Alert archive / Texas / River Flood Warnings in 2021
River Flood Warning 90, NWS Fort Worth, TX
NWS Fort Worth, TX issued this river flood warning at May 31, 2021, 8:20 PM CDT for Ellis County, Navarro County, Texas. It took effect at Jun 1, 2021, 12:43 PM CDT. It was in force for 21 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 31, 2021, 8:20 PM CDT (01:20 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jun 1, 2021, 12:43 PM CDT
- Expired
- Jun 2, 2021, 9:13 AM CDT
- In force
- 21 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Fort Worth, TX
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Moderate
Counties Ellis County, TX, Navarro County, TX
The radar
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Chambers Creek near Rice (RCET2). The gauge peaked at 23.88 ft at Jun 2, 2021, 6:00 AM CDT.
- Action stage
- 22 ft
- Minor stage
- 24 ft
- Moderate stage
- 27 ft
- Major stage
- 30 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 08064100, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
605
WGUS44 KFWD 010120
FLWFWD
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
820 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021
...The National Weather Service in Fort Worth TX has issued a Flood
Warning for the following rivers in Texas...
East Fork Trinity River At McKinney affecting Collin County.
Sister Grove Creek Near Blue Ridge affecting Collin County.
Chambers Creek Near Rice affecting Navarro and Ellis Counties.
Trinity River At Dallas affecting Dallas County.
Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood) affecting Freestone,
Anderson and Leon Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
&&
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/fwd.
TXC113-011930-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FL.W.0087.210601T0253Z-210604T1000Z/
/DALT2.1.ER.210601T0253Z.210601T1800Z.210603T2200Z.NO/
820 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the Trinity River At Dallas.
* Until late Thursday night.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Monday the stage was 29.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage late this evening
and crest at 37.5 feet tomorrow afternoon. It will fall below
flood stage Thursday evening.
* Impact...At 38.0 feet, Moderate flooding will begin along the
river both above and below the Commerce Street bridge.
&&
LAT...LON 3275 9693 3281 9693 3283 9683 3275 9671
3269 9676 3278 9687
$$
TXC085-011930-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FL.W.0088.210601T0440Z-210602T2331Z/
/MCKT2.1.ER.210601T0440Z.210601T1200Z.210602T1130Z.NO/
820 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the East Fork Trinity River At McKinney.
* From this evening to Wednesday evening.
* At 7:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 12.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late
this evening to a crest of 17.6 feet tomorrow morning. It will
then fall below flood stage Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Minor out of bank flooding will begin along
the river.
&&
LAT...LON 3325 9654 3315 9649 3315 9661 3322 9667
$$
TXC085-011930-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FL.W.0089.210601T0443Z-210602T2004Z/
/BVWT2.1.ER.210601T0443Z.210601T1200Z.210602T0803Z.NO/
820 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the Sister Grove Creek Near Blue Ridge.
* From this evening to Wednesday afternoon.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Monday the stage was 20.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late
this evening to a crest of 26.1 feet tomorrow morning. It will
then fall below flood stage early Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet, Moderate out of banks flooding can be
expected. Farm and ranch interests near the creek will be
moderately flooded.
&&
LAT...LON 3329 9641 3325 9641 3325 9654 3329 9654
$$
TXC139-349-011930-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FL.W.0090.210601T1743Z-210604T0400Z/
/RCET2.2.ER.210601T1743Z.210602T1200Z.210603T1600Z.NO/
820 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the Chambers Creek Near Rice.
* From Tuesday afternoon to Thursday evening.
* At 7:00 PM CDT Monday the stage was 9.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early
tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 28.0 feet Wednesday morning. It
will then fall below flood stage late Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet, Moderate out of bank flooding will occur
along the creek. A few rural roads will be flooded. Minor lowland
flooding is expected for farms and ranches downstream.
&&
LAT...LON 3227 9656 3218 9638 3211 9648 3217 9663
$$
TXC001-161-289-011930-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FL.W.0091.210602T1000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LOLT2.1.ER.210602T1000Z.210605T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
820 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood).
* From late Tuesday night until further notice or until the warning
is cancelled.
