Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Binghamton, NY

297 
WWUS51 KBGM 062127
SVSBGM

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
527 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

NYC023-109-062136-
/O.CAN.KBGM.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-210706T2145Z/
Cortland NY-Tompkins NY-
527 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CORTLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN TOMPKINS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central New York.

LAT...LON 4205 7600 4227 7625 4238 7621 4241 7611
      4241 7607 4228 7574
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 292DEG 29KT 4233 7599 

$$

NYC007-017-107-062145-
/O.CON.KBGM.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-210706T2145Z/
Broome NY-Tioga NY-Chenango NY-
527 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR WESTERN BROOME...NORTHEASTERN TIOGA AND SOUTHWESTERN CHENANGO
COUNTIES...

At 526 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Whitney Point,
or 8 miles south of Marathon, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Binghamton, Johnson City, Endicott, Maine, Nanticoke, Port Dickinson,
Berkshire, Richford, Newark Valley and Whitney Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4205 7600 4227 7625 4238 7621 4241 7611
      4241 7607 4228 7574
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 292DEG 29KT 4233 7599 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
343 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with some
storms producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Weather will
become quiet overnight as storms move out later this evening.
Showers and thunderstorms are again possible Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong thunderstorms are moving east through CNY. Behind the
main line of thunderstorms, there is not much else popping up
behind it other than a couple isolated showers. This line of
thunderstorms is has made its way into NEPA as well. These
storms will sweep across NEPA over the rest of the afternoon,
and possibly into the early evening hours. By the early evening
hours, the environment will stabilize, so the severity of any
remaining thunderstorm activity should be limited. The overnight
hours should be quiet as these storms move out of the area.

Afternoon temperatures today will be around the mid 80s across
CNY and low 90s in NEPA. With the storms moving through CNY
early in the afternoon, many locations may stay in the 70s.
While there will be some clearing overnight, temps will remain
mild, staying in the 60s.

Wednesday is looking to be active with another round of showers
and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. The morning
should be fairly quiet, but activity will likely ramp up in the
early afternoon. The NAM continues to show fairly high CAPE
values of 1500- 2000 J/kg, with some other models also showing
values in that range. The highest 0-6km Bulk Shear appears to be
north of the Twin Tiers with values of 35-40 kts. Along the
Twin Tiers and southward, there is maybe 30 kts at best. High
temps are forecasted to be in the mid 80s to low 90s, with 70s
expected in north Oneida County. If thunderstorm activity does
begin around lunchtime again, then these forecasted highs could
be too high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Low amplitude trough over the western Great lakes will slowly
move east on Thursday, as a weak surface low develops along the
quasi-stationary front, which will have rippled northward from
the previous day/night's convection. The boundary will
essentially pivot over the area, and act as a focus for
heaviest QPF on Thursday as numerous shortwave disturbances move
out ahead of the main upper trough. GFS and other models (along
with several ensembles but with varying geographical placement)
suggest a secondary QPF max in a band further south and east
from the front, apparently associated with upper level
divergence in the right entrance region of a jet streak over
northern NY and a secondary 50-60 knot jet streak curving from
NJ and off Long Island. This is most notable at 200 mb, and
appears to be influenced to some extent by the approach of Elsa
or her remnants. Otherwise, models continue to favor the more
easterly track for Elsa, which keeps the deeper, tropical
moisture (PW values 2-2.25 inches) to our east. However, max PW
values of 1.65 yo 1.85 inches on Thursday afternoon across
central NY and NE PA is still well above average.

Still, with 1-3 inches QPF through Friday morning, any risk of
flooding will be highly localized and dependent where the max
precip band on Thursday happens to intersect areas which receive
heavy rainfall from more scattered convection/training today
(Tue) and Wednesday.

Lowered temperatures considerably from guidance (MOS and NBM) on
Thursday given expected cloud cover and steadier precipitation
in the area.

Friday looks quieter with the remnants of Elsa not far offshore.
We'll still have plenty of moisture around, but limited dynamics
for lift. Precip threat will be focused over PA where the
remnants of our slow-moving front may still be trailing back.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Trough axis will remain across NY/PA on Saturday, but drier low
level airmass will be pushing in from the north as surface high
pressure builds in over Ontario. Kept the slight chance PoPs in
place, with areas south of the PA line slightly favored. Sunday
still has the ensembles split on how how far south the drier air
can make it in, despite the 12Z GFS trending notably drier.
Precip chances look to increase again by late Monday into
Tuesday as a trough over the mid-Mississippi valley lifts into
the Great Lakes well to our west, then translates eastward
across the area late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered thunderstorms are moving through CNY, impacting all NY
terminals. To cover storms that may pass the terminals, VCTS was
added through at least 22z. A TEMPO group for thunderstorms was
also added at NY terminals valid beginning at the top of the
hour for at least a couple of hours. Storms could produce gusty
winds and heavy rainfall if over a terminal. These storms could
reduce visibility. A TEMPO group was also added for AVP for as
well, but starting a few hours from now. All storm activity
should be done by this evening.

Otherwise VFR conditions will be expected during this period.
Winds will become light this evening and overnight as the
weather quiets down. Winds become gusty at BGM, ELM, and ITH
tomorrow afternoon. There could be some patchy fog tomorrow
morning, mainly ELM, but confidence was too low to include at
this time.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Friday...Daily showers and thunderstorms
possible with associated intermittent restrictions, especially
Thursday afternoon-evening.

Friday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR; small chance of a
shower/brief restriction.

Sunday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers/thunderstorms
and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...BTL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
416 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

NYZ056-057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-072030-
Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-
Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
416 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 335 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible both Wednesday and Thursday,
especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Some storms
could produce damaging winds and very heavy downpours. The risk for
flooding will increase Thursday, as tropical moisture potentially
moves into NY and PA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055-PAZ038-072030-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Bradford-
416 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon and
evening, but the risk of severe thunderstorms has diminished.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible both Wednesday and Thursday,
especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Some storms
could produce damaging winds and very heavy downpours. The risk for
flooding will increase Thursday, as tropical moisture potentially
moves into NY and PA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
446 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HEAVY RAIN       RICHMONDALE             41.63N 75.50W
07/06/2021  M1.02 INCH       LACKAWANNA         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN FELL IN 15 MINUTES, 50 MPH WIND
            RECORDED AT PERSONAL STATION, AND LOOSE
            OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
450 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE JEFFERSONVILLE    41.76N 74.92W
07/06/2021                   SULLIVAN           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

&&

JTC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
502 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     TSTM WND DMG     0.6 NE JOHNSON CITY     42.13N 75.95W
07/06/2021                   BROOME             NY   PUBLIC

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS SNAPPED A LARGE TREE NEAR
            HARRY L DR AND VIRIGINA AVE. PICTURE VIA
            FACEBOOK.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
503 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     HAIL             1 N FREEVILLE           42.52N 76.35W
07/06/2021  E0.25 INCH       TOMPKINS           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JTC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
507 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW KIAMESHA          41.67N 74.67W
07/06/2021                   SULLIVAN           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

JTC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
511 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MONGAUP VALLEY          41.67N 74.78W
07/06/2021                   SULLIVAN           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

JTC