Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

A warm front currently remains entrenched across far NE Georgia this
morning. Meanwhile, a cold front is moving across central
Mississippi. Do expect the warm front to finally push north of the
CWA this morning as the front approaches the state. The front is
expected to approach NW portions of the state around 12Z this morning
and move slowly south. The front should eventually become parallel
to the mid level flow and stall south of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Models continue to prog a low pressure wave developing across the
northern Gulf and moving east along the stalled boundary on
Wednesday.

Strong storms have developed out ahead of the cold front across
central Alabama. These storms will continue train into northern
portions of the CWA early this morning while dropping slowly south.
Parameters remain favorable for strong storms, including rotating
thunderstorms capable of producing a tornado. MUCAPE values between
500-1000 J/KG are present along and ahead of the current line, while
the 0-6km shear values range 60-70kt. In addition, there is some
support in the 250mb range with a 90kt jet streak. The main area of
concern is across portions of NW Georgia this morning, closest to
the instability and forcing. Any threat for stronger storms will
shift southward later this morning and early afternoon across
southern portions of the CWA ahead of the cold front. Main hazards
from severe storms today will be damaging wind gusts, especially
within any bowing segments. However, a few tornadoes are possible,
especially during the early half of the day when the shear is
strongest. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

NListemaa

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

Rain will be exiting at the start of the period as a cold front
clears the area to the east. A brief window will exist late
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning where perhaps a few light
snow showers could be mustered in the northeast Georgia mountains.
With very limited moisture, accumulations are not a concern at
this point.

High pressure will build into the area for Thursday. Temperatures
will dip several degrees below normal with highs ranging from the
40s north to mid 50s south. After a cold Friday morning,
temperatures will begin a quick rebound as the surface high shifts
eastward and southerly flow returns. As such, temperatures will
return back to normal by Friday and Saturday. Saturday appears
largely dry at this point, but this will quickly change overnight
and into Sunday morning as low pressure quickly moves into the Ohio
Valley and drags a cold front into the area. Some timing
discrepancies remain with the GFS representing a faster solution,
but Sunday will be on the wet side. Thunder was not added at this
point given low confidence on much in the way of instability. Drier
conditions should return by early next week behind this system.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
Main issue will be a line of showers and potentially thunderstorms
moving through early this morning. Have sped up the timing by a
few hours matching up with current radar trends. MVFR cigs have
settled across the area this morning, not confident that IFR will
be widespread...thinking more patchy. Gusty SW winds. Winds should
turn more to the NW during the early evening.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
MED confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  51  58  34 /  70  80  80  20
Atlanta         69  52  59  33 /  40  80  80   5
Blairsville     64  45  55  28 /  20  60  70  30
Cartersville    68  49  60  30 /  20  70  70   5
Columbus        74  56  64  36 /  80  90  90   0
Gainesville     68  50  57  33 /  40  70  80  20
Macon           75  56  62  36 /  70  80  90   0
Rome            69  49  60  32 /  20  60  60   5
Peachtree City  71  51  60  32 /  70  80  90   0
Vidalia         76  62  65  40 /  70  80  80   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 7 AM EST this morning for the following
zones: Bartow...Carroll...Cherokee...Cobb...Douglas...Floyd...
Haralson...Paulding...Polk.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
118 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261100-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
118 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible early this
morning ahead of a cold front for parts of north Georgia and west
central Georgia. The primary threats will be strong to damaging
wind and a few brief tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Strong to severe thunderstorm potential continues into Tuesday
morning ahead of a cold front for parts of north Georgia and west
central Georgia. The primary threats will be strong to damaging
wind and a few brief tornadoes.

Thunderstorm potential continues across mainly central Georgia Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday. The main threats will be isolated
strong winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but
spotters are encouraged to send any reports of severe weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1036 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

GAZ011-012-019-260400-
Chattooga GA-Gordon GA-Floyd GA-
1036 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTOOGA...SOUTHWESTERN GORDON
AND NORTHERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM EST...

At 1035 PM EST...a strong thunderstorm was over Lyerly, or 8 miles
southwest of Summerville...moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rome, Calhoun, Summerville, Plainville, Lyerly, Oostanaula, Subligna,
Tidings, Armuchee, Lake Marvin, Berryton, Sugar Valley,
Chattoogaville, Everett Springs, James H. Floyd State Park and
Holland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3459 8513 3459 8506 3460 8506 3452 8494
      3439 8498 3439 8500 3438 8501 3430 8547
      3446 8550
TIME...MOT...LOC 0335Z 250DEG 50KT 3440 8546

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1059 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

GAZ005-012-260430-
Gordon GA-Murray GA-
1059 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GORDON AND SOUTHWESTERN MURRAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM EST...

