Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2021
Small Craft Advisory 1041, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at Dec 27, 2021, 3:46 PM AKST. It was in force for 12 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 27, 2021, 3:46 PM AKST (00:46 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 28, 2021, 3:57 AM AKST
- In force
- 12 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
863 FZAK52 PAFC 280046 CWFALU Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ199-281345- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS... A 985 mb low near 175 nm north of Attu Island moves north and dissipates by Tue morning. Its front moves across the Bering through Tue afternoon. A developing 1000 mb low 140 nm east of Attu Island Tue night moves with its front into the Northern Bering by Wed afternoon. $$ PKZ150-281345- South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft. .WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. .FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. .SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. $$ PKZ155-281345- South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. From the Shumagin Islands E, W wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. .WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. .FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. .SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ160-281345- Bristol Bay- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. .TUE...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Rain. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. .WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. .THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. .FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. .SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. $$ PKZ165-281345- Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. From Port Moller E, SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TUE...S wind 35 kt becoming W in ther afternoon. Seas 10 ft. .TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. From Port Moller E, W wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 10 ft. Rain. .WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. .SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ170-281345- Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TUE...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft. Rain. .WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. .FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. .SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. $$ PKZ171-281345- Unalaska Bay- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ172-281345- Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. .TUE...SW wind 30 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft. .TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft. Rain. .WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. .THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. .FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. .SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ173-281345- Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. .TUE...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. .TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain. .WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. .WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. .FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. .SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. $$ PKZ174-281345- Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain. .TUE...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. .TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 14 ft. .WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. .THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. .FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. .SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. $$ PKZ175-281345- Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers. .TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 7 ft. .WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. .FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. $$ PKZ176-281345- Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers. .TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 14 ft. .WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. .WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. .THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. .FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. .SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. $$ PKZ177-281345- Adak to Kiska- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 ...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft Bering side... 17 ft Pacific side. Rain. .TUE...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. .TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 16 ft. .WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .WED NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. .THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. .FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. .SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. $$ PKZ178-281345- Kiska to Attu- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 ...GALE WARNING TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. .TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. .WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. .WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. .FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. .SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 31 ft. $$ PKZ179-281345- Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. .TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. .WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. .FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ180-281345- Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Rain. .TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft. .WED AND WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ181-281345- North and West of Nunivak Island- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain. .TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. .WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. .WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. .FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ185-281345- Saint Matthew Island Waters- 346 PM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021 ...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. .TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. .WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. .WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. .THU...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. .FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. .SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. $$
1 follow-up statement
596 FZAK52 PAFC 281257 CWFALU Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ199-290200- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS... A 986 mb low 280 nm northwest of St Paul moves north over the Bering Strait Tue evening. Its front moves across the Bering through Tue evening. A 985 mb low 270 nm south of Shemya Wed afternoon moves to 60 nm north of Amchitka Thurs morning. $$ PKZ150-290200- South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft. .WED...NW wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. .WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. .THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. .FRI...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. .SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft. $$ PKZ155-290200- South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. From the Shumagin Islands E, W wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. .WED...S wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E. Seas 12 ft. .WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. .THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. .FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. .SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. $$ PKZ160-290200- Bristol Bay- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. .WED...S wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. .WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. .THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. .FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. .SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. $$ PKZ165-290200- Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft. .WED...E wind 30 kt except E 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow. .WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. .FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. .SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ170-290200- Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. Rain. .WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain. .WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. .THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. .FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft. .SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ171-290200- Unalaska Bay- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...SW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain. .WED...