Small Craft Advisory 447, NWS Juneau, AK

763 
FZAK51 PAJK 300000
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-301530-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A developing low will track northward to the Dixon  Entrance
Wednesday night, then shift NE into Canada Thursday. A gale force
front moves eastward through the gulf on Thursday. Outlook. A 
Storm Force low moves north into the eastern gulf Friday. 

$$

PKZ011-301530-
Glacier Bay-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the evening. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft in the morning then 2 ft or less. Rain showers in the 
afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-301530-
Northern Lynn Canal-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt late. Seas building 
to 4 ft. Rain showers early in the evening. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain 
showers.

.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...S gale to 35 kt decreasing to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding 
to 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-301530-
Southern Lynn Canal-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt late. Seas building to 4
ft. Showers in the evening.
.THU...N wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Showers in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers.
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-301530-
Icy Strait-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing late. Seas 4 ft in the
evening then 2 ft or less late. Showers early in the evening.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
or less. Showers in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers late. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers.
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-301530-
Cross Sound-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Showers in the morning, then showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE late. Seas 10 ft.
Showers.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Showers.
.SAT...S gale to 45 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 25 ft
subsiding to 17 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-301530-
Stephens Passage-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers 
early in the evening. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
Showers.
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-301530-
Northern Chatham Strait-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 4 ft. Showers early in 
the evening. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Showers in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft late. Showers late. 
.FRI...S gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Showers.
.SAT...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-301530-
Southern Chatham Strait-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft
near ocean entrances. Showers.
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft,
except 6 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas
5 ft building to 8 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas 11 ft.
Showers.
.FRI...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft, except 17 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 17 ft,
except 26 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
.SAT...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 13 ft
subsiding to 6 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-301530-
Frederick Sound-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N late. Seas 4 ft. Showers 
early in the evening. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-301530-
Sumner Strait-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers early in the evening.
Showers late. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
Showers.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 12 ft 
near ocean entrances. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 11 ft, except
20 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-301530-
Clarence Strait-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 25 kt then becoming N 15 kt late.
Strongest winds near Dixon Entrance. Seas 9 ft. Showers.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the 
afternoon. Showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 4 ft 
building to 7 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas 8 ft. Showers 
late. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Showers.
.SAT...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
547 AM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.SHORT TERM...A front has continued to move N into the panhandle
during the overnight hours. Through the rest of the morning,
expect associated precip to reach as far N as the central
Panhandle. With the southern placement of this low, areas across
the north are expected to remain on the dryer side as northerly
flow impedes any significant rainfall accumulations. Some
instability could result in a few rumbles of thunder across the S
Panhandle and Sitka this morning, but do not expect any
significant convective activity otherwise.

Wednesday night, a new low forms along the frontal boundary of
the parent low in the gulf and races into the S parts of our AOR.
This will re-intensify winds and rainfall across the southern
panhandle. There is some uncertainty with track of the secondary
low. Confidence is high that the low will enter Dixon Entrance but
any shift to the north will allow for higher winds across the
south. For now, thinking is that the low will track through Dixon
Entrance with the highest winds staying south of the AOR. Rainfall
across the northern two thirds of the panhandle will be
significantly less than the south as northerly flow keeps heaviest
rainfall to the south Wednesday into early Thursday. 36 hour
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected across the south
with less than 0.50 inches across the northern and central
panhandle.

The next big story is the arrival of more widespread rain through
Thursday, especially through Thursday night which will be
associated with the next wave of systems to impact SE Alaska.
Alongside the rain, elevated winds can be expected for many of the
inner channels. It is looking increasingly likely that this will
merely be the prelude to a powerful fall system which will impact
the panhandle through the latter half of Friday and much of
Saturday. A High Wind Watch has been posted for the Outer Coastal
Areas as well as the Southern Panhandle from Friday afternoon
through Saturday morning. Otherwise, temperatures through the
short- term remain seasonal with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s
and night time lows in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM.../ Friday to Wednesday as of 9 pm Tuesday / Friday
and Saturday look to be the most active portion of the next week.
A strongly deepening low with central pressure likely below 960
mb will pull into the gulf and then curve northwest before heading
back towards the Kenai Peninsula by Saturday night. The system
looks to have its main front moving into the panhandle Friday
evening, and a second wrap about the low center to the northeast
gulf coast by early Saturday morning. Model solutions are closing
in on a more central single solution, and as a result need to
adjust the Friday/Saturday forecast a bit more.

Have deepened the low depth into the 950s, and bumped up winds as
well where there is a significant band of 50 to 60 kt over the
outer waters, and 35 to 45 kt gales over a several of the inner
channels. Forecast seas for Friday to Saturday were also increased
significantly. Rainfall for the panhandle for the 48 hour period
also ranging generally between 3 and 8 inches through Saturday
night. QPF totals in the forecast looking to range between 2 and 5
year return intervals over the panhandle. Will be watching this
as rivers have been primed with rain from 2 prior events

If the pattern holds and seas build and move as models are
thinking there could be some very impressive waves moving into
the northeast gulf coast area around Yakutat structures near the
shoreline.

After Saturday Southeast Alaska should expect a continuation of
showers and the improvement starting on Monday into Tuesday. A
ridge is building over the eastern gulf towards the panhandle for
Tuesday while a new deep low continues to develop over the
northern Bering Sea and will be attempting to push the next front
to the western gulf Tuesday night.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning
     for AKZ017-022-023-027-028.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-033-035-036-041>043-051>053.

&&

GFS/Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
619 AM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

AKZ017>029-301500-
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Eastern Baranof Island and Southern Admiralty Island-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Southern Inner Channels-Misty Fjords-
Including the cities of Yakutat, Skagway, Haines, Gustavus,
Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican, Sitka, Port Alexander, Angoon,
Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, Kake, Craig, Klawock, Ketchikan,
Metlakatla, and Hyder
619 AM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

...POWERFUL LATE WEEK STORM TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST ALASKA...

After two systems affect the southern and central Panhandle, one
Wednesday morning and a second late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, a more powerful fall storm arrives in the Gulf of Alaska
Friday night. Some uncertainty remains on the strength, track,
and timing of this complex system, but heavy rainfall and high
winds have become likely for portions of the Panhandle.

High wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph are possible from the southern
Inner Channels including Ketchikan northwest along the coast to
Baranof Island and Sitka all the way to Yakutat. The threat
includes Prince of Wales Island as well. Friday night is the most
likely threat, but the winds could persist longer, especially into
Yakutat Saturday morning. High wind watches have been posted from
late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Should the storm
move inland across the northern Panhandle, other areas may see
gusts to 60 mph as well, including Juneau and Gustavus. Should
the storm track closer to the coast, Wrangell and Kake could
receive stronger winds. As confidence grows, high wind watches
could be extended elsewhere.

Over the waters, we now expect storm force winds of 50 to 60 kt
over the Gulf of Alaska from late Friday afternoon through
Saturday morning. Seas are forecast to reach 30 feet plus for much
of the gulf during the same time period. Widespread gales are a
strong possibility for much of the Inner Channels.

Heavy rain begins across the area Thursday night and persists for
the region through Saturday. Rain could remain heavy through
Sunday. From Thursday night through Saturday afternoon, 48-hour
rainfall totals are expected to fall between 3 and 6 inches.

Aside from high winds, high seas, and heavy rainfall, there is
also the risk of flooding and landslides in prone areas.

As confidence grows further, other weather bulletins may be
issued. Please stay alert for more information on expected weather
impacts through the weekend.