At 1058 PM EST...a strong thunderstorm was over Everett Springs, or 7
miles west of Calhoun...moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Calhoun, Resaca, Plainville, Ranger, Carters, Sonoraville,
Oostanaula, Sugar Valley, Oakman, Redbud, Nickelsville and Audubon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3465 8465 3448 8465 3439 8500 3440 8505
      3454 8509 3454 8506 3458 8507 3460 8506
      3462 8501 3462 8493 3463 8493 3463 8491
      3465 8492 3471 8478
TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 250DEG 38KT 3450 8508

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
119 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

GAZ030-041-260645-
Polk GA-Haralson GA-
119 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POLK AND NORTHERN HARALSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM EST...

At 118 AM EST...National Weather Service Meteorologists indicated a
strong thunderstorm west of Esom Hill...moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail...frequent cloud to
           ground lightning and increased chance of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...While winds should result in minor damage to tree limbs
           and blowing around of light...unsecured objects...this
           storm has also exhibited localized rotation. A brief
           tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cedartown, Rockmart, Aragon, Braswell, Fish Creek, Etna, Felton,
Eubank Lake, Esom Hill, Antioch and Van Wert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3408 8526 3410 8526 3410 8516 3408 8515
      3408 8512 3410 8512 3410 8505 3408 8505
      3408 8498 3401 8495 3395 8498 3395 8505
      3390 8505 3390 8504 3388 8504 3383 8505
      3382 8537 3408 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 0618Z 260DEG 43KT 3394 8550

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
145 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

GAZ019-020-030>032-041-260715-
Polk GA-Cobb GA-Haralson GA-Bartow GA-Paulding GA-Floyd GA-
145 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN POLK...NORTHWESTERN
COBB...NORTHEASTERN HARALSON...SOUTHERN BARTOW...NORTHERN PAULDING
AND SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM EST...

At 144 AM EST...a strong thunderstorm was centered near Aragon, or
3 miles west of Taylorsville...moving east at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cartersville, Dallas, Acworth, Rockmart, Euharlee, Emerson, Aragon,
Braswell, Taylorsville, Yorkville, Fish Creek, Burnt Hickory Ridge,
Eubank Lake, Red Top Mountain State Park, Antioch, Van Wert, Seney,
Cross Roads, Felton and Stilesboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A tornado watch remains in effect. Continue to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio...weather.gov or other media outlets for further statements or
possible warnings on these storms.

LAT...LON 3413 8511 3425 8465 3392 8471 3386 8526
TIME...MOT...LOC 0644Z 253DEG 53KT 3404 8504

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
232 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

GAZ014-021-022-032-033-260800-
Dawson GA-North Fulton GA-Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-Forsyth GA-
232 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON...NORTH
FULTON...NORTHERN COBB...SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND FORSYTH COUNTIES
UNTIL 300 AM EST...

At 232 AM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Holly Springs to Kennesaw State University to
Lost Mountain Park...and moving east at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Marietta, Canton, Cumming, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek,
Alpharetta, Dunwoody, Milton, Kennesaw, Woodstock, Sugar Hill, Holly
Springs, Free Home, Fair Oaks, Mount Bethel, Hickory Flat, Drew, Coal
Mountain and Brookwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A tornado watch remains in effect for parts of the area. Continue to
monitor NOAA Weather Radio...weather.gov or other media outlets for
further statements or possible warnings on these storms.

LAT...LON 3437 8399 3416 8407 3399 8420 3400 8424
      3396 8428 3397 8434 3394 8435 3390 8470
      3421 8448
TIME...MOT...LOC 0732Z 251DEG 54KT 3420 8447 3403 8455 3392 8467

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
256 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

GAZ022-023-034-260830-
Hall GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-
256 AM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HALL...FORSYTH AND
NORTHERN GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM EST...

At 256 AM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Oscarville to Buford Dam-Lake Lanier Parks to
near Brookwood...and moving east at 65 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Gainesville, Sugar Hill, Buford, Flowery Branch, Oakwood, Lula,
Gillsville, Rest Haven, Candler, Buford Dam-Lake Lanier Parks,
Aqualand Park, Chestatee, Chestnut Mountain, Oscarville, Road
Atlanta-Lanier Speedway and Lake Lanier Islands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3441 8365 3440 8366 3436 8367 3435 8365
      3432 8365 3430 8362 3418 8376 3413 8382
      3408 8414 3429 8404 3440 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 0756Z 251DEG 58KT 3425 8401 3416 8405 3410 8413

WIND...40MPH