Small Craft Advisory 445, NWS Juneau, AK

011 
FZAK52 PAJK 300000
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-301800-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A developing low will track northward to the Dixon Entrance 
Wednesday night, then shift NE into Canada Thursday. A gale force
front moves eastward through the gulf on Thursday. Outlook. A 
Storm Force low moves north into the eastern gulf Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-301800-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
Showers.
.THU...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 12 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Showers late. 
.FRI...S gale to 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S storm force wind to 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas
29 ft. Showers.
.SAT...SW gale to 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 25 ft
subsiding to 18 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-301800-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Showers.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Showers in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Showers.
.FRI...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S storm force wind to 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas
34 ft. Showers.
.SAT...SW storm force wind to 50 kt diminishing to 20 kt.
Seas 32 ft subsiding to 18 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-301800-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 12 ft
subsiding to 8 ft late. 
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. Showers in the morning, then slight chance of thunderstorms
in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Showers.
.FRI...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE storm force wind to 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas 
39 ft. Showers.
.SAT...S storm force wind to 50 kt diminishing to 25 kt.
Seas 39 ft subsiding to 22 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-301800-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 12 ft
subsiding to 8 ft late. 
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt late. Seas
12 ft. Rain showers in the evening. Slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...E storm force wind to 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 37
ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...SE gale to 45 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 39 ft
subsiding to 25 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-301800-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
400 PM AKDT Wed Sep 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell late. Rain
showers in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 33 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt becoming SE. Seas 38 ft subsiding to
26 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

958 
FZAK52 PAJK 301151
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
351 AM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-010600-
351 AM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low in Dixon Entrance moves ashore into Misty Fjords this 
morning. A ridge of high pressure builds across the Inner Channels
this afternoon. A gale force front arrives in the eastern gulf 
Thu night and stalls across the Panhandle Fri morning. Outlook. A 
storm force low arrives in the eastern gulf Fri night. 

$$

PKZ041-010600-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
351 AM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. Showers in the morning,
then slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Showers late. 
.FRI...S gale to 35 kt increasing to storm force wind to 50 kt
in the afternoon. Gusts to 65 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft
building to 23 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW storm force wind to 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt.
Seas 43 ft. 
.SAT...SW gale to 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 31 ft
subsiding to 17 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-010600-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
351 AM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the morning, then
increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft building to 13 ft
in the afternoon. Showers early in the morning, then slight
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 13 ft 
building to 17 ft late. Showers.
.FRI...S gale to 35 kt increasing to storm force wind to 50 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW storm force wind to 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt.
Seas 44 ft. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SAT...SW gale to 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 38 ft
subsiding to 16 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-010600-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
351 AM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW in the morning, then becoming
W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. Showers early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Showers.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 18 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E storm force wind to 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas
41 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...SW gale to 45 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 38 ft
subsiding to 17 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-010600-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
351 AM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers in the evening.
Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 31 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...W wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 28 ft subsiding
to 16 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-010600-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
351 AM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming W in the morning, then becoming S
in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas 13 ft.
Showers in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. S swell. Rain showers. 
.SAT...W wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding
to 12 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

243 
FZAK52 PAJK 302338
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-011745-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front pushes through the gulf Thursday night and 
into Friday morning. A storm force low moves into the southern 
gulf Friday afternoon and moves north through Saturday. Seas are 
expected to build to very high conditions late Friday night into 
Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-011745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Showers late. 
.FRI...S wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 65 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft building to 28 ft in
the afternoon. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 39 ft. Showers
in the evening, then slight chance of thunderstorms late. 
.SAT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 26 ft. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. W swell. Rain
showers. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-011745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt late. Seas 13 ft
building to 17 ft late. Showers.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft building to 27 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S storm force wind to 50 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas
40 ft. Showers in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SAT...SW gale to 40 kt. Seas 34 ft. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-011745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt. Seas 12 ft building to
16 ft late. Showers.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft building to 23 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E storm force wind to 55 kt becoming SW late.
Gusts to 70 kt. Seas 33 ft. Showers.
.SAT...SW gale to 45 kt. Seas 34 ft. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-011745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft building 
to 13 ft. Showers in the evening, then slight chance of 
thunderstorms late. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Showers in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt becoming N gale to 35 kt late.
Seas 24 ft. Showers.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-011745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
338 PM AKDT Thu Sep 30 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the evening, then
becoming S 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft building to 15 ft. Showers in
the evening, then slight chance of thunderstorms late. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft.
SW swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming NW late. Seas 11 ft
building to 16 ft late. SW swell increasing to S late. Showers.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
254 PM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021

