Brisk Wind Advisory 56, NWS Fairbanks, AK

618 
FZAK52 PAFG 062252
CWFWCZ

Coastal Waters Forecast for Northwest Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
152 PM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

Northwestern Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ299-071500-
152 PM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A decaying low over Norton Sound will move E and dissipate. High
pressure will build over the West Coast N of St Lawrence Island as
a 1061 mb high moves to 200 nm N of Utqiagvik by Mon morning. A 
weather front will move to the Northeast Bering Sea and stall.

$$

PKZ200-071500-
Norton Sound-
152 PM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

.TONIGHT...NE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ210-071500-
Dall Point to Wales-
152 PM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE winds 30 kt increasing to 35 kt SW of St Lawrence
Island. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less.
.SUN...NE winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 40 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...N winds 20 kt. 
.THU...N winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ215-071500-
Kotzebue Sound-
152 PM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

.TONIGHT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...E winds 20 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...NE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...NE winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ220-071500-
Wales to Cape Thompson-
152 PM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N winds 25 kt. Strongest winds near the Bering Strait.
.SUN...NE winds 25 kt. Strongest winds near the Bering Strait.
.SUN NIGHT...NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...N winds 15 kt. 
.THU...N winds 15 kt.  

$$

SDB Feb 21

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
344 PM AKST Fri Feb 5 2021

SYNOPSIS...Another round of snow for the southern Interior.
Similar snow amounts to the last system that moved through with
the heaviest snow in the Kantishna Hills. Temperatures warming in
the Interior and on the Eastern Arctic Coast as some snow moves
into that area as well. Snow tapering off overnight on the West
Coast as it spreads inland and the low dissipates.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...05/12Z solutions are in good agreement through Saturday
then get messy to the point that we will just have to pick a
solution and go with it for now. The only thing reasonable clear
at this time is that temperatures will be below climatological
normals over Northern Alaska this next week. Precipitation
solutions are spread out a bit with the GFS being the faster, the
ECMWF the more aggressive as far as coverage, and the NAM
somewhere in between. A blend of the GFS and NAM for timing looks
like the best route to take with a nudge from the ECMWF for
broader coverage. Will need to kick the Probabilities up quite a
bit to get the better than chance probabilities that we expect.
Winds are a bit tricky as well with the much stronger low in the
Eastern Bering Sea we will need to kick the winds up on St
Lawrence Island, in the Bering Strait, and from Nome south along
the coast. The GFS MOS looks strongest on St Lawrence Island,
while the ECMWF MOS looks strongest on the West Coast, so will
lean toward them to kick the winds up. of the to get in generally
good agreement out west, but the ECMWF is a bit too aggressive so
will lean a little more toward the NAM and GFS this cycle.
Temperatures will be warming into Sunday.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing associated with the 491 dam low in
the Canadian Archipelago is over Arctic and will pull south and
east tonight as the low moves south into the Northwest
Territories. A 496 dam low will develop north of Banks Island
tonight and move over the Southern Beaufort Sea by Saturday
afternoon. Ridging over the Northeast Pacific extends northwest
over Prince William Sound to Point Hope then northwest to a 548
dam high in the Siberian Arctic. A closed 525 dam low that
developed south of the Pribilofs yesterday has moved over St
Lawrence Island with troughing extending west to a 498 dam low
over the Sea of Ohkotsk. A 501 dam low has moved south of the
Western Aleutians. Late this evening the ridging will break down
as the closed low over St Lawrence Island moves over the Bering
Strait at 531 dam and starts to merge with troughing that will be
swinging south around the low over the Beaufort Sea. By Saturday
afternoon the troughing will be over the Interior with the low
over the Middle Yukon River and heights rising. Ridging from the
Northeast Pacific will reform to the west of the low as it extends
northwest over Bristol Bay and the Western Gulf of Anadyr. The
low south of the Aleutians will move over the Western Bering Sea
as the low over the Sea of Ohkotsk moves south, then the lows
merge over the Southeast Sea of Ohkotsk by Sunday morning. The
high over the Siberian Arctic will be moving south toward Wrangel
Island and as it moves over the island will merge with the
Northeast Pacific ridge as it slide east over the Chukchi Sea. By
Monday morning a blocky pattern will set up with a trough over the
AlCan Border and Beaufort Sea, ridging over the Eastern Bering
Sea and Chukchi Sea, and troughing over Kamchatka. At 850
hpa...-20C isotherm will continue to pull northeast this evening
and by Saturday morning it will lie from Northway to Oliktok
Point. AS the upper level low over the Beaufort Sea moves south it
will start dumping cold air into the state with the -20C isotherm
being pushed south to lie from McCarthy to Point Lay by Monday
morning with some -30C temperatures north and east of Fort Yukon.

