Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Fort Worth, TX

287 
WWUS54 KFWD 311952
SVSFWD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
252 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

TXC429-312001-
/O.CAN.KFWD.SV.W.0195.000000T0000Z-210531T2030Z/
Stephens TX-
252 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN STEPHENS COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
central and north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3252 9858 3264 9858 3271 9806 3211 9809
      3213 9865
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 272DEG 32KT 3251 9849 3212 9848 

$$

TXC093-133-143-363-312030-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0195.000000T0000Z-210531T2030Z/
Erath TX-Eastland TX-Palo Pinto TX-Comanche TX-
252 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN ERATH...NORTHEASTERN EASTLAND...SOUTHERN PALO PINTO
AND NORTH CENTRAL COMANCHE COUNTIES...

At 251 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Strawn to De Leon, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...65 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Stephenville, Gordon, Huckabay, Morgan Mill, Strawn and Mingus. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection stay inside a sturdy structure and keep away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3252 9858 3264 9858 3271 9806 3211 9809
      3213 9865
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 272DEG 32KT 3251 9849 3212 9848 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...65MPH
 
$$

12

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
137 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday/

After an early round of showers and storms containing isolated
pockets of very heavy rainfall this past morning, the next in line
of mid level impulses is now moving east across West TX (and SW
OK) toward the forecast area. The aforementioned morning clouds
and storms have made forecasting high temperatures and PoPs quite
problematic, as environmental conditions are slowly expected to
recover across North Texas this afternoon and evening with S or SE
winds 5 to 15 mph with highs ranging from the lower 70s northwest
and immediate Red River Valley, to between 75 and 80 degrees
along the I-20 (and I-30 in the East) corridors.

Central TX saw little in the way of impacts from morning convection
and will remain the warmest and most unstable, especially those
areas along and west of Highway 6. These areas will see highs
pushing into the lower-middle 80s with MLCAPE values between
1000-1500 J/KG, which lessens as you move further north and east.
Meanwhile, deep layer, westerly bulk shear on the order of 35-40
knots is expected to combine with this instability and approaching
lift for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by
tonight. A band of strong thunderstorms containing locally heavy
rainfall will continue to move east-southeast across the area,
especially impacting areas south of Highway 380. Due to previous
rainfall and the potential for run off, areas along and north of
I-20 and generally west of US-75 will remain in a Flash Flood
Watch through 7 AM CDT Tuesday morning.

As this semi-linear complex of showers and storms approaches the
more unstable airmass that's recharging west of I-35 and
especially along/south of I-20, I would expect a few severe storms
containing damaging winds to be realized with a few clusters and
bowing structures. I don't expect the hail threat to be too
egregious, as lapse rates aloft aren't overly steep after some
convective interruption this morning and initial subsidence behind
the morning mid level disturbance. Still, hail up to quarter, or
possibly half dollar size will be possible with values between
6.5-7 deg C/km. In addition, I can't rule out a brief spin up
tornado or two considering the expected differential heating
combining with fairly strong S/SW, 0-1km flow between 20 and 30
knots and old outflow boundaries around.

By late evening and into the overnight hours, look for an linear
MCS (or possible QLCS) to evolve across Central TX, before
weakening before daybreak Tuesday with a lessening threat for
strong to severe storms. Low level wind fields will be veering
and weakening, along with the MCS entering a more unfavorable
early morning environment off our S/SE CWA boundary. Lows should
be mostly in the 60s, though a few readings in the lower 70s may
remain across the mid-lower Brazos and Trinity River Valley where
convection and outflows likely won't be realized until around
sunrise.

I do expect more rural areas from DFW to the Red River Valley and
out west to see enough radiational effects to produce some patchy
fog. Otherwise, Tuesday should be a relatively more quiet day
with regard to convection, as mass subsidence takes hold with a
subtle cold front dropping south through the area. Highs should
range from the mid 70s to lower 80s, so don't expect much of a
cool down.

05/

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 252 AM CDT Mon May 31 2021/
/Tuesday Onward/

A line of convection will be ongoing (east of I-35) as we begin
the day on Tuesday. This line of showers and storms will likely be
decreasing in strength through the morning hours on Tuesday, but
heavy rain will continue to be a threat nonetheless. Well above
normal soil moisture will lead to quick runoff, increasing the
flooding potential.

The front responsible for tonight's high rain chances will likely
stall somewhere along or just south of I-20 Tuesday. Afternoon
destabilization may lead to renewed convection along and ahead of
the front. With lapse rate around 7-7.5 degrees C/km and pockets
of instability around 1500 K/kg, a few strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out east of I-35. If storms do develop, the main
hazards would be damaging winds and a few instances of hail.