* At 7:30 PM CDT Monday the stage was 32.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early
Wednesday morning and continue rising to a crest of 38.4 feet
Friday evening.
* Impact...At 37.0 feet, Minor flooding of the Coffield Prison
agricultural land, and ranch and farm lands along the river, is
expected.
&&
LAT...LON 3173 9580 3149 9562 3150 9580 3170 9593
$$3 follow-up statements
038
WGUS84 KFWD 011933
FLSFWD
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
233 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...
East Fork Trinity River At McKinney affecting Collin County.
Sister Grove Creek Near Blue Ridge affecting Collin County.
Trinity River At Dallas affecting Dallas County.
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...
Denton Creek Near Justin affecting Denton County.
Chambers Creek Near Rice affecting Navarro and Ellis Counties.
Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood) affecting Freestone,
Anderson and Leon Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
&&
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/fwd.
TXC139-349-021345-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-210602T2230Z/
/RCET2.1.ER.210602T0503Z.210602T0600Z.210602T1030Z.NO/
233 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021
...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Chambers Creek Near Rice.
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 2:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 21.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage just
after midnight tonight to a crest of 24 feet just after midnight
tonight. It will then fall below flood stage late tonight.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet, Minor out of bank flooding will occur along
the creek. This will be a problem for some cattle and farm
industries.
&&
LAT...LON 3227 9656 3218 9638 3211 9648 3217 9663
$$
TXC085-021345-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-210602T2016Z/
/BVWT2.1.ER.210601T0322Z.210601T1730Z.210602T0816Z.NO/
233 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021
...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Sister Grove Creek Near Blue Ridge.
* Until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 2:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 26.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late
tonight and continue falling to 14 feet early Sunday afternoon.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet, Moderate out of banks flooding can be
expected. Farm and ranch interests near the creek will be
moderately flooded.
&&
LAT...LON 3329 9641 3325 9641 3325 9654 3329 9654
$$
TXC085-021330-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0088.000000T0000Z-210602T1323Z/
/MCKT2.1.ER.210601T0609Z.210601T1830Z.210602T0123Z.NO/
233 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021
...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
the East Fork Trinity River At McKinney.
* Until Wednesday morning.
* At 1:30 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 16.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage this
evening and continue falling to 5 feet early Sunday afternoon.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Minor out of bank flooding will begin along
the river.
&&
LAT...LON 3325 9654 3315 9649 3315 9661 3322 9667
$$
TXC113-021345-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0087.000000T0000Z-210603T1400Z/
/DALT2.1.ER.210601T0123Z.210602T0000Z.210603T0200Z.NO/
233 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021
...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late Thursday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Trinity River At Dallas.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 2:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 34.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 30.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise to 35.1 feet this evening. It will
then fall to 35.0 feet and begin rising again this evening. It
will rise to 35 feet this evening. It will then fall below flood
stage late tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet, Some low water crossings inundated with
cattle and grazing and low water areas under water.
&&
LAT...LON 3275 9693 3281 9693 3283 9683 3275 9671
3269 9676 3278 9687
$$
TXC121-020930-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-210602T0930Z/
/DCJT2.1.ER.210601T0652Z.210601T1200Z.210601T2130Z.NO/
233 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021
...The Flood Warning is now in effect until late tonight...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Denton Creek Near Justin.
* Until late tonight.
* At 2:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 10.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late
this afternoon and continue falling to 4 feet early Sunday
afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet, Minor out of bank flooding will occur to
farm and ranch lands near the creek.
&&
LAT...LON 3315 9726 3307 9715 3302 9727 3311 9738
$$
TXC001-161-289-021345-
/O.CON.KFWD.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LOLT2.2.ER.210601T0506Z.210604T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
233 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021
...The Flood Warning remains in effect...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood).
* Until further notice or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 1:30 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 39.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 42 feet
Thursday evening.
* Impact...At 42.0 feet, Moderate flooding of numerous ranches along
the river is expected. The Coffield Prison farm and ranch lands
will be moderately flooded.
&&
LAT...LON 3173 9580 3149 9562 3150 9580 3170 9593
$$569
WGUS84 KFWD 020141
FLSFWD
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
841 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021
...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...
East Fork Trinity River At McKinney affecting Collin County.