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain. .WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. .THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. .FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. .SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ172-290200- Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft. Rain. .WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain. .WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. .THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft. .FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft. .SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. $$ PKZ173-290200- Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft. .TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft. .WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. .WED NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. .FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. .SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$ PKZ174-290200- Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain. .WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain. .WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. .THU...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft. .FRI...W wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. .SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ175-290200- Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft. .WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. .THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft. .FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. .SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ176-290200- Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. .TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. .WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. .WED NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. .THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft. .FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. .SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. $$ PKZ177-290200- Adak to Kiska- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. .TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 15 ft. .WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. .WED NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. .THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. $$ PKZ178-290200- Kiska to Attu- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. .WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. .WED NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. .THU...W wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft. $$ PKZ179-290200- Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft. .WED...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. .WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. .THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. .FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. .SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ180-290200- Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. .FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. .SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ181-290200- North and West of Nunivak Island- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. .WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. .THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. .FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. .SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. $$ PKZ185-290200- Saint Matthew Island Waters- 357 AM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE wind 35 kt in the morning becoming SW 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. .WED...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. .WED NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. .FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. .SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 27, 5:31 AM AKST, 10 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 27, 5:31 AM AKST, 10 hours 15 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
531 AM AKST Mon Dec 27 2021
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A ~120 kt upper jet streak currently extends across the Aleutians,
Kuskokwim Delta and through Southcentral. Likewise a very strong
upper ridge axis is located over the eastern Bering, with the 540
Dm line as far north as the Bering Strait. Water vapor imagery
shows a swath of moisture riding the top of the ridge. As such,
rain is seen across much of the Kuskokwim Delta. On the east side
of the upper ridge axis, warm air is overriding cold air, leading
to periods of scattered light freezing rain/drizzle in
Southcentral where surface temperatures are closer to or slightly
below freezing. All liquid precipitation is seen farther south
where surface temperatures remain above freezing. Chinook westerly
winds are bringing gusty conditions and very warm temperatures
(in the 50s) to Kodiak. Off/on Precipitation will continue through
this morning as embedded upper shortwaves propagate ahead of the
aforementioned ridge axis, though no significant ice accretion is
expected.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good synoptic agreement and are generally
handling the mixed precipitation well. As usual, the main issues
remain the exact timing of embedded shortwaves over Southcentral
ahead of the upper level ridge axis. NAM appears slightly faster
with them on the latest run, but is still relatively in line with
the GFS. In any case, this would likely only mean the difference
of a few hours at most. All models likewise show the next system
tracking across Southcentral late Tuesday into Wednesday, though
exact timing and precipitation types remain uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...Light freezing rain/drizzle will remain possible today
though is not expected to be prolonged. LIFR/IFR ceilings and
light/variable winds will persist.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Wednesday night)...
The strong subtropical ridge over the North central Pacific will
continue to bring mild temperatures and mixed precipitation types
to Southcentral for the next couple days before we begin to
transition back to a colder/snowier pattern mid to late in the
week. For the time being, all is quiet in between upper waves
transiting across the top of the ridge. The 12Z Anchorage sounding
reflects cold air advection which moved through behind yesterday's
short-wave trough. However, there is still an above freezing
layer, so if precipitation were to fall right now it would be in
the liquid form. There is also still a significant low level
temperature inversion. As a result, widespread low clouds and fog
are blanketed across most of Southcentral's valleys this morning,
and this will likely linger with no wind to clear it out. Coastal
locations will see some sunshine today as localized gap winds
develop due to the weak cold air advection. Meanwhile, strong
westerly Chinook winds on Kodiak Island will continue to produce
balmy temperatures for Kodiak City and the east side of the
island, with temperatures in the 50s.
A series of weak short-waves will cross Southcentral this afternoon
through early Tuesday, bringing some light precipitation back
into the region. Most of the precipitation will fall well inland
from the northern Susitna Valley across the Talkeetna Mountains
to the Copper River Basin. The airmass here will remain just cold
enough to produce mainly snow. There may be some very light
precipitation as far south as Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley
late this afternoon through early evening. Precipitation type is
much more problematic for these areas. There is the
aforementioned above freezing air aloft, while at the surface some
areas are above freezing (generally higher elevations) while some
areas are below freezing. There likely will be a hodgepodge of
precipitation types. In the wake of the short-wave, a quick shot
of cold air advection combined with the very moist boundary layer
is favorable for areas of fog and freezing drizzle overnight
tonight.
A much stronger short-wave trough will bring another round of
precipitation to Southcentral Tuesday afternoon through early
Wednesday. This short-wave looks like it will track a bit further
south than short-waves in recent days. While the heaviest
precipitation will still be focused inland, the southern tier
of Southcentral from Anchorage southward should see more
precipitation out of this. The airmass in place will not be all
that different from what it is today, so as precipitation first
develops Tuesday afternoon, expect a mix of rain and freezing
rain from the Matanuska Valley southward, with snow as you head
inland. However, a cold front will track quickly from west to east
across Southcentral overnight Tuesday night. This will change
precipitation to all snow for all but maybe the coastal zone.
Snow accumulation is likely from the northern Kenai Peninsula to
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. The timing of changeover to
snow will determine how much snow falls. Strong west to northwest
flow in the cold air advection will favor the west side of the
Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains, with potential for a quick shot
of 6" or more of snow. Stay tuned as we work to fine-tune the
forecast as we get closer in time. Colder and drier air will
settle in across the region on Wednesday, with gusty gap winds
along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today and
Wednesday)...
A persistent wet pattern is likely to continue for Southwest for
a couple more days before a drying trend commences thereafter.
