Winter Weather Advisory 76, NWS Anchorage, AK

484 
WWAK41 PAFC 282204
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
104 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

AKZ121-290600-
/O.EXB.PAFC.WW.Y.0076.211228T2204Z-211229T0600Z/
Western Kenai Peninsula-
Including the cities of Kenai, Soldotna, Homer, 
and Cooper Landing
104 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING
FROM KENAI EAST...

* WHAT...Freezing rain occurring. Ice accumulations of up to one 
  tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Western Kenai Peninsula from Kenai east, including
  Soldotna and Sterling.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be extremely hazardous, including 
  during the evening commute. Be prepared for slippery roads.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of light freezing rain are developing
  this afternoon at lower elevations, then are expected to become
  heavier during the late afternoon. The precipitation will
  quickly end from west to east this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ101-291115-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0076.211229T0000Z-211229T1300Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
104 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain and snow expected. Total ice 
  accumulations up to two tenths of an inch. Total snow 
  accumulations up to 2 inches, mainly along the mountains.

* WHERE...Anchorage.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be extremely hazardous, including 
  during the evening commute. Be prepared for slippery roads.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of light freezing rain will develop 
  this afternoon at lower elevations, then become heavier during 
  the evening hours. Temperatures along the Anchorage Hillside 
  and other higher elevations will be above freezing with 
  southeast winds gusting to 35 mph and plain rain. 
  Precipitation will change to snow for all areas around 
  midnight, then quickly end from west to east.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ111-291115-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0076.211229T0000Z-211229T1300Z/
Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
104 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain and snow expected. Total ice 
  accumulations of up to one quarter of an inch. Total snow 
  accumulations of up to 4 inches, mainly north and east of 
  Palmer.

* WHERE...Matanuska Valley.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be extremely hazardous, including 
  during the evening commute. Be prepared for slippery roads. 
  Ice accumulation may cause downed power lines and falling tree 
  branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of light freezing rain will develop 
  this afternoon, then become heavier during the evening hours. 
  Precipitation will change to snow during the late evening 
  hours, then quickly end from west to east.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ141-291115-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0076.211229T0300Z-211229T1300Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
104 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 4 AM AKST WEDNESDAY NORTH OF GAKONA...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 
  inches.

* WHERE...North of Gakona, including Paxson, Chistochina and 
  Slana.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow and highest snow 
  accumulation will be close to the Alaska Range. This includes 
  the Richardson Highway near Paxson and the Tok Cutoff from 
  Chistochina to Mentasta Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ145-290900-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0076.211229T0000Z-211229T0900Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
104 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Freezing rain and snow expected. Total ice 
  accumulations up to two tenths of an inch. Total snow 
  accumulations of up to 2 inches.

* WHERE...From Talkeetna southward in the Susitna Valley.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to midnight AKST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be extremely hazardous, including 
  during the evening commute. Be prepared for slippery roads.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of light freezing rain will develop 
  this afternoon, then become heavier heading into the evening 
  hours. Precipitation will change to snow during the mid to 
  late evening hours, then quickly end by midnight. For the 
  Parks Highway corridor north of Talkeetna, precipitation is 
  expected to fall mainly as snow, with 2 to 4 inches 
  accumulation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

206 
WWAK41 PAFC 290046
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

AKZ101-291000-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0076.000000T0000Z-211229T1000Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
346 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain and snow expected. Total ice 
  accumulations up to two tenths of an inch. Total snow 
  accumulations up to 2 inches, mainly along the mountains.

* WHERE...Anchorage.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be extremely hazardous, including 
  during the evening commute. Be prepared for slippery roads.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of light freezing rain will develop 
  this afternoon at lower elevations, then become heavier during 
  the evening hours. Temperatures along the Anchorage Hillside 
  and other higher elevations will be above freezing with 
  southeast winds gusting to 35 mph and plain rain. 
  Precipitation will change to snow for all areas around 
  midnight, then quickly end from west to east.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ111-291000-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WW.Y.0076.000000T0000Z-211229T1000Z/
Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
346 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain and snow expected. Total ice 
  accumulations of up to one quarter of an inch. Total snow 
  accumulations of up to 4 inches, mainly north and east of 
  Palmer.