Chambers Creek Near Rice affecting Navarro and Ellis Counties.
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in
Texas...
Denton Creek Near Justin affecting Denton County.
Sister Grove Creek Near Blue Ridge affecting Collin County.
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...
Trinity River At Dallas affecting Dallas County.
Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood) affecting Freestone,
Anderson and Leon Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas.
Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.
&&
Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/fwd.
TXC085-020245-
/O.CAN.KFWD.FL.W.0089.000000T0000Z-210602T0141Z/
/BVWT2.1.ER.210601T0322Z.210601T1730Z.210602T0816Z.NO/
841 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021
...The Flood Warning for the Sister Grove Creek Near Blue Ridge has
been cancelled...
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Sister Grove Creek Near Blue Ridge.
* At 8 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 21.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 24 feet.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to fall. This
is the last forecast for this event.
&&
LAT...LON 3329 9641 3325 9641 3325 9654 3329 9654
$$
TXC121-020245-
/O.CAN.KFWD.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-210602T0141Z/
/DCJT2.1.ER.210601T0652Z.210601T1200Z.210601T2130Z.NO/
841 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021
...The Flood Warning for the Denton Creek Near Justin has been
cancelled...
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Denton Creek Near Justin.
* At 8 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 9.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 10 feet.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will continue to fall. This
is the last forecast for this event.
&&
LAT...LON 3315 9726 3307 9715 3302 9727 3311 9738
$$
TXC139-349-021945-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-210603T1130Z/
/RCET2.1.ER.210602T0505Z.210602T1200Z.210602T2330Z.NO/
841 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021
...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Thursday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Chambers Creek Near Rice.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 8 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 22.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 24 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage just
after midnight tonight to a crest of 25.3 feet tomorrow morning.
It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 24 feet, minor out of bank flooding will occur along
the creek. This will be a problem for some cattle and farm
industries.
&&
LAT...LON 3227 9656 3218 9638 3211 9648 3217 9663
$$
TXC085-021945-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0088.000000T0000Z-210603T0020Z/
/MCKT2.1.ER.210601T0609Z.210602T0600Z.210602T1220Z.NO/
841 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021
...The Flood Warning is now in effect until tomorrow evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
the East Fork Trinity River At McKinney.
* Until Wednesday evening.
* At 7:30 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 16.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 16 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is near crest now and will continue falling
to below flood stage Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 16 feet, minor out of bank flooding will begin along
the river.
&&
LAT...LON 3325 9654 3315 9649 3315 9661 3322 9667
$$
TXC113-021945-
/O.EXT.KFWD.FL.W.0087.000000T0000Z-210603T1140Z/
/DALT2.1.ER.210601T0123Z.210602T0200Z.210602T2340Z.NO/
841 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021
...The Flood Warning is now in effect until Thursday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Trinity River At Dallas.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 8 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 34.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 30 feet.
* Minor flooding occurring.
* Forecast...The river is near crest now and will fall to below
flood stage Wednesday evening.
* Impact...At 35 feet, some low water crossings inundated with
cattle and grazing and low water areas under water.
&&
LAT...LON 3275 9693 3281 9693 3283 9683 3275 9671
3269 9676 3278 9687
$$
TXC001-161-289-021945-
/O.CON.KFWD.FL.W.0091.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LOLT2.2.ER.210601T0506Z.210604T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
841 PM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021
...The Flood Warning remains in effect...
The Flood Warning continues for
the Trinity River Near Long Lake (Oakwood).
* Until further notice or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 7:30 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 39.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 35 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest near 42 feet
Thursday evening.
* Impact...At 42 feet, moderate flooding of numerous ranches along
the river is expected. The Coffield Prison farm and ranch lands
will be moderately flooded.