.SHORT TERM...A gale force low has moved into the central gulf
bringing with it a frontal band that will push onshore tonight.
Ahead of this front, a brief drying trend has been observed across
the panhandle as we have a weak ridge over the inner channels.
This ridge is being displaced as our next weather system surges
onshore. Satellite imagery shows high clouds moving over the
panhandle slowly filling in any clearing that has occurred today.
Rain begins to move into the southern panhandle this evening along
with windy conditions. Small craft advisories for Southern
Chatham, Sumner, and Clarence Strait are posted through tonight.
Gale warnings are posted along the outside waters through tonight as
well. Over land, strong wind headlines, gusts to 40 mph, have been
posted for southern coastal areas including cities of Sitka, Craig,
Klawock, Ketchikan, and Metlakatla. By Wednesday morning rain will
have blanketed across the southern panhandle. With the southern
placement of this low, areas across the north are expected to remain
on the dryer side as northerly flow impedes any significant rainfall
accumulations.

Wednesday night, a secondary low forms along the frontal boundary
of the parent low in the gulf. This will re-intensify winds and
rainfall across the southern panhandle. There is some uncertainty
with track of the secondary low. Confidence is high that the low
will enter Dixon Entrance but any shift to the north will allow
for higher winds across the south. For now, thinking is that the
low will track through Dixon Entrance with the highest winds
staying south of the AOR. Rainfall across the northern two thirds
of the panhandle will be significantly less than the south as
northerly flow keeps heaviest rainfall to the south Wednesday into
early Thursday. 36 hour rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be
expected across the south with less than 0.50 inches across the
northern and central panhandle. Temperatures through the short-
term remain seasonal with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and
night time lows in the low to mid 40s.

...UPDATED...

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday as of 9 pm Monday...
Confidence is increasing in a strong storm force low to rapidly
intensify in the gulf Friday and Saturday. Widespread high end
storm force winds are becoming likely across all outercoast
waters. Across land areas, conditions are being monitored for the
potential threat of high winds during this time frame, winds
gusting to 60 mph. Widespread heavy rain is also expected through
this period as there will be deep subtropical moisture present.

Period begins with a complex low in the gulf with solutions
suggesting multiple perturbations rotating around the parent low.
This feature will get absorbed into the next low pressure system
moving out of the Bering into the gulf Fri. Ensemble solutions are
in fairly good agreement on the low moving settling near Prince
William Sound late Fri before gradually weakening. The biggest
spread lies in the strength of this low. MSLP minimums in mb range
from the upper 950s to low 990s early Sat. Ensembles show
standardized anomalies of +3-5 for low level winds with gales
expected for the gulf waters, SCA to near gales over the inner
channels and strong winds for land areas over the outer coast and
favored areas of the S panhandle Fri into Sat. The other impact
from this storm will be moderate to heavy precip to SE AK.
Although there is still some uncertainty as to where heaviest
precip will be focused with this system, this system will progress
from the NE gulf coast through the S panhandle through Sat. Storm
total rainfall of 1.5-4 inches are in the 1-2 year return
intervals. Given the active weather prior to this period will need
to continue monitoring the potential for flooding from this
system. Low over the NW gulf will gradually fill through the
weekend with several disturbances likely rotating around the
parent and ejecting into the AOR will maintain active weather
through the period. However, there are no signals at this time of
any one of these bringing more impactful weather to the region
than another, so trended towards WPC guidance heading into next
week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday for
     AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind from 7 PM AKDT this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ023.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-035-051>053.

&&

CC/BC

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