Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
249 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance will pass through the local area this evening and
tonight. High pressure settles across the local area on Saturday.
Bermuda high pressure builds offshore Sunday through early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EDT Friday...

     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A trough aloft will swing through the region late this afternoon
into tonight, gradually pushing the bulk of the significant
moisture S and E of the FA. Already seeing tstms developing
across northern VA early this afternoon in response to the
approaching upper disturbance. Latest hi-res CAMS show tstms
continuing to develop and heading SE through eastern VA, lower
MD and eventually into southside Hampton Roads and coastal NE NC
through late this evening. In coordination with SPC and
surrounding offices have hoisted a SVR TSTM WATCH until 9 pm
for much of the area (excluding SW counties where SVR parameters
are less). There is the potential for several strong/severe
tstms with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. This
activity gradually progresses SE through the late evening,
ending late this afternoon N and late this evening (after dark)
SE. After that, we dry out and the the sky becomes mostly clear
to partly cloudy overnight with low temps ranging from the lower
60s NW to the mid/upper 60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure builds over the area for Saturday. Partly to
mostly sunny and warm with highs ranging from the mid 80s to
lower 90s. Expecting a generally dry day Saturday, although a
stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near/along the
Albemarle Sound. Fair to partly cloudy Sat night with lows in
the 60s. Remaining dry and warm Sunday with high pressure in
control, although a stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out in NE NC. Highs from the low-mid 80s coast to the low
90s inland. Another dry/mild night Sunday night with lows in
the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s. Bermuda high pressure takes up a
position offshore on Monday. Diurnal tstms possible in the
afternoon inland with PoPs 20-30%. Very warm with highs from the
low-mid 80s coast to the low 90s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Friday...

The latest 12Z/04 models continue to forecast a summerlike
pattern with just isolated to scattered diurnal convection
(highest coverage during the aftn/evening) from Tue-Fri. A
potent shortwave potentially dives SSE from srn Canada to far
nrn New England by the end of next week. This feature
potentially could allow a backdoor cold front to settle near the
region by late next week. Regardless, the main mid/upper level
flow is expected to remain well to our north. It will be
somewhat humid with dew pts in the 60s to near 70F (highest SE).
Highs will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s through the
period with some locally cooler conditions at the immediate
coast only. Lows will range from the mid 60s to around 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Primarily VFR conditions this afternoon through tonight outside
of any heavier showers/storms. Local IFR VSBYS possible in tstms
along with localized gusty winds.

OUTLOOK...Generally dry wx/VFR conditions expected for Saturday
through Sunday. Bermuda high pressure takes over Monday through
at least the middle of next week. VFR conditions expected
outside of scattered afternoon tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Current observations are showing a southerly flow around 10 kt
across our coastal waters this afternoon. A line of
thunderstorms are moving southeast across northeastern VA and
southeastern MD. This storms are forecasted to move down the
Chesapeake Bay between 3pm and 9pm this evening. Strong gusty
winds are possible as storms move through.

Otherwise, S to SW flow is expected to continue into tonight
behind the line of storms, then lingers through the upcoming
weekend ~10 to 15 knots as the front washes out across the area.
Bermuda high re- asserts itself into next week, with a typical
summer pattern setting in. S-SW flow 10-15 kt persisting through
much of the period, modified only slightly with aftn sea-
breeze. Seas 2-4 ft with S-SE swell, Rivers and sound 1-3 ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...AJB/JDM
LONG TERM...AJB/JDM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...CP/MAM

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