&&
LAT...LON 3173 9580 3149 9562 3150 9580 3170 9593
$$
Dunn790 WGUS84 KFWD 021413 FLSFWD Flood Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX Issued by National Weather Service Shreveport LA 913 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 ...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following creek in Texas... Chambers Creek Near Rice affecting Navarro and Ellis Counties. TXC139-349-021515- /O.CAN.KFWD.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-210602T1413Z/ /RCET2.1.ER.210602T0505Z.210602T1200Z.210602T2330Z.NO/ 913 AM CDT Wed Jun 2 2021 ...The Flood Warning for the Chambers Creek Near Rice has been cancelled... The Flood Warning is cancelled for the Chambers Creek Near Rice. * At 8:00 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 23.8 feet. * Flood stage is 24 feet. * Forecast...Chambers Creek is expected to fall to 11.0 feet by Monday morning. && LAT...LON 3227 9656 3218 9638 3211 9648 3217 9663 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 31, 3:03 PM CDT, 5 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 31, 3:03 PM CDT, 5 hours 17 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 303 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 137 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021/ /Through Tuesday/ After an early round of showers and storms containing isolated pockets of very heavy rainfall this past morning, the next in line of mid level impulses is now moving east across West TX (and SW OK) toward the forecast area. The aforementioned morning clouds and storms have made forecasting high temperatures and PoPs quite problematic, as environmental conditions are slowly expected to recover across North Texas this afternoon and evening with S or SE winds 5 to 15 mph with highs ranging from the lower 70s northwest and immediate Red River Valley, to between 75 and 80 degrees along the I-20 (and I-30 in the East) corridors. Central TX saw little in the way of impacts from morning convection and will remain the warmest and most unstable, especially those areas along and west of Highway 6. These areas will see highs pushing into the lower-middle 80s with MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/KG, which lessens as you move further north and east. Meanwhile, deep layer, westerly bulk shear on the order of 35-40 knots is expected to combine with this instability and approaching lift for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by tonight. A band of strong thunderstorms containing locally heavy rainfall will continue to move east-southeast across the area, especially impacting areas south of Highway 380. Due to previous rainfall and the potential for run off, areas along and north of I-20 and generally west of US-75 will remain in a Flash Flood Watch through 7 AM CDT Tuesday morning. As this semi-linear complex of showers and storms approaches the more unstable airmass that's recharging west of I-35 and especially along/south of I-20, I would expect a few severe storms containing damaging winds to be realized with a few clusters and bowing structures. I don't expect the hail threat to be too egregious, as lapse rates aloft aren't overly steep after some convective interruption this morning and initial subsidence behind the morning mid level disturbance. Still, hail up to quarter, or possibly half dollar size will be possible with values between 6.5-7 deg C/km. In addition, I can't rule out a brief spin up tornado or two considering the expected differential heating combining with fairly strong S/SW, 0-1km flow between 20 and 30 knots and old outflow boundaries around. By late evening and into the overnight hours, look for an linear MCS (or possible QLCS) to evolve across Central TX, before weakening before daybreak Tuesday with a lessening threat for strong to severe storms. Low level wind fields will be veering and weakening, along with the MCS entering a more unfavorable early morning environment off our S/SE CWA boundary. Lows should be mostly in the 60s, though a few readings in the lower 70s may remain across the mid-lower Brazos and Trinity River Valley where convection and outflows likely won't be realized until around sunrise. I do expect more rural areas from DFW to the Red River Valley and out west to see enough radiational effects to produce some patchy fog. Otherwise, Tuesday should be a relatively more quiet day with regard to convection, as mass subsidence takes hold with a subtle cold front dropping south through the area. Highs should range from the mid 70s to lower 80s, so don't expect much of a cool down. 05/ && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday night through next Monday/ The main story of the extended portion of the forecast continues to be the daily precipitation chances across North and Central TX through the next weekend. The combination of the rain and clouds will keep the temperatures below average with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows generally in the mid/upper 60s to near 70 degrees. The highest precipitation chances will slowly shift to East and Central TX Tuesday night into Wednesday as the weak cold front settle over this area. For the rest of us, expect spotty showers and storms with a coverage between 20-30% throughout the day on Wednesday. There's a chance that our region remains precipitation- free during the day due to some subsidence in the wake of the front. A couple of disturbances will travel across our region late week and into the weekend, as the upper level trough continues its way to the east and another mid-level low pressure settle over the southwest CONUS and northern Mexico. This will keep PoPs in the forecast through his weekend, with best chances across Central TX. At this time, flooding rainfall will be the main concerns throughout the week with heavy rain possible each day. However, we can't rule out some brief gusty winds with some of the stronger storms. Flash flooding issues will likely increase each across those locations that see multiple rounds of heavy rain throughout the next several days. