Small Craft Advisory 1044, NWS Anchorage, AK

117 
FZAK52 PAFC 290009
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-291315-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A North Pacific low strengthens to 983 mb 210 nm north of Atka by
Thu afternoon. Its front crosses the Southern Bering by Thu 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-291315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ155-291315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, W wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable
10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt except S 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-291315-
Bristol Bay-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas in ice free
waters 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-291315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt except E 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 8 ft.
Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-291315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Rain.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-291315-
Unalaska Bay-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Rain with snow.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-291315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-291315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ174-291315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-291315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-291315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft.
.THU...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ177-291315-
Adak to Kiska-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 45 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.THU...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

PKZ178-291315-
Kiska to Attu-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain with snow.
.THU...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ179-291315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-291315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-291315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-291315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
309 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

123 
FZAK52 PAFC 291233
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-300115-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 mb low 150 nm southwest of Adak Wed evening moves to 200 nm
north of Adak at 985 mb Thu morning. It then moves to 150 nm east
of St. Paul at 990 mb by Fri morning. Its front extends across 
the northern and western Bering Thu through Fri.

$$

PKZ150-300115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 55 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 60 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 55 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ155-300115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 20 kt
becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 55 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...N wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-300115-
Bristol Bay-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice
free waters 5 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-300115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt except SE 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 7 
ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-300115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-300115-
Unalaska Bay-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-300115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-300115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-300115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft building to 23 ft in the
afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ175-300115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ176-300115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 ft
building to 29 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft.

$$

PKZ177-300115-
Adak to Kiska-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft Bering side... 27 ft Pacific side.
Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft.

$$

PKZ178-300115-
Kiska to Attu-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt in the morning increasing to 25 kt. Seas 13 
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NW 40 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-300115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt in the morning becoming E 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-300115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-300115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Heavy freezing spray after midnight.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-300115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
333 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 30 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of Saint Matthew Island.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of Saint
Matthew Island. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Infrared and water vapor satellite imagery show a strong upper
level ridge in the North Pacific and a stacked low in the
northern Bering. A warm front extends off the Bering low and
stretches across much of Alaska. In the Southwest, rain is slowly
tapering off. Bethel and King Salmon have recorded just over 0.15
inches with the warm front, and this plentiful moisture is
producing fog over much of the Southwest. In Southcentral, fog
that began in the morning has mostly dissipated due to high clouds
moving in ahead of the warm front. Across the Aleutians, broad
southerly flow and warm advection has kept today's highs in the
40s, with temperatures in Unalaska and Adak reaching the 50s. The
advection of warm air aloft with yesterday and today's warm fronts
are apparent in the 00Z soundings for Bethel, King Salmon, and
Anchorage. In particular, the Anchorage sounding features a stout
inversion, with 26 degrees at the surface and 40 degrees at 900
ft.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good synoptic agreement through the short term.
Model differences are greatest for precipitation timing and
amounts for Tuesday's front. In the Southwest, the GFS keeps the
bulk of precipitation further north in the Kuskokwim Delta. In
contrast, the NAM and Canadian show higher QPF in Bristol Bay.
Tuesday evening, models differ with the timing of embedded
shortwaves entering Southcentral. As a result, the NAM and
Canadian bring precipitation over Southcentral earlier than the
GFS, suggesting higher total QPF and the potential for greater
freezing precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog is likely (and light freezing drizzle is possible)
overnight due to warm air aloft and low-level moisture. Confidence
is high that ceilings will increase to at least MVFR Tuesday
morning as the temperature inversion lifts. However, confidence
with the timing and amount of freezing rain Tuesday afternoon is
low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
2/Tonight through Wednesday)...

