Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

495 
WWUS55 KFGZ 292039
SVSFGZ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
239 PM MDT Thu Jul 29 2021

AZC001-292048-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-210729T2045Z/
Apache-
239 PM MDT Thu Jul 29 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR APACHE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
245 PM MDT...
                
The thunderstorm which prompted the Severe Thunderstorm Warning near 
Round Rock has weakened and moved to the northwest. Therefore, the 
warning will be allowed to expire.

However small hail and heavy rain are still possible with this 
thunderstorm as it heads toward Rock Point.

LAT...LON 3666 10935 3639 10940 3642 10967 3667 10966
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 144DEG 21KT 3661 10963 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
927 AM MST Thu Jul 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Plentiful monsoonal moisture will persist over
northern Arizona through the weekend. The greatest thunderstorm
coverage is expected today and Friday, with storms capable of
producing high rain rates and flash flooding.

&&

.UPDATE...The scattered shower activity across western Coconino
and northern Yavapai counties from earlier this morning has
diminished leaving some leftover mid-level clouds. With the
remainder of northern Arizona clear to scattered in cloud coverage
as of now, expect sufficient diurnal heating to take place. This
coupled with an abundant amount of monsoonal moisture should
result in widespread thunderstorm coverage for today. Anticipate
cumulus buildups forming now across the higher terrain
transitioning into thunderstorms by 11am - 12pm MST. Coverage
increases throughout the day continuing into the evening hours
with flash flooding being the main threat. Showers and
thunderstorms could continue overnight for areas mainly west of
I-17 & Hwy 89. Most activity tapers after midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /321 AM MST/...Showers and thunderstorms have
already begun to move across the region this morning as seen on
radar. This has started over the White Mountains, Mogollon Rim and
the higher elevations of north-central Arizona. This activity
will build throughout the day with showers and thunderstorms
moving into the lower elevations through the afternoon and evening
hours. Activity looks to persist into the nighttime hours. Friday
through Sunday looks to be the most widespread activity for the
week. The risk of flash flooding continues through this timeframe
due to soil moisture content and storms capable of producing high
rain rates. Beginning Monday, monsoonal activity looks to
decrease, similar to last week. Differences in models have this
solution not completely sold just yet, however, there is a chance
that high pressure moves overhead which will limit thunderstorm
activity and increase temperatures. This is not a guarantee and
updates to the forecast in the coming days will help us to hone in
on a solution.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Mainly VFR conditions expected.
Thunderstorm activity develops after 18Z with brief periods of
MVFR conditions and gusty and erratic winds in and around
thunderstorms. Scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage is then
expected to decrease after 06Z Friday. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to widespread thunderstorm coverage is
expected both today and Friday with flash flooding and lightning
being the primary hazards. Light winds are expected outside of
thunderstorm activity.

Saturday through Monday...Scattered storms are forecast Saturday
and Sunday. Storm coverage and rainfall intensity may begin to
decrease on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/Kobold
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...Kobold

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
752 AM MST THU JUL 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW COTTONWOOD-VERDE V 34.70N 112.01W
07/24/2021                   YAVAPAI            AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM 1
            SW COTTONWOOD-VERDE VILLAGE. THIS IS A POST
            EVENT REPORT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD
            WATERS SWEPT A VEHICLE AWAY IN A LOW WATER
            CROSSING ALONG CAMINO REAL NEAR ROCKY KNOLLS
            RD. FLOOD WATERS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 8 FEET
            DEEP. SEARCH AND RESCUE EFFORTS FOUND THE
            MISSING VEHICLE OCCUPANT DECEASED DOWNSTREAM
            AT THE CONFLUENCE OF THE VERDE VALLEY ON
            WEDNESDAY.

&&

NL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1242 PM MST THU JUL 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 PM     HAIL             1 WSW PARKS             35.26N 111.96W
07/29/2021  E0.75 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TM