Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
416 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

.UPDATE...
Cleared Haralson, Polk and Cherokee Counties for the TOR Watch.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021/

UPDATE...
Removed Floyd and Bartow counties from the TOR Watch.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

A warm front currently remains entrenched across far NE Georgia this
morning. Meanwhile, a cold front is moving across central
Mississippi. Do expect the warm front to finally push north of the
CWA this morning as the front approaches the state. The front is
expected to approach NW portions of the state around 12Z this morning
and move slowly south. The front should eventually become parallel
to the mid level flow and stall south of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Models continue to prog a low pressure wave developing across the
northern Gulf and moving east along the stalled boundary on
Wednesday.

Strong storms have developed out ahead of the cold front across
central Alabama. These storms will continue train into northern
portions of the CWA early this morning while dropping slowly south.
Parameters remain favorable for strong storms, including rotating
thunderstorms capable of producing a tornado. MUCAPE values between
500-1000 J/KG are present along and ahead of the current line, while
the 0-6km shear values range 60-70kt. In addition, there is some
support in the 250mb range with a 90kt jet streak. The main area of
concern is across portions of NW Georgia this morning, closest to
the instability and forcing. Any threat for stronger storms will
shift southward later this morning and early afternoon across
southern portions of the CWA ahead of the cold front. Main hazards
from severe storms today will be damaging wind gusts, especially
within any bowing segments. However, a few tornadoes are possible,
especially during the early half of the day when the shear is
strongest. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

Rain will be exiting at the start of the period as a cold front
clears the area to the east. A brief window will exist late
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning where perhaps a few light
snow showers could be mustered in the northeast Georgia mountains.
With very limited moisture, accumulations are not a concern at
this point.

High pressure will build into the area for Thursday. Temperatures
will dip several degrees below normal with highs ranging from the
40s north to mid 50s south. After a cold Friday morning,
temperatures will begin a quick rebound as the surface high shifts
eastward and southerly flow returns. As such, temperatures will
return back to normal by Friday and Saturday. Saturday appears
largely dry at this point, but this will quickly change overnight
and into Sunday morning as low pressure quickly moves into the Ohio
Valley and drags a cold front into the area. Some timing
discrepancies remain with the GFS representing a faster solution,
but Sunday will be on the wet side. Thunder was not added at this
point given low confidence on much in the way of instability. Drier
conditions should return by early next week behind this system.

RW

AVIATION...
06Z Update...
Main issue will be a line of showers and potentially thunderstorms
moving through early this morning. Have sped up the timing by a
few hours matching up with current radar trends. MVFR cigs have
settled across the area this morning, not confident that IFR will
be widespread...thinking more patchy. Gusty SW winds. Winds should
turn more to the NW during the early evening.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
MED confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  51  58  34 /  70  80  80  20
Atlanta         69  52  59  33 /  40  80  80   5
Blairsville     64  45  55  28 /  20  60  70  30
Cartersville    68  49  60  30 /  20  70  70   5
Columbus        74  56  64  36 /  80  90  90   0
Gainesville     68  50  57  33 /  40  70  80  20
Macon           75  56  62  36 /  70  80  90   0
Rome            69  49  60  32 /  20  60  60   5
Peachtree City  71  51  60  32 /  70  80  90   0
Vidalia         76  62  65  40 /  70  80  80   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for the following
zones: Carroll...Cobb...Douglas...Paulding.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
320 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-270830-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
320 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early this
morning ahead of a cold front for parts of north Georgia and west
central Georgia. The primary threats will be strong to damaging
wind gusts and the risk for a brief tornado. Locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible. A risk for isolated severe storms
with damaging wind gusts may continue in central Georgia into this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Thunderstorm potential continues across mainly central Georgia Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday. The main threats will be gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but
spotters are encouraged to send any reports of severe weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
145 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

GAZ019-020-030>032-041-260715-
Polk GA-Cobb GA-Haralson GA-Bartow GA-Paulding GA-Floyd GA-
145 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN POLK...NORTHWESTERN
COBB...NORTHEASTERN HARALSON...SOUTHERN BARTOW...NORTHERN PAULDING
AND SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM EST...

At 144 AM EST...a strong thunderstorm was centered near Aragon, or
3 miles west of Taylorsville...moving east at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cartersville, Dallas, Acworth, Rockmart, Euharlee, Emerson, Aragon,
Braswell, Taylorsville, Yorkville, Fish Creek, Burnt Hickory Ridge,
Eubank Lake, Red Top Mountain State Park, Antioch, Van Wert, Seney,
Cross Roads, Felton and Stilesboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A tornado watch remains in effect. Continue to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio...weather.gov or other media outlets for further statements or
possible warnings on these storms.