* WHERE...Matanuska Valley.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be extremely hazardous, including 
  during the evening commute. Be prepared for slippery roads. 
  Ice accumulation may cause downed power lines and falling tree 
  branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of light freezing rain will develop 
  this afternoon, then become heavier during the evening hours. 
  Precipitation will change to snow during the late evening 
  hours, then quickly end from west to east.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ121-290600-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0076.000000T0000Z-211229T0600Z/
Western Kenai Peninsula-
Including the cities of Kenai, Soldotna, Homer, 
and Cooper Landing
346 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain occurring. Ice accumulations of up to one 
  tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Western Kenai Peninsula from Kenai east, including 
  Soldotna and Sterling.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be extremely hazardous, including 
  during the evening commute. Be prepared for slippery roads.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of light freezing rain are 
  developing this afternoon at lower elevations, then are 
  expected to become heavier during the late afternoon. The 
  precipitation will quickly end from west to east this evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ141-291300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0076.211229T0300Z-211229T1300Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
346 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY NORTH OF GAKONA...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 
  inches.

* WHERE...North of Gakona, including Paxson, Chistochina and 
  Slana.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow and highest snow 
  accumulation will be close to the Alaska Range. This includes 
  the Richardson Highway near Paxson and the Tok Cutoff from 
  Chistochina to Mentasta Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ145-290900-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0076.000000T0000Z-211229T0900Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
346 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Freezing rain and snow expected. Total ice 
  accumulations up to two tenths of an inch. Total snow 
  accumulations of up to 2 inches.

* WHERE...From Talkeetna southward in the Susitna Valley.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to midnight AKST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be extremely hazardous, including 
  during the evening commute. Be prepared for slippery roads.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of light freezing rain will develop 
  this afternoon, then become heavier heading into the evening 
  hours. Precipitation will change to snow during the mid to 
  late evening hours, then quickly end by midnight. For the 
  Parks Highway corridor north of Talkeetna, precipitation is 
  expected to fall mainly as snow, with 2 to 4 inches 
  accumulation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

972 
WWAK41 PAFC 290546
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
846 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

AKZ101-111-290700-
/O.CAN.PAFC.WW.Y.0076.000000T0000Z-211229T1000Z/
Anchorage-Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, Eklutna, 
Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
846 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Temperatures across the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley have 
warmed to or above freezing, limiting development of freezing 
rain/drizzle. While pockets of light freezing rain/drizzle are 
still possible in colder locations, significant ice accretion is 
no longer expected due to the warmer temperatures. Temperatures 
will begin to fall overnight, with any lingering liquid 
precipitation changing to snow before ending. Little to no snow 
accumulation is expected. Black ice on area roadways is possible 
for Wednesday as temperatures fall back below freezing. 

$$

AKZ145-290700-
/O.CAN.PAFC.WW.Y.0076.000000T0000Z-211229T0900Z/
Susitna Valley-
Including the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell
846 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Temperatures across the southern Susitna Valley have warmed to or
above freezing, limiting development of freezing rain/drizzle.
Precipitation has transitioned to light snow from Talkeetna north
and west. While pockets of light freezing rain/drizzle are still 
possible in colder locations, significant ice accretion is no 
longer expected due to the warmer temperatures. Temperatures will 
begin to fall overnight, with any lingering liquid precipitation 
changing to snow before ending. Up to 2 inches of snow is 
possible, mainly from Talkeetna north and west. Black ice on area 
roadways is possible Wednesday morning as temperatures fall back 
below freezing. 

