Flash Flood Warning 125, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

777 
WGUS75 KFGZ 300013
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
513 PM MST Thu Jul 29 2021

AZC001-017-300023-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0125.000000T0000Z-210730T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Apache AZ-Navajo AZ-
513 PM MST Thu Jul 29 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES...

At 510 PM MST, National Weather Service Flagstaff Doppler radar 
indicated that widespread, heavy rain was no longer falling from 
Steamboat Canyon, to Ganado, to Greasewood.

No reports of flooding have been received, however, area washes, 
creeks and streams are likley running high. Please continue to heed 
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3568 11000 3580 10996 3582 10994 3572 10952
      3567 10953 3553 10953 3541 10976 3552 10996

$$

Peterson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
927 AM MST Thu Jul 29 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Plentiful monsoonal moisture will persist over
northern Arizona through the weekend. The greatest thunderstorm
coverage is expected today and Friday, with storms capable of
producing high rain rates and flash flooding.

&&

.UPDATE...The scattered shower activity across western Coconino
and northern Yavapai counties from earlier this morning has
diminished leaving some leftover mid-level clouds. With the
remainder of northern Arizona clear to scattered in cloud coverage
as of now, expect sufficient diurnal heating to take place. This
coupled with an abundant amount of monsoonal moisture should
result in widespread thunderstorm coverage for today. Anticipate
cumulus buildups forming now across the higher terrain
transitioning into thunderstorms by 11am - 12pm MST. Coverage
increases throughout the day continuing into the evening hours
with flash flooding being the main threat. Showers and
thunderstorms could continue overnight for areas mainly west of
I-17 & Hwy 89. Most activity tapers after midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /321 AM MST/...Showers and thunderstorms have
already begun to move across the region this morning as seen on
radar. This has started over the White Mountains, Mogollon Rim and
the higher elevations of north-central Arizona. This activity
will build throughout the day with showers and thunderstorms
moving into the lower elevations through the afternoon and evening
hours. Activity looks to persist into the nighttime hours. Friday
through Sunday looks to be the most widespread activity for the
week. The risk of flash flooding continues through this timeframe
due to soil moisture content and storms capable of producing high
rain rates. Beginning Monday, monsoonal activity looks to
decrease, similar to last week. Differences in models have this
solution not completely sold just yet, however, there is a chance
that high pressure moves overhead which will limit thunderstorm
activity and increase temperatures. This is not a guarantee and
updates to the forecast in the coming days will help us to hone in
on a solution.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Mainly VFR conditions expected.
Thunderstorm activity develops after 18Z with brief periods of
MVFR conditions and gusty and erratic winds in and around
thunderstorms. Scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage is then
expected to decrease after 06Z Friday. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to widespread thunderstorm coverage is
expected both today and Friday with flash flooding and lightning
being the primary hazards. Light winds are expected outside of
thunderstorm activity.

Saturday through Monday...Scattered storms are forecast Saturday
and Sunday. Storm coverage and rainfall intensity may begin to
decrease on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...LaGuardia/Kobold
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...Kobold

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1242 PM MST THU JUL 29 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 PM     HAIL             1 WSW PARKS             35.26N 111.96W
07/29/2021  E0.75 INCH       COCONINO           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TM