Surface...High pressure associated with a 1056 dam high 800 nm
northwest of Wrangel Island extends southeast to a developing 1035
mb high over the Arctic Plain, then south over the Western
Interior to a 1038 mb high near Sand Point. A weather front has
moved to the West Coast spreading snow to the Northern Norton
Sound coast with some flurries to the east as a 1002 mb low has
moved to St Lawrence Island and will move northeast over the
Seward Peninsula tonight as the front moves north of the Alaska
Range. The low will drift back south as it dissipates and moves
east along the front north of the Alaska Range Saturday. A 1025 mb
low in the Northern Beaufort Sea will move south to the
Northwest Territories Coast by Saturday evening at 1026 mb with
an associated warm front moving southeast across the Eastern
Arctic Coast Saturday morning. The high pressure over the Siberian
Arctic will move southeast into the Arctic Saturday night and
will be 400 nm north of Wainwright Sunday afternoon at 1062 mb
with a 1055 mb high developing over the Eastern Brooks Range as
the low pressure over the southern Interior is pushed east.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Wind chill values continue to be
very low east of Utqiagvik, and on the Northwest Coast. Wind
Chill to 60 below is possible tonight. A front approaching the
Eastern Arctic Coast will bring some relief from the cold as
clouds move in and light snow moves through the area. The respite
will be short lived as move cold will be moving into the area with
clearing skies by Sunday. Temperatures will warm a bit with lows
in the teens to 30s below range Saturday and Sunday. A return of
very cold temperatures for next week, with another round of very
cold Wind Chill expected for the coastal areas.

West Coast and Western Interior...Near Blizzard conditions on St
Lawrence and around Nome this afternoon, but conditions improving
through the evening. Winds a bit stronger than forecast will
diminish a bit slower. Snow along the coast tapering off overnight
as the front moves east. Snowfall in the interior will be lighter.
Snowfall across the area will range from 1 to 4 inches.
Temperatures warming.

Central and Eastern Interior...Increasing clouds for area mainly
south of the Yukon River. This system is similar to the one on
Wednesday and Thursday. Snow will be spreading east tonight with
heaviest snowfall in Denali Park around the Kantishna Hills.
Snowfall 1 to 3 inches around Fairbanks with only trace amounts of
snow north of the Yukon River. Temperatures warming through
Saturday. Strong push of cold air into the Interior next week will
bring temperatures of 30 to 50 below to many areas.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Generally clear and cold all
week. Stratus will impact temperatures if it develops over the
Interior.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ201-AKZ203-AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ245.

&&

SDB FEB 21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
115 AM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

AKZ221>223-061215-
Central Interior-Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Nenana, Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs,
Rampart, Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
115 AM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

...Snow in Tanana Valley Through Saturday Evening...

Very light snow has begun in the Denali, Nenana, Fairbanks and
Delta Junction Areas. Light snow will continue tonight, then
increase about 4 am with moderate snow continuing through the day
Saturday. Snow will taper off Saturday evening in most areas.

A storm total of 2 and 3 inches of snow is expected by Saturday
evening in most areas, including Nenana, Fairbanks and Delta
Junction. The area from Clear Air Force Base to Denali can expect
4 to 7 inches of snow.

JB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
344 AM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

AKZ221>223-070300-
Central Interior-Middle Tanana Valley-Deltana and Tanana Flats-
Including Nenana, Anderson, Tanana, Minto, Manley Hot Springs,
Rampart, Lake Minchumina, Livengood, Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright,
Eielson AFB, Ester, North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox,
Chatanika, Chena Hot Springs, Sourdough Camp, Salcha,
Delta Junction, Fort Greely, Harding/Birch Lake, Dry Creek,
Dot Lake, and Healy Lake
344 AM AKST Sat Feb 6 2021

...Snow in Tanana Valley Through Saturday Evening...

Very light snow is falling in the Denali, Nenana, Fairbanks and
Delta Junction areas. Light snow will continue through early this
morning, then increase around 4 am to 6 am with moderate snow
continuing through the day Saturday. Snow will taper off Saturday
evening in most areas.

A storm total of 2 to 3 inches of snow is expected by Saturday
evening in most areas, including Nenana, Fairbanks and Delta
Junction. The area from Clear Air Force Base to Denali can expect
4 to 7 inches of snow.