Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
803 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

There are two areas of ongoing showers and thunderstorms we are
monitoring this evening. To our west, dryline convection has
developed and continues to move toward our far western counties.
To our north, showers and thunderstorms have developed along a
slowly southward moving cold front. The 00Z FWD sounding reveals a
stout cap in place near 750 mb, and this is also seen on GOES-16
satellite imagery as cumulus clouds across the region this
afternoon/evening remained flat.

North and Central Texas should remain rain/storm-free at least
through the next 2-3 hours, but we'll start to see high clouds
associated with the thunderstorms to our west stream in. The
dryline thunderstorms should weaken as they approach our far
western counties as they encounter some of the subsidence aloft.
However, the line of thunderstorms across Oklahoma will likely
reach the Red River closer to 9-10PM, the DFW Metroplex closer to
11PM-12AM, and areas south of the I-20 corridor after 1AM. It's
highly likely this line will have an established cold pool, so any
inhibition across our region won't have a major effect as it
moves across North Texas. WoFS and high res guidance are in
general agreement on the line of thunderstorms pushing through
North Texas after midnight and possibly through Central Texas by
early Friday morning. Damaging winds and hail continue to be the
main threat as this line moves across the region overnight, as
well as heavy rainfall given the soils remain saturated from
recent rains.

The forecast for Friday still remains uncertain as the cold front,
currently extending across Oklahoma, is expected to stall across
our region. If the line of thunderstorms exits Central Texas
Friday morning, it's likely we'll see a few hours of rain-free
weather through early Friday afternoon. However, additional
showers and thunderstorms may develop along and south of the
stalled frontal boundary Friday afternoon. Based on the latest
guidance, it looks like the highest chances are generally south of
I-20 and there is a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms
once again. Further adjustments to the short term forecast will
be made overnight and tomorrow, so be sure to check back for
updates.

Garcia

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 353 PM CDT Thu May 27 2021/
/Friday Night through Thursday/

Friday night's forecast is heavily dependent upon the intensity of
tonight's complex of storms as there is quite a bit of variability
among the guidance. As of this writing, we'll keep relatively high
PoPs in the forecast, particularly south and southwest of the
Metroplex. If tonight's complex is particularly strong, then
outflow and the associated frontal boundary may get pushed well
south and storm chances would be considerably lower. This is
suggested by the latest NAM guidance and we'll continue to adjust
PoPs accordingly. Any convective activity should continue to move
southeast through early Saturday morning with a generally quiet
afternoon. High temperatures will top out in the lower 80s on
Saturday.

It looks like the active pattern will continue into at least the
middle of next week with persistent troughing over the western
CONUS. This will result in primarily diurnally driven convective
development off to our west each afternoon and evening. Some of
these storms will move into our far western counties Sunday night
with the coverage of storms increasing on Monday and Monday night
across the region. A slow moving upper trough will remain out over
northwest Mexico into midweek. Ample moisture and instability each
day will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms through
Wednesday. Sporadic severe weather will be possible over the next
7 days with a continued threat for isolated flash flooding.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR and southerly flow prevails at this time across all the
terminals. Radar and satellite imagery depict convection is
ongoing along the dryline in west Texas and across Oklahoma along
a southward moving cold front. The dryline convection is not
expected to impact the terminals, but high clouds will continue to
stream in from the west. The line of thunderstorms in Oklahoma
will likely reach the Metroplex terminals closer to 4-5Z and
continue to move southward overnight. For Waco, introduced VCTS
at 9Z, but confidence on this timing is slightly lower and we'll
continue to adjust as needed. Expect periods of reduced visibility
and gusty to strong winds as the line impacts the terminals.

Expect another round of MVFR ceilings after 8-9Z and persisting
through 16-17Z with VFR prevailing through the remainder of the
period. Showers and thunderstorms may develop once again Friday
afternoon, but confidence on VCTS/VCSH was too low to warrant a
mention at this time.

Garcia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  84  65  79  64 /  90  50  40  20   5
Waco                71  85  68  81  66 /  50  60  50  40   0
Paris               67  81  60  78  57 / 100  30  20  20   5
Denton              66  81  61  78  60 /  90  40  30  20   5
McKinney            68  82  63  78  61 / 100  30  30  20   0
Dallas              71  86  67  80  65 /  90  40  40  20   0
Terrell             68  83  64  80  61 / 100  40  40  30   5
Corsicana           71  84  67  80  63 /  70  60  50  30   5
Temple              70  85  66  81  65 /  30  60  50  40   5
Mineral Wells       67  82  63  78  62 /  60  60  40  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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