Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
833 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front and low pressure will push across the area this
evening. A strong cold front will sweep through the region late
tonight, with upper level low pressure tracking across the
region Friday. High pressure builds in from the northwest Friday
night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...

Complex weather pattern will evolve over the remainder of the
afternoon into the overnight period. ~1000mb surface low pressure is
centered over eastern KY/TN nosing into western NC and VA. Aloft, a
strong closed low is located over NW TN and is slowly advancing to
the east. A wavy warm front extends to the SE of the surface low
with the eastern extension of the front making some northward
progress this afternoon.

Widespread low stratus remained locked in east of the higher
Appalachian terrain through the morning and the first half of the
afternoon across the region which has held temperatures largely in
the 50s for the I-95 corridor and Piedmont. Some thinning of the
clouds is apparent to our south and southwest on visible satellite
imagery and temperatures have rapidly risen in areas that have seen
filtered sunshine. Low level moisture has also been increasing
across the southeastern third of the area with dew point
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s near and south of the VA/NC
border and east of I-95. Warmer temperatures and more robust
moisture in these regions have allowed instability to steadily
increase this afternoon with MLCAPE generally in the 500-1000 J/kg
range. Still expecting the convective threat to increase across the
southeastern half of the area through the late afternoon and into
the evening as temps continue to rise and moisture increases near
and south of the warm front. Not many changes from SPC for our local
area with the greatest severe threat across SE VA and NE NC where an
Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues. To the north and west, a
Slight Risk extends from near I-64 to the south. A Marginal Risk is
in place for the northern counties as well as the Eastern Shore.
Radar trends and mesoanalysis indicate that generally weak echoes
noted across west-central NC and VA will continue to move eastward
and intensify through the evening. Strong kinematics are in place
ahead of the surface and upper level low pressure centers but
thermodynamics remain marginal away from far SE VA and NE NC.
Surface observations across the central Carolinas do show more
robust heating and moisture that should be able to advect northward
into the region this evening. CAM guidance shows the potential for
clusters of storms to move NE this afternoon and evening, generally
along and east of the I-85 corridor and extending to eastward to the
western shore of the Chesapeake Bay. Additional storms are possible
to the SE of the corridor later this evening into the early
overnight. All severe hazards are possible given the strong shear in
place. Strong to severe straight line winds and tornadoes are the
most likely threats with large hail confined to only the strongest
of rotating storms that are able to form. The severe threat will
largely come to end by 10-11pm with the stronger convection moving
offshore.

The upper low will begin to phase with energy in the northern stream
jet which will bring a strong cold front through the area tonight
into Friday morning after the surface moves to the east. A NNE wind
will increase sharply behind the front, with gusts up to 45-55 mph
along the coast, 35-40 mph along the western shore of the Bay, and
25-35 mph farther inland. A wind advisory has been issued, which
begins late tonight for the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore, and
early Friday morning for coastal SE VA/NE NC. Rain will re-develop
from N-S after midnight, with low temperatures ranging from the
mid/upper 30s N, to the mid/upper 40s S by early Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...

The upper low will push across the area Friday morning as it then
phases with the northern stream trough offshore by Friday afternoon.
Precipitation is expected to continue through midday to early
afternoon Friday. Surface temperatures are expected to drop into the
mid 30s for portions of the area Friday morning, with sub-1290m 1000-
850mb thicknesses suggesting that rain will mix with snow, and
likely become all snow for some areas when the rates are greatest.
Any accumulation will be purely rate driven, with a coating of snow
possible on grassy and elevated surfaces. Any snow accumulation
should melt quickly once precipitation ends.

Forecast highs Friday will be tricky with temperatures strongly
linked to the intensity of the precip at any given time/location.
Will show high temps in the mid and upper 40s across the area to
account for the expected rapid rebound outside of the heavier
precip. Remaining breezy inland to windy along the coast Friday,
with the Wind Advisory continuing into the afternoon for the Eastern
Shore, and through Friday evening for SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Thursday...

Canadian high pres moves across the nern states Sat then tracks ne
and off the New England coast Sun. Dry this weekend under pt to
mstly sunny skies. Highs Sat 50-55. Lows Sat nite in the 30s except
near 40 sern beach areas. Highs Sun 55-60.

Models show low pres dvlpng off the sern coast Sun along with a sfc
trof extending north along the coast. This systm is progged to track
nne along or just east of the Gulf Stream wall Mon/Mon nite before
continuing ne and out into the VaCapes Tue/Wed. Models differ in
just how far north and west pcpn gets. GFS/Canadian keeps most of
the pcpn along the immediate coast of just offshore while the ECMWF
has a track closer to the coast and rain much farther inland. For
now, will keep low chc PoPs along the coast Sun nite/Mon with any
leftover rain pushing offshore Mon eve. Dry west of the Ches Bay.
Lows Sun nite mid 30s nw to mid 40s se. Highs Mon mid 50s-lwr 60s.
Lows Mon nite in the 40s.