$$

AKZ121-290700-
/O.CAN.PAFC.WW.Y.0076.000000T0000Z-211229T0600Z/
Western Kenai Peninsula-
Including the cities of Kenai, Soldotna, Homer, 
and Cooper Landing
846 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Temperatures across the western Kenai Peninsula have warmed to or
above freezing, limiting development of freezing rain/drizzle. 
While pockets of light freezing rain/drizzle are still possible in
colder locations, significant ice accretion is no longer expected
due to the warmer temperatures. Temperatures will begin to fall 
overnight, with any lingering liquid precipitation changing to 
snow before ending. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. 
Black ice on area roadways is possible for Wednesday as 
temperatures fall back below freezing. 

$$

AKZ141-291300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0076.000000T0000Z-211229T1300Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
846 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY NORTH OF GAKONA...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 
  inches.

* WHERE...North of Gakona, including Paxson, Chistochina and 
  Slana.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow and highest snow 
  accumulation will be close to the Alaska Range. This includes 
  the Richardson Highway near Paxson and the Tok Cutoff from 
  Chistochina to Mentasta Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

452 
WWAK41 PAFC 291303
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
403 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

AKZ141-291415-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WW.Y.0076.000000T0000Z-211229T1300Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
403 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED NORTH OF GAKONA...

Snow had mainly ended in the Copper River Basin though there may 
still be another hour or two of snow in the Mentasta Pass region.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Infrared and water vapor satellite imagery show a strong upper
level ridge in the North Pacific and a stacked low in the
northern Bering. A warm front extends off the Bering low and
stretches across much of Alaska. In the Southwest, rain is slowly
tapering off. Bethel and King Salmon have recorded just over 0.15
inches with the warm front, and this plentiful moisture is
producing fog over much of the Southwest. In Southcentral, fog
that began in the morning has mostly dissipated due to high clouds
moving in ahead of the warm front. Across the Aleutians, broad
southerly flow and warm advection has kept today's highs in the
40s, with temperatures in Unalaska and Adak reaching the 50s. The
advection of warm air aloft with yesterday and today's warm fronts
are apparent in the 00Z soundings for Bethel, King Salmon, and
Anchorage. In particular, the Anchorage sounding features a stout
inversion, with 26 degrees at the surface and 40 degrees at 900
ft.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good synoptic agreement through the short term.
Model differences are greatest for precipitation timing and
amounts for Tuesday's front. In the Southwest, the GFS keeps the
bulk of precipitation further north in the Kuskokwim Delta. In
contrast, the NAM and Canadian show higher QPF in Bristol Bay.
Tuesday evening, models differ with the timing of embedded
shortwaves entering Southcentral. As a result, the NAM and
Canadian bring precipitation over Southcentral earlier than the
GFS, suggesting higher total QPF and the potential for greater
freezing precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog is likely (and light freezing drizzle is possible)
overnight due to warm air aloft and low-level moisture. Confidence
is high that ceilings will increase to at least MVFR Tuesday
morning as the temperature inversion lifts. However, confidence
with the timing and amount of freezing rain Tuesday afternoon is
low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
2/Tonight through Wednesday)...

A shortwave trough is pushing through Southcentral this evening.
Radar returns are filling in across the Anchorage Bowl southward
into the Turnagain Arm. Areas of light freezing drizzle will be
possible into the after-dark hours which will likely result in
slick and icy roadways tonight. Not to be outdone, a second area
of low pressure is forecast to move into Southcentral late Tuesday
with a higher chance of freezing rain across the Matanuska Valley
southward into the Kenai Peninsula. Latest numerical guidance has
trended slightly warmer with upper level temperatures and this
will favor initial precipitation in the form of freezing rain
through early Wednesday morning. Accumulations of up to a tenth of
an inch will be possible with locally higher amounts not out of
the question for the higher elevations, where warmer surface
temperatures may slow the transition to all snow. Cold air
advection will eventually bring a transition to all snow by early
Wednesday morning as low pressure continues eastward and a cold
front cools upper level temperatures over Southcentral. What
previously looked like a more straight forward forecast has
quickly become increasingly complicated with increased uncertainty
in duration of freezing rain as well as total ice accumulations.
We will be updating the forecast with additional information as
the finer details are worked out.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Thursday)...