LAT...LON 3413 8511 3425 8465 3392 8471 3386 8526
TIME...MOT...LOC 0644Z 253DEG 53KT 3404 8504

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
232 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

GAZ014-021-022-032-033-260800-
Dawson GA-North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-Forsyth GA-
232 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON...NORTH
FULTON...NORTHERN COBB...SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND FORSYTH COUNTIES
UNTIL 300 AM EST...

At 232 AM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Holly Springs to Kennesaw State University to
Lost Mountain Park...and moving east at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Marietta, Canton, Cumming, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek,
Alpharetta, Dunwoody, Milton, Kennesaw, Woodstock, Sugar Hill, Holly
Springs, Free Home, Fair Oaks, Mount Bethel, Hickory Flat, Drew, Coal
Mountain and Brookwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A tornado watch remains in effect for parts of the area. Continue to
monitor NOAA Weather Radio...weather.gov or other media outlets for
further statements or possible warnings on these storms.

LAT...LON 3437 8399 3416 8407 3399 8420 3400 8424
      3396 8428 3397 8434 3394 8435 3390 8470
      3421 8448
TIME...MOT...LOC 0732Z 251DEG 54KT 3420 8447 3403 8455 3392 8467

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
256 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

GAZ022-023-034-260830-
Hall GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-
256 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HALL...FORSYTH AND
NORTHERN GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM EST...

At 256 AM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Oscarville to Buford Dam-Lake Lanier Parks to
near Brookwood...and moving east at 65 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Gainesville, Sugar Hill, Buford, Flowery Branch, Oakwood, Lula,
Gillsville, Rest Haven, Candler, Buford Dam-Lake Lanier Parks,
Aqualand Park, Chestatee, Chestnut Mountain, Oscarville, Road
Atlanta-Lanier Speedway and Lake Lanier Islands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3441 8365 3440 8366 3436 8367 3435 8365
      3432 8365 3430 8362 3418 8376 3413 8382
      3408 8414 3429 8404 3440 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 0756Z 251DEG 58KT 3425 8401 3416 8405 3410 8413

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
314 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

GAZ030-041-260915-
Polk GA-Haralson GA-
314 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POLK AND NORTHERN HARALSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM EST...

At 312 AM EST...strong thunderstorms with heavy rain were occuring
over areas that saw previous heavy rain earlier this morning. Be
prepared in case a flash flood warning is issued.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
           in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cedartown, Rockmart, Aragon, Fish Creek, Felton, Eubank Lake, Esom
Hill, Antioch and Van Wert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3408 8514 3408 8512 3410 8510 3410 8505
      3408 8505 3408 8493 3395 8500 3395 8505
      3390 8505 3390 8504 3389 8503 3386 8505
      3380 8537 3399 8540
TIME...MOT...LOC 0812Z 251DEG 58KT 3391 8534

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
337 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

GAZ021-031-032-260930-
Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-Paulding GA-
337 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COBB...SOUTHWESTERN
CHEROKEE AND PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM EST...

At 335 AM EST...strong thunderstorms with heavy rain were occuring
over areas that saw previous heavy rain earlier this morning. Be
prepared to take action in case a flood warning is issued.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
           in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Marietta, Dallas, Kennesaw, Woodstock, Acworth, Hiram, Braswell,
Yorkville, White Water Park, Burnt Hickory Ridge, Sweat Mountain,
Lost Mountain Park, Oak Grove, Kennesaw State University, Lebanon,
Cross Roads, Due West, Sandy Plains, New Hope and Hobgood Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3395 8498 3402 8495 3408 8474 3408 8466
      3411 8466 3417 8443 3411 8439 3411 8442
      3405 8442 3398 8438 3383 8504 3390 8504
      3390 8505 3395 8505
TIME...MOT...LOC 0835Z 251DEG 58KT 3403 8490

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
509 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

GAZ052-053-066-261045-
Coweta GA-Troup GA-Heard GA-
509 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN COWETA...NORTHERN TROUP
AND HEARD COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM EST...

At 507 AM EST...a strong thunderstorm was over Big Springs, or 8
miles east of Wedowee...moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Franklin, Hogansville, Ephesus, Centralhatchee, Corinth, Powers
Crossroads, Handy, Roosterville, Waresville, Frolona, Texas, Plant
Wansley, Harrisonville, Hillcrest, Wares Crossroads and Glenn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3343 8516 3343 8502 3344 8499 3344 8494
      3345 8493 3345 8487 3308 8487 3312 8523
      3340 8529 3342 8529
TIME...MOT...LOC 1007Z 273DEG 40KT 3327 8535

WIND...50MPH