Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
657 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and its accompanying cold front will weaken while
moving through the region today. The front will wash out
offshore as weak high pressure settles across the local area.
High pressure builds offshore Sunday through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Early this morning, a cold front is pushing through Eastern Ohio
into West Virginia. Out ahead of the front, moist southerly flow
continues across our region. Currently, the axis of heaviest
rainfall is across far SE portions of the area where PWAT values
are currently around/in excess of 2.00". Expect the heavy
showers/embedded thunderstorms to linger across this area
through the morning hours, thus the Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect. Western/northern portions of the Flash Flood Watch were
cancelled where the heaviest rain threat has ended. Do expect to
see some redevelopment of shower/storms across western portions
of the area this morning as the shortwave approaches.
Temperatures are mild this morning, ranging from the upper 60s
to lower 70s across the region.

Broad trough aloft will swing through the region later today
into tonight, gradually pushing the bulk of the significant
moisture S and E of the FA. With the upper trough and an
associated shortwave progged to push through the area later this
aftn/evening, expect tstms to redevelop (even across the NW).
There is the potential for a few strong/severe tstms with
damaging wind gusts being the main threat. SPC has a marginal
risk across the region for today. Skies become partly sunny by
this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

Drying out and becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight
with low temperatures ranging from the lower 60s NW to the
mid/upper 60s SE.

High pressure builds over the area for Saturday. Partly to
mostly sunny and warm with highs ranging from the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Expecting a generally dry day Saturday, though a
stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near/along the
Albemarle Sound. Clear to partly cloudy Sat night with lows in
the 60s. Remaining dry and warm Sunday with high pressure in
control. Highs from the low- mid 80s coast to the low 90s
inland. Another dry/mild night Sunday night with lows in the
mid/upper 60s to lower 70s

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Friday...

The latest 00Z/04 models continue to forecast a summerlike
pattern with just isolated to perhaps scattered diurnal
convection (highest coverage during the aftn/evening) from the
early to middle part of next week. A potent shortwave
potentially dives SSE from srn Canada to far nrn New England by
the end of next week. This feature potentially could allow a
backdoor cold front to settle near the region by late next week.
Regardless, the main mid/upper level flow is expected to remain
well to our north. It will be somewhat humid with dew pts in
the 60s to near 70F (highest SE). Highs will range from the
upper 80s to lower 90s through the period with some locally
cooler conditions at the immediate coast only. Lows will range
from the mid 60s to around 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...

MVFR to IFR ceilings this morning gradually improve to VFR
later this morning/early afternoon. Additional showers and
thunderstorms develop this afternoon into this evening. A few
storms may produce strong wind gusts. Primarily VFR conditions
this afternoon through tonight outside of any heavier
showers/storms.

OUTLOOK...Generally dry wx/VFR conditions expected for Friday
night through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 645 AM EDT Friday...

Latest obs and buoy reports reflect S-SW flow across the local
waters early this morning. 06z analysis reveals 1020+mb sfc high
pressure well offshore, and approaching frontal boundary still well
inland. Pre-frontal trough of low pressure just inland allowed
southerly winds to increase to low end SCA levels over the Bay
and lower James River earlier this morning, but have noted
winds dropping off enough to drop SCA as gradient slackens with
trough approaching the coastal plain. Seas are 3-4 ft, with 2-3
ft waves on the Ches Bay. Obs reflecting 5 ft seas still along
and south of Hatteras early this morning, and ongoing weak
E/ESE swell, expect sub-SCA seas to persist today.

S to SW flow continues today ahead of the front, then lingers
through the upcoming weekend ~10 to 15 knots as the front washes out
across the area. Bermuda high re-asserts itself into next week, with
a typical summer pattern setting in. S-SW flow 10-15 kt persisting
through much of the period, modified only slightly with aftn sea-
breeze. Seas 2-4 ft with S-SE swell, Rivers and sound 1-3 ft. Mod
Rip Risk for part of the area (north) today, w/ Low Rip Risk over
area beaches over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ013>017-
     030>032.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ095>098.
     Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ525.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/JDM
LONG TERM...AJB/ERI
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...MAM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
407 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

MDZ021>024-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>083-085-086-509>522-050815-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Middlesex-Mathews-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
407 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central
Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are the primary
threats with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-050815-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
407 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are the primary
threats with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ102-050815-
Eastern Currituck-
407 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are the primary
threats with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ013>017-030>032-VAZ095>098-050815-
Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-
Perquimans-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
407 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are the primary
threats with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ012-VAZ087>090-092-093-523-050815-
Northampton-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-York-
407 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are the primary
threats with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ084-524-525-050815-
Gloucester-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
407 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are the primary
threats with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
424 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

VAZ065-066-040915-
Lunenburg-Mecklenburg-
424 AM EDT Fri Jun 4 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTY...

At 424 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Dryburg, or 7
miles southwest of Redoak, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this storm.
In addition, very heavy rain is occuring with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chase City, Clarksville, Boydton, Rehoboth, Kells Corner, Buffalo
Springs, Spanish Grove, Finchley, Finneywood, Skipwith, Fairview,
Rogers Corner, Baskerville, Wightman and John H Kerr Reservoir.

Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of this storm. Be
prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy rain
could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor flooding of
ditches and poor drainage areas.

LAT...LON 3667 7870 3668 7870 3669 7868 3669 7865
      3664 7858 3664 7856 3670 7865 3689 7850
      3693 7833 3677 7827 3662 7826 3661 7871
      3664 7871
TIME...MOT...LOC 0824Z 259DEG 27KT 3671 7872

Butner

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