable, with a south to southwest bias due to surface
high east of the region.  Surface pattern changes little through
Wednesday.  Fog is again expected this morning in the same places
where it occurred this morning, principally mountain valleys.  As
KAVL fell to 1/4sm this morning, will be a little more aggressive on
forecast fog for that location.

Outlook: Diurnal shower/thunderstorm activity remains in the
forecast the rest of the week.  Fog and low stratus will be possible
each morning, particularly over mountain valleys and areas primed
by rainfall from the previous evening.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High  95%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High  95%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
522 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-110400-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
522 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area today, with the
greatest coverage during the afternoon. Any of these storms will be
capable of dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning as well as heavy
downpours. Localized flash flooding may result.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Wimberley

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
337 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

NCZ052-053-064-065-102000-
Buncombe NC-Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-Henderson NC-
337 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...SOUTHWESTERN HENDERSON...SOUTHEASTERN
HAYWOOD AND SOUTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 337 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of an area of
heavy rain with intense lightning along a line extending from 11
miles east of Waynesville to 3 miles southeast of Brevard. This heavy
rain nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Brevard, Mount Pisgah, Looking Glass, Dupont State Forest, Etowah,
B.R. Parkway-Mount Pisgah To The Nc Arboretum, Little River In
Transylvania County, Cruso, Penrose and Connestee.

In addition to intense lightning, very heavy rainfall rates up to 2
inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 8272 3521 8254 3517 8275 3546 8290
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 329DEG 4KT 3542 8280 3522 8268

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
355 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

NCZ053-065-505>510-102030-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Greater Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-
Polk Mountains NC-Eastern McDowell NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Eastern Polk NC-
355 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern
McDowell, northwestern Rutherford, northeastern Henderson,
northwestern Polk and southeastern Buncombe Counties through 430 PM
EDT...

At 355 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles east of Downtown Asheville to 11 miles
north of Columbus. Movement was west at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marion, Black Mountain, Swannanoa, Lake Lure, Old Fort, Chimney Rock
Village, Chimney Rock State Park, Bat Cave, B.R. Parkway-Craggy To
Little Switzerland and Fairview In Buncombe County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near Lake Lure, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3578 8197 3539 8192 3535 8235 3571 8243
      3573 8229 3572 8228 3570 8228 3570 8226
      3573 8219 3575 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 078DEG 28KT 3564 8236 3541 8220

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
357 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

NCZ048-053-102030-
Buncombe NC-Madison NC-
357 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Madison
and northwestern Buncombe Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 357 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marshall, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Leicester, Canto and Luck.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3572 8287 3584 8282 3580 8257 3565 8268
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 288DEG 16KT 3576 8270

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
358 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

SCZ013-014-102030-
Union SC-Chester SC-
358 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Chester
and east central Union Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 358 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Chester, or 6 miles east of Carlisle, moving east
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carlisle, Leeds and Santuc.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 8156 3472 8130 3456 8120 3457 8142
      3456 8142 3453 8143
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 248DEG 7KT 3461 8134

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
406 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ010-NCZ062-063-SCZ001-102030-
Rabun GA-Southern Jackson NC-Macon NC-Oconee Mountains SC-
406 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Rabun,
southeastern Macon, south central Jackson and northeastern Oconee
Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 405 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles north of Walhalla, or 6 miles west of Devils Fork State Park.
This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Salem, Devils Fork State Park, Lake Keowee, Lake Jocassee, Highlands
and Bad Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If on or near Lake Jocassee, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 8310 3506 8305 3505 8306 3503 8301
      3504 8297 3502 8292 3501 8291 3501 8293
      3499 8294 3495 8291 3491 8290 3485 8290
      3496 8320 3504 8323
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 295DEG 3KT 3497 8305

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CAC