Areal Flood Warning 11, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
750 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy rain is exiting to the east ahead of the remnants of
tropical storm Fred this morning. The air mass becomes a little
less humid into the weekend with mild temperatures and typical
afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms today into next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 am update...
Minor changes to lower the pops in the central and southern
zones this morning.

4 AM Update...

Flood event winding down as the rain on its way out to the east.
Remnants of tropical storm Fred near Elmira now with steady rain
to the north and east of the center. A few river points are
above flood stage as well as Cayuga Lake at Ithaca. The heaviest
rain is now along and north of the NYS thruway in Onondaga and
Oneida Counties. Hourly rates are under an inch but totals are 1
to 3 inches in those areas. Additional rain there under an inch
and further south less than half an inch. Steady rain should be
out of the area by 7 AM.

Deep moisture and cold cloud tops are out of the area so greatly
reduced the chances of thunderstorms early this morning.
Lightning moved out of our southeast counties about 2 hours ago.

This afternoon still a chance of showers and thunderstorms with
weak instability with cold air aloft. Wind shear is also weak
with 20 kts of bulk shear. Temperatures only rebound to the mid
and upper 70s due to partial clearing.

Tonight it dries out. Some patchy fog with the wet ground and
light to calm winds. Skies stay mostly cloudy so fog won't be
widespread and thick. Low temperatures in the 60s.

Friday a little warmer with more sun as Fred is no longer
nearby. High in the upper 70s and lower 80s. More instability of
up to 1k Cape but less wind of only 10 kts bulk shear. As with
today forcing will be weak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cut off upper low will spin over the northeast during the
short term period. Unsettled weather will continue with high
temperatures in the lower 80s. Expect scattered afternoon
thunderstorms each day.

The best chance for thunderstorms will come Saturday afternoon,
when the upper level low rotates into the Mid-Atlantic, with the
trof axis extending northward into NY.

The upper low will finally become an open wave Sunday night and
rotate off the eastern seaboard.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As an upper level wave exits the east coast early Monday, a
ridge of high pressure will build from the Central Plains into
the Ohio Valley.

A northwest flow will set up across NY and PA through the long
term period. High temperatures will average between 80 and 85
degrees, with widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms possible
each day.

The best chance of thunderstorms will come Tuesday afternoon
when short wave energy rotates across Lake Ontario into NY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
740 am update...

Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred will continue to pass through
the region today. IFR cigs expected most locations this
morning. Cigs slowly improve today through MVFR to VFR. Vsbys
stay mostly MVFR at sites in rain showers and fog until around
14z.

Late tonight some IFR fog at ELM and possibly MVFR fog at other
sites.

Winds at 5 to 10 kts out of the east and southeast early this
morning, shift to northwest today. Winds tonight light and
variable.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...occasional showers/thunderstorms
bringing restrictions mainly during the afternoon hours.
Possibly some late night vsby restrictions due to valley fog.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
3 am update...

Rain with Fred is moving east. Lingering flash flooding in a
few places where the rain has mostly ended. Additional flash
flood warnings probably won't be needed. Canceling the flash
flood watch for the southwest two thirds of the area.

For river warnings Cortland on the Tioughnioga has gone over
flood stage. Upstream of Cortland had flash flooding Tuesday
night in addition to now. Cayuga Lake at Ithaca has gone above
flood stage and a warning was issued there early this morning.
Lake levels will stay above flood stage for many days. The rest
of the forecast river points should stay below flood stage.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ009-017-
     018-025-036-037-044>046-057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPK/TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...TAC
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
408 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

NYZ015-016-022>024-055-056-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-200815-
Yates-Seneca-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tioga-Broome-Bradford-
Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-
Southern Wayne-
408 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ009-017-018-025-036-037-044>046-057-062-200815-
Northern Oneida-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Tompkins-Madison-
Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-
408 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

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