Another shortwave will be rounding the base of the upper trough
Tuesday night, likely leading to another batch of more widespread
precipitation south of I-20. Given the nocturnal nature of the
storms and a rather unimpressive low-level jet, brief heavy rain
will be the main hazard. With the antecedent rainfall expected
today and tonight, tomorrow night's rain may lead to renewed
potential for flooding.

The main upper trough will be moving east of our region by
Thursday, but unfortunately that trough will be quickly replaced
by another trough to our west. The low-level wind field is likely
to increase out of the south, allowing for a quick return of
moisture through the region. This may lead to occasional warm-air
advection showers and a few storms Thursday and Friday.

The global numerical guidance is now closing off the
aformentioned upper trough into a cut-off low as the jet stream
shifts into the northern parts of the country. With the jet stream
far removed from the cut-off low, a nearly stationary source of
ascent may continue to impact the region through the end of the
week. Just how much and what time the rain will fall remains in
question given the rain chances will be driven by the smaller
scale features left over from previous rainfall. The one aspect of
the forecast with higher confidence will be the continuation of
the below normal temperatures we've been experiencing across North
and Central Texas. Overall, highs will be in the 70s and 80s,
which would be somewhere around 5-10 degrees below normal for this
time of the year.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

Similar to the past few weeks, challenges continue to be timing of
showers and storms and cig trends/wind directions with storm
outflows, etc.

After a round of morning RA/SHRA and isolated TS, another
shortwave disturbance to the west of the D10 and Waco Regional
Airport continues to generate a line(band) of new TSRA development
our near KABI/KBKD/and KGZN, or to the west of US-281 and the KMWL
area. Convective washout has resulted in cigs varying from IFR to
VFR across the D10, as well as Waco Regional.

The approaching mid level disturbance and associated diurnal TSRA
containing +RA will continue to move east toward the D10 airports
by/after 21z. Highest impacts from TS are generally expected to
be in a window between 22z-04z, before subsidence settles in. I
will advertise prevailing high MVFR/low VFR cigs through that
time, with a TEMPO TSRA and low MVFR cigs, with heavier rainfall
dropping vsbys down into the IFR category. The main impacts will
be westbound air traffic, with especially the Glen Rose cornerpost
being impacted. The Bowie cornerpost could see some impacts as
well through this evening, but confidence is lower. The problem
lies with the CAMs and other short-term high-res guidance
struggling on overall convective evolution. Winds should prevail
from S-SE around 10 knots or less, but with variable gusts 20 to
40 knots in/near storms.

By 06z Tuesday and beyond, subsidence in behind our late day
system should take hold with VCSH still possible into the pre-dawn
hours, but overall a lowering of cigs into IFR/low MVFR category.
More significant VSBY drops should remain to the W/NW of the
airports, but will need to be watched closely through tonight.
The prevailing S/SE winds 10 knots or less "should" veer W/WSW in
behind the expected linear MCS that evolves this evening across
the region. Cigs and vsbys are expected to prevail within the MVFR
category by mid-morning Tuesday and beyond.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  68  80  65  83 / 100  90  60  30  30
Waco                82  69  82  67  80 /  50  70  70  50  60
Paris               73  67  78  63  79 /  50  90  90  40  30
Denton              73  66  79  61  80 / 100  90  50  30  30
McKinney            76  67  80  63  81 / 100  90  70  30  30
Dallas              79  68  81  67  83 / 100  90  60  30  30
Terrell             79  68  81  64  80 /  50  80  80  40  40
Corsicana           80  69  81  67  81 /  40  60  70  50  50
Temple              80  69  83  66  79 /  30  50  60  50  60
Mineral Wells       77  65  76  61  80 / 100 100  40  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ091>094-100>104-
115>120-129>134-141.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1218 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011145-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
1218 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon
and through tonight. A few strong to severe storms containing hail
and strong winds are possible, especially along and south of
Interstate 20 where where warmer temperatures and higher instability
will exist.

Any additional heavy rainfall may lead to a few instances of flash
flooding across portions of North Texas, especially by tonight where
a Flash Flood Watch is in effect through early Tuesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible east of I-
35 Tuesday afternoon, with mainly a strong to damaging wind threat.
Storm chances will continue through the rest of the week. Any heavy
rain may lead to flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Very limited spotter activation may be needed late today and this
evening across Central Texas. Also, any reports of flooding or flash
flooding are greatly appreciated.