A frontal system moving across the area will continue to produce
valley rain and snow in the higher elevations. This front will
quickly move away this evening with a brief break tonight, however
stratus and fog are likely across most valleys and coastal
locations through Tuesday. A stronger front will move across the
area beginning Tuesday morning bringing more rain to most valleys.
However, interior valleys, especially the lower Kuskokwim River
Valley, will see a wintry mix briefly before changing to all rain.
Winds will also increase from the south with this system with
gusts to 30 to 40 mph at times especially across the Y-K Delta.
Tuesday afternoon and evening a cold front will push inland which
will bring cooler air to the area. There could be a brief mix of
snow, but most of the precipitation will end by the time the cold
air arrives. Wednesday will be a slightly cooler day, but still
above normal for late December as a ridge of high pressure moves
over the area for Tuesday night and Wednesday. A pair of frontal
systems will approach, first on Wednesday afternoon and evening
bringing a rain snow mix to coastal areas of Bristol Bay and
possible farther inland. However, some uncertainty on how far
inland the snow will occur. A second stronger front moves inland
by Thursday bringing a good chance of snow to inland locations and
better chances of rain near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Thursday)...

Several fronts and low pressure systems will move across the area
through the next couple of days producing areas of Gales and
periods of rain. Areas of Gales are expected near a cold front
moving across the Bering through Tuesday. Otherwise a couple of
compact lows will move across the western Aleutians and Bering
through Wednesday producing small areas of Gales near the low. A
stronger low and frontal system will enter the central and eastern
Aleutians late Wednesday and Thursday producing a wider area of
Gales extending into the Bering, especially behind the low and
cold front as cold air enhances the winds on Thursday. The AKPen
will see periods of rain and Gales most of the period, however on
Tuesday night and Wednesday colder air will bring some snow to
the area but generally 1 to 3 inches in populated areas.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...

Bering...A North Pacific low tracks towards the Pribilofs
Thursday, then enters Southwest Alaska Friday. Winds will be
northerly across most of the Bering, peaking at high-end gales on
the backside of the low. Southerly small crafts are expected
ahead of the low. Starting Friday, a Kamchatka low brings
southerly gales as its front tracks into the Western and Central
Bering. Seas will be mostly 8-15 ft except 15-25 ft where gales
are expected.

Gulf of Alaska...Winds below small crafts and seas below 8 ft
persist through Thursday evening, when a low develops in the Gulf.
Expect widespread small crafts, with a gale-force barrier jet
along the northern Gulf Friday morning. As the low moves
southeast late Friday, cold outflow winds will develop with storm
force winds possible through Kamishak Gap. Seas 8 ft or lower
Thursday will increase to 15-25 ft by late Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 8: Friday through Monday)...

An upper-level trough moves across the Southern Mainland Friday
through Saturday. Its associated surface low and fronts will
bring widespread precipitation across Southwest Friday,
transitioning to showers late Friday into Saturday. Precipitation
is expected to begin early Friday in Southcentral, tapering off
by late Saturday evening. Currently, mixed precipitation or rain
look likely over Kodiak and parts of the Southwest as 850 mb
temperatures peak just above freezing. In Southcentral,
precipitation is likely to remain snow.

Once precipitation ends, cold and mostly dry conditions are
expected through Monday for the Southern Mainland. A low in the
Gulf and a highly amplified ridge in the Bering Sea will allow for
northerly cold air advection and gusty gap winds. As a Kamchatka
front tracks eastward, it will bring rain across the Aleutians
Friday through Monday and push the ridge eastward into the
Southwest.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 120 130-132 138 165 170 172-178 185 351 352
					  411-414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...KC