Dry Tue/Wed as high pres wedges down the Mid Atlantic coast ahead of
the next systm apprchg from the west. Highs Tue low-mid 60s. Lows
Tue nite 45-50. Highs Wed in the 60s.

A cold front apprchs the mts by next Thurs. Will carry low chc PoPs
ahead of the bndry. Highs mid 60s-lwr 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Thursday...

A warm front and low pressure will push across the area this
evening. Then, a strong cold front will sweep through the
region late tonight, with upper level low pressure tracking
across the region Fri. This will result in VFR to IFR/LIFR
conditions affecting the TAF sites this evening into Fri
evening. Rain showers with possible tstms through this evening,
then rain or snow Fri morning into Fri aftn, with rain or snow
likely more at RIC/SBY/PHF. With low pressure moving off the
coast and strong sfc high pressure building in from the NW,
strong NNE winds 15-20 kt with gusts to at least 25-35 kt, will
result over the area from early Fri morning into early Fri
evening.

OUTLOOK...
High pressure builds into the area from the north Fri night into
Sun. Low pressure is progged to linger off the southeast and
Mid Atlc coast early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Southerly winds 5-15 kts this afternoon will increase to 15-20 kts
by late afternoon into this evening as a warm front lifts north
across the area. Waves in the bay 1-2 ft and seas 3-4 ft. Some
dense marine fog is possible again tonight especially over the
northern coastal waters.

Low cuts across the Mid-Atlantic and drags a cold front across the
area tonight. Winds become northerly after the frontal passage.
Tightening pressure gradient and CAA will result in wind speeds
increasing overnight into tomorrow morning, and remaining strong
throughout the day. N/NE winds 25-35 kts with gusts of 35-45 kts
expected, with the strongest winds over the coastal waters. Waves in
the bay will build to 4-7 ft and seas build to 8-14 ft.

Gale conditions subside by Saturday morning however strong high
pressure to the north and a low developing off the coast of Florida
will keep near SCA winds and elevated seas through at least the end
of the weekend and possibly into early next week as the low lingers
off the SE coast.

As for headlines, SCA's currently in effect for the bay, coastal
waters and Currituck sound for the southerly surge this afternoon
into early this evening. Gale warnings go into effect overnight for
all waters including the rivers. The Gale warning for the rivers
(excluding the lower James) runs until 22Z Friday. The lower James
goes until 02Z Saturday. The bay goes until 05Z Saturday, and until
11Z for the coastal waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Strong N-NNE winds are expected behind a cold front moving
through the region overnight. Water levels will rise across the
mid/lower Ches Bay and Atlantic coast of SE VA/NE NC on Friday,
with tidal anomalies of 1 to 3 feet above normal possible
(locally higher in spots) from Friday through Friday night. The
highest water levels are expected to occur Friday night, as
this is the higher of the two astronomical tides. While
astronomical tides are expected to remain relatively low, minor
to localized moderate coastal flooding will be possible in the
bay and along the Atlantic coast. Coastal Flood Watch issued for
Eastern Currituck County and the lower Chesapeake Bay and
Virginia Beach for Friday into early Saturday. In addition,
large breaking waves will likely result in beach erosion from
Fri through the weekend. Damage to dune structures is expected
across the nrn Outer Banks. High surf advisory issued for surf
zone waves of 8-10 feet from Friday morning to Saturday morning
over the northern Atlantic coast, and Friday afternoon to
Saturday afternoon over Virginia Beach and northern Outer Banks
NC.

Water levels are expected to slowly fall this weekend as winds
relax a bit (but likely remain considerably higher than normal
given the persistent N-NE flow and elevated seas).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM EDT Friday for MDZ024-025.
     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 7 AM EDT Saturday for
     MDZ025.
NC...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ017-
     102.
     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM EDT Saturday for
     NCZ102.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Friday
     night for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday
     morning for VAZ089-090-093-095-096-098-100-523>525.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ095-
     098.
     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 PM EDT Saturday for
     VAZ098.
     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM EDT Friday for VAZ099-100.
     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 7 AM EDT Saturday for
     VAZ099-100.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM EDT Friday for VAZ077-078-
     084>086-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Gale Warning from 2 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634-
     656-658.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM Friday to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-
     658.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ633.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Friday for ANZ638.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/RHR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJB/CMF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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