Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
657 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and its accompanying cold front will weaken while
moving through the region today. The front will wash out
offshore as weak high pressure settles across the local area.
High pressure builds offshore Sunday through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Early this morning, a cold front is pushing through Eastern Ohio
into West Virginia. Out ahead of the front, moist southerly flow
continues across our region. Currently, the axis of heaviest
rainfall is across far SE portions of the area where PWAT values
are currently around/in excess of 2.00". Expect the heavy
showers/embedded thunderstorms to linger across this area
through the morning hours, thus the Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect. Western/northern portions of the Flash Flood Watch were
cancelled where the heaviest rain threat has ended. Do expect to
see some redevelopment of shower/storms across western portions
of the area this morning as the shortwave approaches.
Temperatures are mild this morning, ranging from the upper 60s
to lower 70s across the region.

Broad trough aloft will swing through the region later today
into tonight, gradually pushing the bulk of the significant
moisture S and E of the FA. With the upper trough and an
associated shortwave progged to push through the area later this
aftn/evening, expect tstms to redevelop (even across the NW).
There is the potential for a few strong/severe tstms with
damaging wind gusts being the main threat. SPC has a marginal
risk across the region for today. Skies become partly sunny by
this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Drying out and becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight
with low temperatures ranging from the lower 60s NW to the
mid/upper 60s SE.

High pressure builds over the area for Saturday. Partly to
mostly sunny and warm with highs ranging from the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Expecting a generally dry day Saturday, though a
stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near/along the
Albemarle Sound. Clear to partly cloudy Sat night with lows in
the 60s. Remaining dry and warm Sunday with high pressure in
control. Highs from the low- mid 80s coast to the low 90s
inland. Another dry/mild night Sunday night with lows in the
mid/upper 60s to lower 70s

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

The latest 00Z/04 models continue to forecast a summerlike
pattern with just isolated to perhaps scattered diurnal
convection (highest coverage during the aftn/evening) from the
early to middle part of next week. A potent shortwave
potentially dives SSE from srn Canada to far nrn New England by
the end of next week. This feature potentially could allow a
backdoor cold front to settle near the region by late next week.
Regardless, the main mid/upper level flow is expected to remain
well to our north. It will be somewhat humid with dew pts in
the 60s to near 70F (highest SE). Highs will range from the
upper 80s to lower 90s through the period with some locally
cooler conditions at the immediate coast only. Lows will range
from the mid 60s to around 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...

MVFR to IFR ceilings this morning gradually improve to VFR
later this morning/early afternoon. Additional showers and
thunderstorms develop this afternoon into this evening. A few
storms may produce strong wind gusts. Primarily VFR conditions
this afternoon through tonight outside of any heavier
showers/storms.

OUTLOOK...Generally dry wx/VFR conditions expected for Friday
night through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 645 AM EDT Friday...

Latest obs and buoy reports reflect S-SW flow across the local
waters early this morning. 06z analysis reveals 1020+mb sfc high
pressure well offshore, and approaching frontal boundary still well
inland. Pre-frontal trough of low pressure just inland allowed
southerly winds to increase to low end SCA levels over the Bay
and lower James River earlier this morning, but have noted
winds dropping off enough to drop SCA as gradient slackens with
trough approaching the coastal plain. Seas are 3-4 ft, with 2-3
ft waves on the Ches Bay. Obs reflecting 5 ft seas still along
and south of Hatteras early this morning, and ongoing weak
E/ESE swell, expect sub-SCA seas to persist today.

S to SW flow continues today ahead of the front, then lingers
through the upcoming weekend ~10 to 15 knots as the front washes out
across the area. Bermuda high re-asserts itself into next week, with
a typical summer pattern setting in. S-SW flow 10-15 kt persisting
through much of the period, modified only slightly with aftn sea-
breeze. Seas 2-4 ft with S-SE swell, Rivers and sound 1-3 ft. Mod
Rip Risk for part of the area (north) today, w/ Low Rip Risk over
area beaches over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ013>017-
     030>032.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ095>098.
     Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ525.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/JDM
LONG TERM...AJB/ERI
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...MAM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
114 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

MDZ021>023-NCZ014>017-031-032-102-VAZ048-061-062-064-068-069-075>078-
080>086-088>090-092-093-095>098-509>525-051715-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-
Western Currituck-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-
New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Sussex-Surry-James City-
Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-
Virginia Beach-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
114 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ024-NCZ012-013-030-VAZ060-065>067-079-087-051715-
Inland Worcester-Northampton-Hertford-Bertie-Prince Edward-
Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Brunswick-Greensville-
114 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are the
primary threats with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ099-100-051715-
Accomack-Northampton-
114 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 235 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-051715-
Maryland Beaches-
114 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are the primary
threats with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
927 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

VAZ097-098-041415-
Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
927 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT ...THE EASTERN CITY OF
CHESAPEAKE AND THE CITY OF VIRGINIA BEACH...

At 927 AM EDT, a thunderstorm with heavy rain was located near
Northwest, or near Great Bridge, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Virginia Beach, Regent University, Great Bridge, Kempsville,
Chesapeake, Back Bay, Fentress, Northwest, Princess Anne, Rudee
Heights, Princess Anne Plaza, Sigma, Pungo, Greenbrier, Bayside, Dam
Neck, Hickory, Mount Pleasant, Sandbridge Beach and Oceana NAS.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of this storm. Be
prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy rain
could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor flooding of
ditches and poor drainage areas.

LAT...LON 3655 7641 3694 7611 3694 7595 3677 7591
      3664 7585 3655 7582
TIME...MOT...LOC 1327Z 268DEG 19KT 3663 7618

JM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
115 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

VAZ048-509-041800-
Fluvanna-Western Louisa-
115 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LOUISA AND
NORTHEASTERN FLUVANNA COUNTIES...

At 114 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of
Boswells Tavern, or 11 miles northeast of Charlottesville, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Louisa, Ferncliff, Boswells Tavern, Kents Store, Troy, Gordonsville,
Louisa Airport, Green Springs, Zion Crossroads, Union Mills, Bybee,
Waldrop, Byrd Mill, Trevilians and Vawter Corner.

Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central Virginia.

LAT...LON 3807 7825 3813 7821 3813 7818 3814 7815
      3814 7812 3815 7811 3815 7809 3813 7805
      3814 7801 3812 7798 3811 7793 3812 7792
      3811 7791 3784 7810 3796 7835
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 308DEG 17KT 3812 7830

MRD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
203 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

VAZ509>511-041845-
Western Hanover-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
203 PM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LOUISA AND NORTHWESTERN
HANOVER COUNTIES...

At 203 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Ferncliff to near Mineral. Movement
was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts around 40 mph are possible with these storms.

These storms will be near...
  Bumpass around 215 PM EDT.
  Mineral around 225 PM EDT.
  Montpelier around 245 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Orchid, Pendleton,
Louisa Airport, Vontay, Coatesville, Hewlett, Mabelton, Cuckoo,
Dabneys and Yanceyville.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

LAT...LON 3812 7794 3812 7792 3808 7779 3806 7778
      3805 7775 3802 7775 3803 7773 3801 7772
      3799 7764 3795 7762 3796 7757 3793 7755
      3772 7778 3775 7783 3777 7790 3785 7795
      3786 7799 3789 7802 3796 7819
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 286DEG 29KT 3798 7814 3806 7785

EI