Wind Chill Advisory 16, NWS Fairbanks, AK

454 
WWAK41 PAFG 062225
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
125 PM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

AKZ204-071500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-210208T1500Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
125 PM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions. In addition, areas of poor visibility are 
  expected. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Cold wind chills as 
  low as 60 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 10 
  minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The
latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ203-071500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-210207T2100Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
125 PM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills 
  will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed 
  skin. Expect wind chills to range from 35 below zero to 60 
  below zero.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...through noon Sunday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

329 
WWAK41 PAFG 071459
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
559 AM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

AKZ204-080000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-210208T1500Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
559 AM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow occurring. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions. In addition, areas of poor visibility are 
  expected. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Cold wind chills as 
  low as 60 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 10 
  minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means periods of
blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ203-072100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-210207T2100Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
559 AM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills occurring. The cold wind chills 
  will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin.
  Expect wind chills to range from 35 below zero to 60 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...through noon Sunday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

762 
WWAK41 PAFG 071553
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
653 AM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

AKZ201-080100-
/O.NEW.PAFG.WC.W.0005.210208T0600Z-210210T0900Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
653 AM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT AKST TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. The dangerously
  cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes
  to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to  to 70 below zero.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...9 PM this evening to midnight Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Warning means the combination of very cold air and
sustained wind speeds of 15 mph or more will create dangerously
low wind chill values. Frost bite can occur quickly and even
hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ206-080100-
/O.EXB.PAFG.WW.Y.0023.210207T2100Z-210210T0900Z/
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, 
and Franklin Bluffs
653 AM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT
AKST TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Blowing snow and very cold wind chills to 55 occuring.
  Plan on areas of poor visibilities to create difficult travel
  conditions at times. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow. 

* WHERE...In passes of the Northeastern Brooks Range.

* WHEN...Noon today to midnight Tuesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow. Dangerously cold wind chills
  to 55 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 10 
  minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means periods of
blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ204-080100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-210208T1500Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
653 AM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blowing snow and very cold wind chills to 55 below occuring.
  Plan on areas of poor visibilities to create difficult travel 
  conditions at times. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will cause 
  areas of blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow. Cold wind chills as low as
  55below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to
  exposed skin. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means periods of
blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. 

$$

AKZ203-072100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-210207T2100Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
653 AM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills to 50 below occuring. The cold wind
  chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to
  exposed skin. 

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Now to noon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Conditions will become less severe this
  afternoon as winds decrease. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and sustained wind
speeds of 15 mph or more will create low wind chills. Frost bite
and hypothermia can occur if precautions are not taken.

$$

232 
WWAK41 PAFG 071759
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
859 AM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

AKZ203-071900-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WC.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-210207T2100Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
859 AM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished and the wind chill advisory is cancelled.

$$

AKZ201-080200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WC.W.0005.210208T0600Z-210210T0900Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
859 AM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT AKST TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. The dangerously 
  cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 
  minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to to 70 below 
  zero. 

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...9 PM this evening to midnight Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Warning means the combination of very cold air and
sustained wind speeds of 15 mph or more will create dangerously
low wind chill values. Frost bite can occur quickly and even
hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken.

$$

AKZ204-080200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-210208T1500Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
859 AM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Cold wind chills to 55 below occuring.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Cold wind chills as low as 55 below zero 
  will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means periods of
blowing snow will cause travel difficulties.

$$

AKZ206-080200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0023.210207T2100Z-210210T0900Z/
Northeastern Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake, Sagwon, 
and Franklin Bluffs
859 AM AKST Sun Feb 7 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
MIDNIGHT AKST TUESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Blowing snow and very cold wind chills to 55 below occuring.
  Plan on areas of poor visibilities to create difficult travel 
  conditions at times. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will cause 
  areas of blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...In passes of the Northeastern Brooks Range.

* WHEN...Noon today to midnight Tuesday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Dangerously cold wind chills to 55 below 
  zero will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed 
  skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for blowing snow means periods of
blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
344 PM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