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /Issued 137 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021/ /18z TAFs/ Similar to the past few weeks, challenges continue to be timing of showers and storms and cig trends/wind directions with storm outflows, etc. After a round of morning RA/SHRA and isolated TS, another shortwave disturbance to the west of the D10 and Waco Regional Airport continues to generate a line(band) of new TSRA development our near KABI/KBKD/and KGZN, or to the west of US-281 and the KMWL area. Convective washout has resulted in cigs varying from IFR to VFR across the D10, as well as Waco Regional. The approaching mid level disturbance and associated diurnal TSRA containing +RA will continue to move east toward the D10 airports by/after 21z. Highest impacts from TS are generally expected to be in a window between 22z-04z, before subsidence settles in. I will advertise prevailing high MVFR/low VFR cigs through that time, with a TEMPO TSRA and low MVFR cigs, with heavier rainfall dropping vsbys down into the IFR category. The main impacts will be westbound air traffic, with especially the Glen Rose cornerpost being impacted. The Bowie cornerpost could see some impacts as well through this evening, but confidence is lower. The problem lies with the CAMs and other short-term high-res guidance struggling on overall convective evolution. Winds should prevail from S-SE around 10 knots or less, but with variable gusts 20 to 40 knots in/near storms. By 06z Tuesday and beyond, subsidence in behind our late day system should take hold with VCSH still possible into the pre-dawn hours, but overall a lowering of cigs into IFR/low MVFR category. More significant VSBY drops should remain to the W/NW of the airports, but will need to be watched closely through tonight. The prevailing S/SE winds 10 knots or less "should" veer W/WSW in behind the expected linear MCS that evolves this evening across the region. Cigs and vsbys are expected to prevail within the MVFR category by mid-morning Tuesday and beyond. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 80 64 83 66 / 90 60 30 30 20 Waco 69 82 65 80 65 / 70 70 50 60 30 Paris 67 78 62 79 62 / 90 90 40 30 20 Denton 66 79 60 81 62 / 90 50 30 30 20 McKinney 67 80 61 81 63 / 90 70 30 30 20 Dallas 68 81 65 83 67 / 90 60 40 40 20 Terrell 68 81 63 81 64 / 80 80 40 40 30 Corsicana 69 81 66 81 66 / 60 70 50 50 30 Temple 69 83 65 80 65 / 50 60 50 60 30 Mineral Wells 65 76 59 81 63 / 100 40 30 40 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ091>094-100>104- 115>120-129>134-141. &&
Hazardous weather outlook, May 31, 8:18 PM CDT, 2 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 818 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011200- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 818 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through late this evening across parts of North and Central Texas. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be the main threats as grounds are saturated. The strongest storms could produce some gusty winds and frequent lightning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a chance for thunderstorms mainly south of I-20 on Tuesday. Additional heavy rainfall may result in instances of flooding and flash flooding as well. Storm chances will continue the rest of the week into next weekend. Any additional heavy rainfall may lead to more instances of flooding and flash flooding. In addition, any heavy rainfall will result in rapid run off into into mainstream rivers and lakes with additional flooding possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Local storm report, May 31, 3:43 PM CDT, 4 hours 37 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
343 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0245 PM FLOOD EASTLAND 32.41N 98.82W
05/31/2021 EASTLAND TX AMATEUR RADIO
STREET FLOODING REPORTED IN EASTLAND CITY
NEAR LEON RIVER.
&&Local storm report, May 31, 3:47 PM CDT, 4 hours 33 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
347 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0327 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 E EASTLAND 32.40N 98.75W
05/31/2021 EASTLAND TX AMATEUR RADIO
FLOOD WATERS APPROXIMATELY 1 FOOT DEEP OVER
FM 2214.
&&Special weather statement, May 31, 5:21 PM CDT, 2 hours 59 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
521 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021
TXZ133-134-145-146-159-312300-
Ellis TX-Hill TX-Johnson TX-Navarro TX-McLennan TX-
521 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MCLENNAN...EAST
CENTRAL JOHNSON...HILL...SOUTHERN ELLIS AND WESTERN NAVARRO COUNTIES
UNTIL 600 PM CDT...
