Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
559 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and tonight/

Thunderstorms accompanied a southward moving cold front and
outflow boundaries overnight as they encountered moist and
unstable air in place across North Texas. Some storms were ongoing
east of the I-35 corridor early this morning with some locally
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Most of this activity
should weaken after sunrise with the loss of the low level jet,
however, daytime heating and the arrival of a subtle mid level
shortwave should spark additional convection this afternoon and
evening. We will keep the highest PoPs across our Central Texas
zones, but the entire region has at least some chance of seeing a
thunderstorm today. There will be a potential for some strong to
severe storms due to the amount of instability and shear expected,
but the favored area will all hinge on exactly where the front
ends up this afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will continue tonight
with some isentropic upglide, especially across the southwest
zones.

Even though clouds will be abundant today, temperatures should
still manage to make it into the 80s for most locations. Lingering
clouds and very little in the way of cold air advection behind the
front will keep overnight lows generally in the 60s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 338 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021/
/Saturday Onward/

The extended portion of the forecast continues to be unsettled
given the overall weather pattern in place across the United
States. Rain chances will be heavily dependent on previous days'
convection, therefore, pinpointing location of highest
precipitation remains a bit uncertain.

As we start the day on Saturday, a boundary will likely be in
place from the Texas Panhandle down toward Central Texas. Areas
north and northeast of the boundary will likely remain fairly dry
and subsident throughout much of the day. Areas south and
southwest of this boundary, however, will be in an unstable, warm
and humid airmass. This could lead to a few showers and storms in
the afternoon. All rain chances should be ending by sunset,
leaving behind a precipitation free night.

Another shortwave will be moving across the Southern Plains on
Sunday, likely firing off additional storms across West Texas and
the Panhandle. These storms will likely make a run for our western
counties later in the afternoon and evening, but with little
instability to sustain the convection, storms should gradually
decay. A similar scenario will occur on Monday, but the
shortwave's trajectory will likely push much of the precipitation
out of North and Central Texas and into Oklahoma.

The highest rain chances will likely arrive late Monday night
through the first half of Tuesday. A cold front will be pushing
southward as a shortwave moves overhead. Sufficient forcing for
ascent, coupled with plentiful moisture should lead to fairly
widespread precipitation. With the potential for heavy rain,
saturated soils from the days of rain will cause quick runoff once
again renewing the flooding potential.

Ensembles are in fairly good agreement with a deep trough or even
a cut-off low developing just south of Arizona the latter half of
next week. This is likely to continue the shortwave train through
the end of the week, periodically raising precipitation chances.
On a positive note, high temperatures the rest of the week should
run between 5-15 degrees below normal for this time of the year.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

The primary aviation weather concern through Saturday morning will
be thunderstorm timing/placement and MVFR/IFR ceilings this
morning early Saturday morning.

The overnight convection continues to slide southeast of the
Metroplex TAF sites and will have no immediate impacts at the
terminals this morning. It does appear that additional convection
will fire on a weak cold front across Central Texas later today,
keeping the best thunderstorm potential at ACT this afternoon/evening.
North of the boundary, thunderstorms will also be possible this
afternoon/evening as a weak mid level shortwave interacts with
moist and unstable air. Therefore, we will keep VCTS mentioned in
the Metroplex TAFs between 22Z and 01Z.

Otherwise, MVFR/high end IFRE ceilings across Central Texas this
morning should temporarily reach the Metroplex TAF sites between
about 12Z and 16Z. Ceilings should lift above 3000 ft before
midday and remain VFR between 3500 and 5000 ft through late this
evening. MVFR ceilings should likely return early Saturday
morning.

Wind direction will be a bit tricky due to the the numerous
outflow boundaries currently in place and expected later today as
well as the strength of the front. But overall expect an east to
northeast wind at speeds generally less than 10 knots. The
exception to this will be at ACT where the wind should be more
southeasterly this morning until the front slides through.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    84  65  78  65  80 /  40  40  30   0  10
Waco                85  68  79  66  79 /  40  60  50   5  10
Paris               81  61  76  59  75 /  10  20  10   0   5
Denton              81  61  76  62  78 /  40  30  20   5  20
McKinney            82  63  77  62  78 /  40  30  20   0  10
Dallas              85  67  79  66  80 /  40  40  30   0  10
Terrell             83  64  77  62  78 /  40  40  30   0   5
Corsicana           84  67  79  65  80 /  50  60  50   5   5
Temple              85  66  79  65  80 /  40  60  60   5  10
Mineral Wells       82  63  77  64  78 /  60  50  30   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
619 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-291130-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
619 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There will be a threat for strong to severe storms today southeast of
I-20 and west of I-35. Large hail, damaging winds and flooding will
be a threat. Additional storms will be possible overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Additional thunderstorms are possible through the first half of next
week. Any storms during this time period could contain strong wind
gusts and heavy rainfall that may result in flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
800 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NW PONDER             33.25N 97.41W
05/28/2021                   WISE               TX   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT SEVERAL LARGE TREES
            UPROOTED OR LARGE BRANCHES DOWN IN DENTON
            CREEK FARMS AND IN A NEARBY NEIGHBORHOOD.
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
925 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N DECATUR             33.30N 97.59W
05/28/2021                   WISE               TX   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF SEVERAL TREES
            UPROOTED OR LARGE BRANCHES DOWN 5 MILES
            NORTH OF DECATUR. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1002 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

TXZ130-281515-
Erath TX-
1002 AM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ERATH COUNTY UNTIL 1015
AM CDT...

At 1002 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dublin, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

 Locations impacted include...
Stephenville and Dublin.

LAT...LON 3227 9841 3224 9805 3203 9811 3211 9845
TIME...MOT...LOC 1502Z 284DEG 17KT 3217 9835

Dunn