Gale Warning 173, NWS Juneau, AK

257 
FZAK67 PAJK 301143
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 AM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-010545-
343 AM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A low in Dixon Entrance moves ashore into Misty Fjords this 
morning. A ridge of high pressure builds across the Inner Channels
this afternoon. A gale force front arrives in the eastern gulf 
Thu night and stalls across the Panhandle Fri morning. Outlook. A 
storm force low arrives in the eastern gulf Fri night.

$$

PKZ310-010545-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
343 AM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt becoming SW 35 kt late in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt becoming SE gale to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...W storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Showers.
.SAT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

312 
FZAK67 PAJK 302339
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 PM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-011745-
339 PM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force front pushes through the gulf Thursday night and 
into Friday morning. A storm force low moves into the southern 
gulf Friday afternoon and moves north through Saturday. Seas are 
expected to build to very high conditions late Friday night into 
Saturday. 

$$

PKZ310-011745-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
339 PM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building
to 15 ft. Rain showers in the evening. 
.FRI...S wind 35 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 
ft building to 19 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...W storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain
showers. 
.SAT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Showers in the morning.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft or less. 

$$

451 
FZAK67 PAJK 011136
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 AM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-020545-
336 AM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force low pushes through the gulf Thursday night and into
Friday morning. A storm force low moves into the southern gulf
Friday afternoon and moves north through Saturday. Seas are
expected to build to very high conditions late Friday night into
Saturday.  

$$

PKZ310-020545-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
336 AM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

...STORM WARNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 60 kt becoming W 45 kt late. Seas 25 ft. Rain 
showers.
.SAT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers in the
morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...Wind variable less than 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
359 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ Very active weather over the
next several days for SE Alaska with different features moving
through each period. An elongated area of low pressure over the
eastern gulf has had multiple smaller vortices or areas of low
pressure rotating about it. These have contributed to a band of
showers tracking northward across the region through the day.
Meanwhile, a new surface low center has formed at the base of the
large scale upper level trough well to the south. This low can be
seen with satellite imagery drawing up moisture from the central
Pacific. The low looks to track into the Dixon Entrance region
around midnight and bring more moderate to heavy showers for the
southern panhandle. A shift in the low track slightly east/west
will cause large changes to the wind direction through Clarence
Strait and the surrounding Ketchikan area. At this time, we think
that the place to see the strongest winds from tonight's low is
the Metlakatla area, very similar to last night, where gusts of 40
mph are in the forecast.

On Thursday morning the low will shift NE into central B.C. and
most of the inside waters will have a wind shift from N-NE to
S-SW through the day. A trough of low pressure extending over the
NE gulf from the Dixon Entrance low will have a more organized
band of showers along it all the way up to Yakutat. Expect this
band to track into the outer coast mid-day and inland through the
afternoon. Some potential exists with this band of showers for
some lightning or ice pellets, particularly in the vicinity of
Mt. Fairweather.

**SIGNIFICANT FALL SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY**

An atmospheric river approaches the NE gulf coast Thursday night,
then spreads east over the entire panhandle by early Friday
morning. A new low center will develop and track along the front
into the eastern gulf Friday night and increase rainfall
rates/continue the heavy rain into the weekend. Between Thursday
night and Saturday night 2.5 to 5 inches of rain is expected with
greatest amounts in the Pelican area and in upslope favored areas.

Marine/wind impacts: A major fall storm system is expected to
develop in the north pacific on Friday as energy from both the
northern and southern streams of the jet stream phase together. A
powerful 150+ kt jet streak rounds the base of a large trough over
the gulf of Alaska Friday then pushes northward into SE Alaska. A
near hurricane force low develops in the north pacific in
response to the phasing systems then pushes northward into the
eastern gulf late Friday night. After coordination with the Ocean
Prediction Center and reviewing the latest models and ensembles,
confidence is increasing that much of the eastern gulf will see
high end storm force winds with hurricane force gusts likely.
Models continue to trend eastward with the track of the low
pushing it into Cape Fairweather on Saturday. A further east track
will mean significant impacts possible for the eastern gulf and
through the Inner Channels. Gale force winds are expected through
the Central and Southern Inner Channels Friday into Saturday. An
80 kt low level jet associated with the low combined with low
level instability may lead to a widespread high wind event across
Southeast Alaska. High Wind Watches have been posted from the Icy
Strait Corridor (including Juneau) and southward for Friday
evening through Saturday afternoon. Another significant risk
factor will be a possible wind shift from the SE to the SW as the
front passes through. A wind shift with high winds may cause
additional impacts as weakened trees and power lines may easily
be knocked down. Also cannot rule out the potential for
landslides. during the time of the windshift. This storm system
will be monitored very closely over the next few days.

Confidence is increasing throughout the short term as guidance
comes into better agreement. There is still some uncertainty
regarding the track of the near hurricane force low on Friday;
however guidance is converging on a more eastern track. A blend of
the GFS/EURO was preferred for this forecast package.

.LONG TERM.../ Friday to Wednesday as of 9 pm Tuesday / Friday
and Saturday look to be the most active portion of the next week.
A strongly deepening low with central pressure likely below 960
mb will pull into the gulf and then curve northwest before heading
back towards the Kenai Peninsula by Saturday night. The system
looks to have its main front moving into the panhandle Friday
evening, and a second wrap about the low center to the northeast
gulf coast by early Saturday morning. Model solutions are closing
in on a more central single solution, and as a result need to
adjust the Friday/Saturday forecast a bit more.

Have deepened the low depth into the 950s, and bumped up winds as
well where there is a significant band of 50 to 60 kt over the
outer waters, and 35 to 45 kt gales over a several of the inner
channels. Forecast seas for Friday to Saturday were also increased
significantly. Rainfall for the panhandle for the 48 hour period
also ranging generally between 3 and 8 inches through Saturday
night. QPF totals in the forecast looking to range between 2 and 5
year return intervals over the panhandle. Will be watching this
as rivers have been primed with rain from 2 prior events. Rapidly
improving conditions will occur during the day on Saturday as the
low weakens and pushes into Canada.

If the pattern holds and seas build and move as models are
thinking there could be some very impressive waves moving into
the northeast gulf coast area around Yakutat structures near the
shoreline.

After Saturday Southeast Alaska should expect a continuation of
showers and the improvement starting on Monday into Tuesday. A
ridge is building over the eastern gulf towards the panhandle for
Tuesday while a new deep low continues to develop over the
northern Bering Sea and will be attempting to push the next front
to the western gulf Tuesday night.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning
     for AKZ017-022-023-027-028.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-035-036-041>043-051-052.

&&

Ferrin/CM/Bezenek

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