Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1242 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system over the Great Lakes will cause thunderstorms
between Tuesday and Thursday, especially during the afternoon
hours. Some of these storms will produce gusty winds and heavy
downpours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1240 PM Update...

Storms have popped up across CNY, a little earlier than original
thinking. This update just focused on the PoPs through this
afternoon and into tomorrow. Again, adjusted based on what CAMs
are showing for activity. No one model has quite as much
activity compared to what is present currently, so will have to
see how they handle things moving forward. Still favoring the
NAMNEST and RAP as far as coverage is concerned. Also, significantly
reduced PoPs overnight so there are no chances. More adjustments
could be needed during the afternoon forecast update.

945 AM Update...

Made some changes to PoPs as original timing of the forecast
was a little slower than the CAMs, though there is some
uncertainty between the model guidance. A blend of them was
used, though focus was on NAMNest, RAP, and HREF as those seemed
to be in somewhat agreement with each other. This sped the
timing up by an hour or two with all activity out of the area by
late this evening. Also continued the mention of heavy rain and
gusty winds as conditions continue to look favorable to support
some strong storm activity today. Other changes involved
touching up temps and winds through early this afternoon.

Previous Discussion...

Thunderstorms moving off Lake Ontario
will track across our far northern forecast area through the
overnight hours. These storms are tapping elevated instability
and dry air aloft, and will produce gusty winds.

Storms will taper off for the most part during the first half
of Tuesday as temperatures push into the upper-80s. Heat indices
will exceed 90 degrees in the urban valleys, especially from
the Southern Tier southward into PA. Instability will increase
during the afternoon, with CAPE values of 1500 j/kg or higher
developing. Shear will be minimal in a weak flow environment,
and this will increase the potential for heavy downpours, slow
moving storms, and localized flooding.

We don't anticipate Tuesday night will be active as Monday
night, but there is always the potential for an upstream complex
to form and slide across our counties. We're maintaining slight
to chance POPs over our northern and western forecast areas.

Another round of strong storms will affect the region Wednesday.
Again, it may be fairly quiet early on before CAPE values push
above 1500 j/kg during the afternoon. Bulk shear values are
coming in at 30-35 knots on the NAM12, healthier than Tuesday's
shear profile. This will increase the concern for organized
storms with gusty winds and heavy downpours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather will continue through much of the short term period;
with the potential for locally heavy rain and scattered strong
thunderstorms; especially on Thursday.

Wednesday Night: Upper level trough begins to further amplify across
the Great Lakes region, with a weak surface low trekking across
northern Lower Michigan. A warm front will slide north through CNY
and NE PA, with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms overnight.
Deep layer 0-6km shear is around 30 kts, MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/Kg
and pwats are progged to be around 1.75 inches...therefore a few
stronger storms with frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy
downpours remain possible. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy
and humid with lows in the 60s.

Thursday: This has the potential to be an active weather day, as the
approaching upper level trough begins to merge with the remnants of
Elsa, down in the Carolinas. Latest model guidance keeps PoPs in the
80-90% range for the afternoon, with rather unstable conditions, and
MLCAPE easily 1000-1800 J/Kg. With the trough moving in, there will
also be deep layer shear on the order of 25-35 kts or slightly higher.
PWATs creep up to 1.75-1.90" by late afternoon and early evening,
with some model guidance hinting at a possible PRE rainfall
setup nearby. Warm cloud layer is pushing 11k ft at times, which
is favorable for efficient rain rates. Collaborated with WPC
and surrounding WFOs with the decision to keep the Excessive
Rainfall Outlook (ERO) in the marginal category for now, due to
uncertainty in where the heaviest rain ultimately sets up.
Otherwise, Thursday should be mostly cloudy and muggy with highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s for most locations. Southerly winds
at 5-15 mph will help transport that deep, subtropical moisture
into our region.

Thursday night: Current model guidance brings the remnants of Elsa
north, right along the East Coast from the DELMARVA to near Atlantic
City NJ overnight. In this scenario the main rain shield would
just skirt the far SE areas of our CWA; with scattered to
numerous showers extending back across the rest of CNY & NE PA.
Carried Likely PoPs, with some categorical across our far
eastern zones in the current forecast. Not a lot of instability
overnight, but perhaps enough for a few embedded thunderstorms
once again. PWATS remain high, in the 1.50-1.75 inch range. Will
need to monitor the track of the remnants of Elsa closely, as a
shift westward would certainly bring the potential for heavier
rainfall into portions of our forecast area. Otherwise another
mostly cloudy and humid night with lows in the 60s.