SYNOPSIS...Another round of snow for the southern Interior.
Similar snow amounts to the last system that moved through with
the heaviest snow in the Kantishna Hills. Temperatures warming in
the Interior and on the Eastern Arctic Coast as some snow moves
into that area as well. Snow tapering off overnight on the West
Coast as it spreads inland and the low dissipates.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...05/12Z solutions are in good agreement through Saturday
then get messy to the point that we will just have to pick a
solution and go with it for now. The only thing reasonable clear
at this time is that temperatures will be below climatological
normals over Northern Alaska this next week. Precipitation
solutions are spread out a bit with the GFS being the faster, the
ECMWF the more aggressive as far as coverage, and the NAM
somewhere in between. A blend of the GFS and NAM for timing looks
like the best route to take with a nudge from the ECMWF for
broader coverage. Will need to kick the Probabilities up quite a
bit to get the better than chance probabilities that we expect.
Winds are a bit tricky as well with the much stronger low in the
Eastern Bering Sea we will need to kick the winds up on St
Lawrence Island, in the Bering Strait, and from Nome south along
the coast. The GFS MOS looks strongest on St Lawrence Island,
while the ECMWF MOS looks strongest on the West Coast, so will
lean toward them to kick the winds up. of the to get in generally
good agreement out west, but the ECMWF is a bit too aggressive so
will lean a little more toward the NAM and GFS this cycle.
Temperatures will be warming into Sunday.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing associated with the 491 dam low in
the Canadian Archipelago is over Arctic and will pull south and
east tonight as the low moves south into the Northwest
Territories. A 496 dam low will develop north of Banks Island
tonight and move over the Southern Beaufort Sea by Saturday
afternoon. Ridging over the Northeast Pacific extends northwest
over Prince William Sound to Point Hope then northwest to a 548
dam high in the Siberian Arctic. A closed 525 dam low that
developed south of the Pribilofs yesterday has moved over St
Lawrence Island with troughing extending west to a 498 dam low
over the Sea of Ohkotsk. A 501 dam low has moved south of the
Western Aleutians. Late this evening the ridging will break down
as the closed low over St Lawrence Island moves over the Bering
Strait at 531 dam and starts to merge with troughing that will be
swinging south around the low over the Beaufort Sea. By Saturday
afternoon the troughing will be over the Interior with the low
over the Middle Yukon River and heights rising. Ridging from the
Northeast Pacific will reform to the west of the low as it extends
northwest over Bristol Bay and the Western Gulf of Anadyr. The
low south of the Aleutians will move over the Western Bering Sea
as the low over the Sea of Ohkotsk moves south, then the lows
merge over the Southeast Sea of Ohkotsk by Sunday morning. The
high over the Siberian Arctic will be moving south toward Wrangel
Island and as it moves over the island will merge with the
Northeast Pacific ridge as it slide east over the Chukchi Sea. By
Monday morning a blocky pattern will set up with a trough over the
AlCan Border and Beaufort Sea, ridging over the Eastern Bering
Sea and Chukchi Sea, and troughing over Kamchatka. At 850
hpa...-20C isotherm will continue to pull northeast this evening
and by Saturday morning it will lie from Northway to Oliktok
Point. AS the upper level low over the Beaufort Sea moves south it
will start dumping cold air into the state with the -20C isotherm
being pushed south to lie from McCarthy to Point Lay by Monday
morning with some -30C temperatures north and east of Fort Yukon.

Surface...High pressure associated with a 1056 dam high 800 nm
northwest of Wrangel Island extends southeast to a developing 1035
mb high over the Arctic Plain, then south over the Western
Interior to a 1038 mb high near Sand Point. A weather front has
moved to the West Coast spreading snow to the Northern Norton
Sound coast with some flurries to the east as a 1002 mb low has
moved to St Lawrence Island and will move northeast over the
Seward Peninsula tonight as the front moves north of the Alaska
Range. The low will drift back south as it dissipates and moves
east along the front north of the Alaska Range Saturday. A 1025 mb
low in the Northern Beaufort Sea will move south to the
Northwest Territories Coast by Saturday evening at 1026 mb with
an associated warm front moving southeast across the Eastern
Arctic Coast Saturday morning. The high pressure over the Siberian
Arctic will move southeast into the Arctic Saturday night and
will be 400 nm north of Wainwright Sunday afternoon at 1062 mb
with a 1055 mb high developing over the Eastern Brooks Range as
the low pressure over the southern Interior is pushed east.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Wind chill values continue to be
very low east of Utqiagvik, and on the Northwest Coast. Wind
Chill to 60 below is possible tonight. A front approaching the
Eastern Arctic Coast will bring some relief from the cold as
clouds move in and light snow moves through the area. The respite
will be short lived as move cold will be moving into the area with
clearing skies by Sunday. Temperatures will warm a bit with lows
in the teens to 30s below range Saturday and Sunday. A return of
very cold temperatures for next week, with another round of very
cold Wind Chill expected for the coastal areas.

West Coast and Western Interior...Near Blizzard conditions on St
Lawrence and around Nome this afternoon, but conditions improving
through the evening. Winds a bit stronger than forecast will
diminish a bit slower. Snow along the coast tapering off overnight
as the front moves east. Snowfall in the interior will be lighter.
Snowfall across the area will range from 1 to 4 inches.
Temperatures warming.

Central and Eastern Interior...Increasing clouds for area mainly
south of the Yukon River. This system is similar to the one on
Wednesday and Thursday. Snow will be spreading east tonight with
heaviest snowfall in Denali Park around the Kantishna Hills.
Snowfall 1 to 3 inches around Fairbanks with only trace amounts of
snow north of the Yukon River. Temperatures warming through
Saturday. Strong push of cold air into the Interior next week will
bring temperatures of 30 to 50 below to many areas.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Generally clear and cold all
week. Stratus will impact temperatures if it develops over the
Interior.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ201-AKZ203-AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ245.

&&

SDB FEB 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
115 AM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

AKZ221>223-061215-
Central Interior-Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Nenana, Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs,
Rampart, Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
115 AM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

...Snow in Tanana Valley Through Saturday Evening...

Very light snow has begun in the Denali, Nenana, Fairbanks and
Delta Junction Areas. Light snow will continue tonight, then
increase about 4 am with moderate snow continuing through the day
Saturday. Snow will taper off Saturday evening in most areas.

A storm total of 2 and 3 inches of snow is expected by Saturday
evening in most areas, including Nenana, Fairbanks and Delta
Junction. The area from Clear Air Force Base to Denali can expect
4 to 7 inches of snow.

JB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
344 AM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

AKZ221>223-070300-
Central Interior-Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Nenana, Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs,
Rampart, Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
344 AM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

...Snow in Tanana Valley Through Saturday Evening...

Very light snow is falling in the Denali, Nenana, Fairbanks and
Delta Junction areas. Light snow will continue through early this
morning, then increase around 4 am to 6 am with moderate snow
continuing through the day Saturday. Snow will taper off Saturday
evening in most areas.

A storm total of 2 to 3 inches of snow is expected by Saturday
evening in most areas, including Nenana, Fairbanks and Delta
Junction. The area from Clear Air Force Base to Denali can expect
4 to 7 inches of snow.