At 520 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Maypearl to Carl's Corner to 8 miles west
of West. Movement was east at 45 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Waxahachie, Corsicana, Ennis, Hillsboro, West, Italy, Itasca,
Grandview, Hubbard, Maypearl, Blooming Grove, Dawson, Bardwell, Alma,
Barry, Bynum, Carl's Corner, Gholson, Garrett and Milford.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
central and north central Texas.
LAT...LON 3181 9670 3181 9673 3172 9692 3173 9731
3175 9728 3176 9731 3182 9730 3183 9728
3185 9729 3209 9722 3239 9718 3240 9654
3210 9650
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 268DEG 41KT 3233 9709 3209 9707 3177 9723
12Special weather statement, May 31, 6:01 PM CDT, 2 hours 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
601 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021
TXZ134-145>147-161-010000-
Ellis TX-Limestone TX-Freestone TX-Hill TX-Navarro TX-
601 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FREESTONE...
SOUTHEASTERN HILL...NORTHWESTERN LIMESTONE...CENTRAL ELLIS AND
NAVARRO COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...
At 559 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Waxahachie to 6 miles
south of Blooming Grove to 10 miles southwest of Hubbard. Movement
was east at 35 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and torrential rainfall is occurring with
these storms. Heavy rain may lead to localized flooding and ponding
on roadways. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Locations impacted include...
Waxahachie, Corsicana, Ennis, Mexia, Italy, Kerens, Hubbard, Wortham,
Coolidge, Trinidad, Blooming Grove, Dawson, Bardwell, Angus, Alma,
Barry, Navarro, Rice, Frost and Retreat.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
&&
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
central and north central Texas.
LAT...LON 3178 9618 3169 9641 3160 9686 3182 9701
3200 9690 3234 9693 3235 9645 3230 9630
3226 9629 3225 9624 3220 9619 3221 9615
3218 9618 3216 9617 3215 9612 3210 9612
3208 9611 3208 9606 3204 9607 3202 9605
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 270DEG 31KT 3232 9680 3200 9670 3171 9689
12Local storm report, May 31, 6:07 PM CDT, 2 hours 13 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
607 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 W WEATHERFORD 32.76N 97.80W
05/31/2021 PARKER TX PUBLIC
SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO OF FLASH FLOODING
OCCURRING ON SOUTH MAIN STREET.
&&Local storm report, May 31, 7:19 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
719 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0718 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 W LAKESIDE 32.83N 97.58W
05/31/2021 PARKER TX NWS EMPLOYEE
FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING AT FM 1886 AND
SILVER CREEK. WATER FLOWING COMPLETELY OVER
ROAD.
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Fort Worth, TX issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 7:00 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | FWD | Dallas | 15 hr |
| May 31, 7:55 PM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | FWD | Freestone, Hill, Limestone, Navarro | 3 hr |
| May 31, 7:58 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | FWD | Comanche, Erath | 4 days |
| May 31, 7:58 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | FWD | Comanche | 18 hr |
| May 31, 8:20 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | FWD | Dallas | 3 days |
| May 31, 8:20 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | FWD | Collin | 45 hr |
| May 31, 8:20 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | FWD | Collin | 43 hr |
| May 31, 8:20 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | FWD | Anderson, Freestone, Leon | 21 days |
| May 31, 8:46 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | FWD | Limestone | 61 hr |
| May 31, 9:57 PM CDT | Areal Flood Warning | FWD | Stephens | 3 hr |
| May 31, 9:57 PM CDT | Areal Flood Warning | FWD | Dallas, Tarrant | 3 hr |
| May 31, 10:56 PM CDT | Areal Flood Warning | FWD | Parker, Tarrant | 2 hr |
| Jun 1, 1:25 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | FWD | Falls, Limestone, Robertson | 3 hr |
| Jun 1, 6:08 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | FWD | Leon, Robertson | 21 days |
| Jun 1, 2:16 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | FWD | Young | 21 days |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Texas, 2021Every river flood warning in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.