Friday: The remnants of Elsa should be kicked north and east out of
our area by the approaching upper level trough. Current guidance has
the upper trough axis gradually sliding through on Friday. Still a
chance for lingering showers and afternoon t'storms, especially
across our eastern areas (Catskills/Poconos). Otherwise, partly
sunny, warm & still humid with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Finally drying out Friday night and slightly cooler/less humid.
Partly cloudy skies with a light northwest wind developing. Lows in
the upper 50s to lower 60s for most area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level trough flattens somewhat for Saturday, setting up a
more zonal westerly flow pattern. A weak surface high nudges in
from southern Ontario across most of CNY and NE PA. Therefore,
trended the forecast drier, under partly sunny skies. Less
humid, with dew points falling back into the 50s or low 60s by
afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to reach near average
levels, in the upper 70s to low 80s. Light northwest winds 5-10
mph. A somewhat complex weather pattern for Sunday, with model
guidance indicating some differences this far out in time. Went
a little lower than the NBM/blended model guidance for PoPs, as
the latest operational guidance (00z ECMWF and 00z GFS) seem to
be hinting at a wave mainly staying south or getting into NE PA,
but not CNY. However, again, considering the uncertainty and
incorporating the ensemble guidance, still decided it was best
to keep a lower end chance PoP areawide Sunday afternoon
(25-40%)...with the higher chances in NE PA. Otherwise, it is
shaping up to be a rather typical mid-summer day, with partly
sunny skies and highs 75-85. Remaining less humid.

Early next week model guidance is showing an amplifying upper
level ridge along the East Coast extending into our area. This
is in response to a deepening trough across the upper midwest
and western Great Lakes. This should allow for another warming
trend, with humidity levels increasing. Capped PoPs in the
chance range this far out, as the NBM was suggesting likely
heading into day 7 and 8. Current thinking is for perhaps just
some scattered afternoon and evening t'storms activity around.
Also nudged the high temperatures up, blending in some of the
NBM50th guidance to get highs in the low to mid-80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thunderstorms tracking through the Central Southern Tier and
Lower Finger Lakes are expected to move into the vicinity of
KITH between 12z and 14z. We don't expect restrictions with
these storms, but gusty winds are possible.

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail before thunderstorms develop
this afternoon. These storms will be near KRME and KSYR between
16z and 21z, KITH and KELM between 17z and 22z, KBGM between
18z and 22z, and KAVP between 21z and 01z Wednesday. Some of
these storms will produce heavy downpours and gusty winds, along
with brief restrictions.

Quieter weather should prevail Tuesday night with the potential
for IFR river valley fog early Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday morning...Early morning valley fog at KELM; possibly
other terminals depending on where prior rainfall occurs.

Wednesday afternoon through Friday...Daily showers and thunderstorms
possible with associated intermittent restrictions, especially
Thursday afternoon-evening.

Friday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR; small chance of a
shower/brief restriction.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...BTL/DJP
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...DJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
306 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

NYZ009-037-070715-
Northern Oneida-Southern Oneida-
306 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms early this
afternoon through early evening. The main threat from thunderstorms
will be very heavy downpours and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible both Wednesday and Thursday,
especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Some storms
could produce damaging winds and very heavy downpours. The risk for
flooding will increase Thursday, as tropical moisture potentially
moves into NY and PA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC
guidelines.

NYZ015>018-022>025-036-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
048-072-070715-
Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-
Tompkins-Madison-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-
Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-
Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
306 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
through this evening. The main threat from thunderstorms will be very
heavy downpours, damaging winds, and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible both Wednesday and Thursday,
especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Some storms
could produce damaging winds and very heavy downpours. The risk for
flooding will increase Thursday, as tropical moisture potentially
moves into NY and PA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC
guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1155 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

NYZ018-061645-
Onondaga-
1155 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY...

At 1154 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Plainville, or
near Baldwinsville, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Syracuse, Clay, Cicero, De Witt, Lysander, Van Buren, Baldwinsville,
North Syracuse, Solvay and Manlius.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Binghamton.

LAT...LON 4322 7609 4320 7608 4318 7599 4313 7595
      4309 7598 4308 7592 4298 7591 4310 7650
      4311 7647 4321 7648 4322 7648 4323 7630
      4320 7627 4322 7626 4324 7627 4320 7622
      4322 7620 4327 7621
TIME...MOT...LOC 1554Z 277DEG 24KT 4320 7640

HLC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1253 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

NYZ045-046-056-057-061745-
Otsego-Chenango-Broome-Delaware-
1253 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN OTSEGO...CENTRAL
BROOME...WEST CENTRAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN CHENANGO COUNTIES...

At 1253 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Whitney Point,
or 8 miles northeast of Greater Binghamton Airport, moving east at 30
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sidney, Sanford, Coventry, Greene, Bainbridge, Masonville, Unadilla,
Whitney Point, Windsor and Afton.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Binghamton.

LAT...LON 4201 7552 4222 7608 4223 7608 4232 7601
      4241 7596 4241 7587 4243 7586 4235 7529
TIME...MOT...LOC 1653Z 288DEG 28KT 4231 7590

HLC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1259 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

NYZ009-018-036-037-061745-
Onondaga-Southern Oneida-Madison-Northern Oneida-
1259 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ONEIDA...
CENTRAL MADISON AND EAST CENTRAL ONONDAGA COUNTIES...

At 1258 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near New London to near Oneida to
Cazenovia. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Utica, Rome, Sullivan, Oneida, Kirkland, Lenox, Verona, Westmoreland,
Vienna and Chittenango.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4327 7516 4325 7515 4326 7514 4324 7512
      4323 7507 4305 7522 4288 7520 4288 7524
      4285 7525 4291 7605 4307 7586 4326 7582
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 271DEG 42KT 4321 7564 4303 7567 4292 7586

HLC