Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
831 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Now through Tuesday/

A complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to move through
North and Central Texas at this hour. Latest RAP objective
analysis indicates around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE across our far
southeast counties, so a strong wind gust still can't be ruled out
with the strongest storms in that area. Elsewhere, a very moist
airmass remains in place and efficient rainfall production has
led to heavy rainfall and flash flooding across the region. As the
main shortwave responsible for this activity continues to move
east, most of the showers and thunderstorms should push out of our
area later tonight. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure is
centered just north of Wichita Falls with a cold front draped
across central Oklahoma into West Texas. This front will slide
southward overnight and could be a source for additional
convective development, however, instability is waning in the wake
of this afternoon's complex and chances appear to be diminishing.
We've lowered PoPs overnight across the region, although we'll
keep some 30-40% PoPs along the front through the overnight hours.
Any additional rainfall will result in continued flooding issues.

Latest guidance continues to suggest that the front will push
through our area early tomorrow and despite weak large scale
ascent, we'll remain generally precipitation free. While it should
be noticeably less active, we'll keep some low rain/storm chances
along the front across our southern counties. Rain chances should
increase again late tomorrow night as another surge of moisture
spreads northward.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 303 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021/
/Tuesday night through next Monday/

The main story of the extended portion of the forecast continues to
be the daily precipitation chances across North and Central TX
through the next weekend. The combination of the rain and clouds
will keep the temperatures below average with highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s and lows generally in the mid/upper 60s to near 70
degrees.

The highest precipitation chances will slowly shift to East and
Central TX Tuesday night into Wednesday as the weak cold front
settle over this area. For the rest of us, expect spotty showers and
storms with a coverage between 20-30% throughout the day on
Wednesday. There's a chance that our region remains precipitation-
free during the day due to some subsidence in the wake of the front.

A couple of disturbances will travel across our region late week and
into the weekend, as the upper level trough continues its way to
the east and another mid-level low pressure settle over the
southwest CONUS and northern Mexico. This will keep PoPs in the
forecast through his weekend, with best chances across Central TX.
At this time, flooding rainfall will be the main concerns throughout
the week with heavy rain possible each day. However, we can't
rule out some brief gusty winds with some of the stronger storms.
Flash flooding issues will likely increase each across those
locations that see multiple rounds of heavy rain throughout the
next several days.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR prevails across the Metroplex at this hour in the wake of
heavier rainfall, and the 00Z Fort Worth sounding shows quite a
bit of dry air below 10,000 ft. Given all of the rainfall and
diminishing winds, we should see reductions in cig/vis during the
overnight hours. We'll continue with IFR cigs after midnight and
assess this through the late evening as vis restrictions may be
the bigger issue toward morning. Wind fields were northerly
earlier but have recovered in the wake of convection and are
primarily easterly now. We should see a gradual shift to northerly
winds as the front moves through late tonight.

Cigs/vis will improve during the day Tuesday with VFR prevailing
by afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  80  65  83  66 / 100  20  30  30  20
Waco                68  80  66  80  65 / 100  30  50  60  30
Paris               66  78  63  79  62 / 100  30  20  30  20
Denton              64  76  60  81  62 /  90  20  20  30  20
McKinney            66  78  62  81  63 / 100  30  20  30  20
Dallas              68  81  67  83  67 / 100  30  30  40  20
Terrell             66  79  64  81  64 / 100  30  30  40  30
Corsicana           69  81  66  81  66 / 100  30  50  50  30
Temple              67  80  65  80  65 / 100  20  50  60  30
Mineral Wells       64  76  60  81  63 /  80  10  30  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>094-100>104-
115>120-129>134-141.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
818 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
818 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through late this evening
across parts of North and Central Texas. Heavy rainfall and flash
flooding will be the main threats as grounds are saturated. The
strongest storms could produce some gusty winds and frequent
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms mainly south of I-20 on Tuesday.
Additional heavy rainfall may result in instances of flooding and
flash flooding as well.

Storm chances will continue the rest of the week into next weekend.
Any additional heavy rainfall may lead to more instances of flooding
and flash flooding.

In addition, any heavy rainfall will result in rapid run off into
into mainstream rivers and lakes with additional flooding possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
521 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

TXZ133-134-145-146-159-312300-
Ellis TX-Hill TX-Johnson TX-Navarro TX-McLennan TX-
521 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MCLENNAN...EAST
CENTRAL JOHNSON...HILL...SOUTHERN ELLIS AND WESTERN NAVARRO COUNTIES
UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 520 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Maypearl to Carl's Corner to 8 miles west
of West. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

 Locations impacted include...
Waxahachie, Corsicana, Ennis, Hillsboro, West, Italy, Itasca,
Grandview, Hubbard, Maypearl, Blooming Grove, Dawson, Bardwell, Alma,
Barry, Bynum, Carl's Corner, Gholson, Garrett and Milford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
central and north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3181 9670 3181 9673 3172 9692 3173 9731
      3175 9728 3176 9731 3182 9730 3183 9728
      3185 9729 3209 9722 3239 9718 3240 9654
      3210 9650
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 268DEG 41KT 3233 9709 3209 9707 3177 9723

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
601 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

TXZ134-145>147-161-010000-
Ellis TX-Limestone TX-Freestone TX-Hill TX-Navarro TX-
601 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FREESTONE...
SOUTHEASTERN HILL...NORTHWESTERN LIMESTONE...CENTRAL ELLIS AND
NAVARRO COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 559 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Waxahachie to 6 miles
south of Blooming Grove to 10 miles southwest of Hubbard. Movement
was east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and torrential rainfall is occurring with
these storms. Heavy rain may lead to localized flooding and ponding
on roadways. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

 Locations impacted include...
Waxahachie, Corsicana, Ennis, Mexia, Italy, Kerens, Hubbard, Wortham,
Coolidge, Trinidad, Blooming Grove, Dawson, Bardwell, Angus, Alma,
Barry, Navarro, Rice, Frost and Retreat.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
central and north central Texas.

LAT...LON 3178 9618 3169 9641 3160 9686 3182 9701
      3200 9690 3234 9693 3235 9645 3230 9630
      3226 9629 3225 9624 3220 9619 3221 9615
      3218 9618 3216 9617 3215 9612 3210 9612
      3208 9611 3208 9606 3204 9607 3202 9605
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 270DEG 31KT 3232 9680 3200 9670 3171 9689

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
607 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W WEATHERFORD         32.76N 97.80W
05/31/2021                   PARKER             TX   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO OF FLASH FLOODING
            OCCURRING ON SOUTH MAIN STREET.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
719 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W LAKESIDE            32.83N 97.58W
05/31/2021                   PARKER             TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING AT FM 1886 AND
            SILVER CREEK. WATER FLOWING COMPLETELY OVER
            ROAD.

&&

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