A shortwave trough is pushing through Southcentral this evening.
Radar returns are filling in across the Anchorage Bowl southward
into the Turnagain Arm. Areas of light freezing drizzle will be
possible into the after-dark hours which will likely result in
slick and icy roadways tonight. Not to be outdone, a second area
of low pressure is forecast to move into Southcentral late Tuesday
with a higher chance of freezing rain across the Matanuska Valley
southward into the Kenai Peninsula. Latest numerical guidance has
trended slightly warmer with upper level temperatures and this
will favor initial precipitation in the form of freezing rain
through early Wednesday morning. Accumulations of up to a tenth of
an inch will be possible with locally higher amounts not out of
the question for the higher elevations, where warmer surface
temperatures may slow the transition to all snow. Cold air
advection will eventually bring a transition to all snow by early
Wednesday morning as low pressure continues eastward and a cold
front cools upper level temperatures over Southcentral. What
previously looked like a more straight forward forecast has
quickly become increasingly complicated with increased uncertainty
in duration of freezing rain as well as total ice accumulations.
We will be updating the forecast with additional information as
the finer details are worked out.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Thursday)...

A frontal system moving across the area will continue to produce
valley rain and snow in the higher elevations. This front will
quickly move away this evening with a brief break tonight, however
stratus and fog are likely across most valleys and coastal
locations through Tuesday. A stronger front will move across the
area beginning Tuesday morning bringing more rain to most valleys.
However, interior valleys, especially the lower Kuskokwim River
Valley, will see a wintry mix briefly before changing to all rain.
Winds will also increase from the south with this system with
gusts to 30 to 40 mph at times especially across the Y-K Delta.
Tuesday afternoon and evening a cold front will push inland which
will bring cooler air to the area. There could be a brief mix of
snow, but most of the precipitation will end by the time the cold
air arrives. Wednesday will be a slightly cooler day, but still
above normal for late December as a ridge of high pressure moves
over the area for Tuesday night and Wednesday. A pair of frontal
systems will approach, first on Wednesday afternoon and evening
bringing a rain snow mix to coastal areas of Bristol Bay and
possible farther inland. However, some uncertainty on how far
inland the snow will occur. A second stronger front moves inland
by Thursday bringing a good chance of snow to inland locations and
better chances of rain near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Thursday)...

Several fronts and low pressure systems will move across the area
through the next couple of days producing areas of Gales and
periods of rain. Areas of Gales are expected near a cold front
moving across the Bering through Tuesday. Otherwise a couple of
compact lows will move across the western Aleutians and Bering
through Wednesday producing small areas of Gales near the low. A
stronger low and frontal system will enter the central and eastern
Aleutians late Wednesday and Thursday producing a wider area of
Gales extending into the Bering, especially behind the low and
cold front as cold air enhances the winds on Thursday. The AKPen
will see periods of rain and Gales most of the period, however on
Tuesday night and Wednesday colder air will bring some snow to
the area but generally 1 to 3 inches in populated areas.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...

Bering...A North Pacific low tracks towards the Pribilofs
Thursday, then enters Southwest Alaska Friday. Winds will be
northerly across most of the Bering, peaking at high-end gales on
the backside of the low. Southerly small crafts are expected
ahead of the low. Starting Friday, a Kamchatka low brings
southerly gales as its front tracks into the Western and Central
Bering. Seas will be mostly 8-15 ft except 15-25 ft where gales
are expected.

Gulf of Alaska...Winds below small crafts and seas below 8 ft
persist through Thursday evening, when a low develops in the Gulf.
Expect widespread small crafts, with a gale-force barrier jet
along the northern Gulf Friday morning. As the low moves
southeast late Friday, cold outflow winds will develop with storm
force winds possible through Kamishak Gap. Seas 8 ft or lower
Thursday will increase to 15-25 ft by late Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 8: Friday through Monday)...

An upper-level trough moves across the Southern Mainland Friday
through Saturday. Its associated surface low and fronts will
bring widespread precipitation across Southwest Friday,
transitioning to showers late Friday into Saturday. Precipitation
is expected to begin early Friday in Southcentral, tapering off
by late Saturday evening. Currently, mixed precipitation or rain
look likely over Kodiak and parts of the Southwest as 850 mb
temperatures peak just above freezing. In Southcentral,
precipitation is likely to remain snow.

Once precipitation ends, cold and mostly dry conditions are
expected through Monday for the Southern Mainland. A low in the
Gulf and a highly amplified ridge in the Bering Sea will allow for
northerly cold air advection and gusty gap winds. As a Kamchatka
front tracks eastward, it will bring rain across the Aleutians
Friday through Monday and push the ridge eastward into the
Southwest.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 120 130-132 138 165 170 172-178 185 351 352
					  411-414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...KC