Some colder air from the north may spill over this morning, giving
Hooper Bay and Chevak a chance of light freezing rain or freezing
rain and snow before transitioning back to all rain. Otherwise,
the main weather features will include an upper level wave that
will provide additional rain today for areas of Bristol Bay
northward and then tapering off by this evening. After a brief
break, a warm front extending east from a western Bering low will
send another round of rain and gusty southerly winds into the
forecast area on Tuesday. This will be a much wetter system as a
negatively tilted shortwave trough lifts north in the Bering
Strait and accesses a deep moisture fetch from the tropics. With a
warm, moist airmass coupled with a deep saturated layer in the
wake of previous storms, widespread low stratus and fog will
linger for much across the coastal areas and inland valleys. For
today, expect daytime highs to be in 40s with overnight lows in
the 30s.
As the front exits out of the area Tuesday night, northwesterly,
cold air advection will spill across the mainland with a brief
chance of wintry mix of precipitation for the Y-K Delta and
Bristol Bay regions. By Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure builds
overhead with cooler temperatures and drier conditions expected.
The exception will be for the Alaska Peninsula as a system from
the southern Bering Sea pulls moisture and rain for areas south of
Egegik.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Today
and Wednesday)...
A weakening low pressure system from the North Pacific is
providing rain and widespread small craft to gale force winds
across the Aleutians and northward into the Pribilofs. Based on
the CIMSS MIMIC imagery, a deep plume of moisture of more than
one inch of precipitable water is extending northeastward to the
Bering Sea. As this system tracks near the Kamchatka Peninsula,
another North Pacific low will follow on its heels with a second
round of rain, wind, and high seas at times from this afternoon
into Tuesday. For Tuesday evening into Wednesday, a third North
Pacific low will follow with localized gale force winds for the
western Aleutians. Moist, southerly flow will keep rain continuing
for the eastern and central Aleutians through the middle of the
week. A warm airmass associated with these systems will also help
maintain temperatures well above freezing.
&&
.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...
Bering...Winds diminish to small crafts and below early Wednesday
morning. As a North Pacific low tracks into the Bering, expect
widespread gales Wednesday evening through Friday, with areas of
storm force winds possible. This low moves into the Eastern
Bering on Friday. Behind it, a Kamchatka low brings southerly
gales as its front tracks into the Western and Central Bering.
Seas of 20-30 ft are expected through this period.
Gulf of Alaska...A low develops in the Gulf Wednesday, leading to
cold air advection and outflow winds. Expect widespread small
crafts, with areas of gales especially through Kamishak Gap. Seas
will be 10-15 ft. By late Wednesday night, winds subside below
small crafts and seas below 8 ft. Another low develops in the Gulf
Friday morning, though its position and strength are uncertain.
Areas of small crafts are likely, with a potential for gales if a
barrier jet or robust outflow winds develop. Seas will be 15-25
ft.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 8: Thursday through Sunday)...
A surface low and its front, supported by robust mid-level
vorticity, break down the persistent North Pacific ridge as they
track eastward Thursday. The front will bring widespread
precipitation across Southwest by Thursday morning, transitioning
to showers Friday. Precipitation is expected to begin late
Thursday in Southcentral, tapering off by late Saturday evening.
Though some mixed precipitation is possible, temperatures aloft
look cold enough to support mostly snow outside of Kodiak and the
Aleutians. By Friday, a developing low in the Gulf will drive
offshore flow throughout Southcentral. Uncertainty remains with
the track and strength of this low, leading to uncertainty in
winds and precipitation amounts/timing. Over the Southwest,
northerly flow dominates as a highly amplified ridge builds in the
Bering Sea through Sunday. Over the Western and Central Bering, a
warm front pushing in from the west will bring rain Saturday and
Sunday.
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 120 130-132 138 139 165 170 172-179 185 351
352 411-414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MF
MARINE/LONG TERM...AF/CJIn the hours before
Local storm report, Dec 27, 12:31 PM AKST, 3 hours 15 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1231 PM AKST MON DEC 27 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 PM ICE STORM 1 NNW PALMER 61.62N 149.13W
12/26/2021 MATANUSKA-SUSITNA AK TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER MEASURED 0.4 INCHES OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. MELTED LIQUID 0.35 INCHES.
TIME ESTIMATED BY AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
RUXLocal storm report, Dec 27, 12:39 PM AKST, 3 hours 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1239 PM AKST MON DEC 27 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST KODIAK 57.79N 152.40W
12/26/2021 M84 MPH KODIAK ISLAND AK PUBLIC
WINDY FROM 11PM - 5AM. MEASURED A SUSTAINED
75 MPH WIND, GUSTING TO 84 MPH.
&&
RUXLocal storm report, Dec 27, 12:42 PM AKST, 3 hours 4 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1242 PM AKST MON DEC 27 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM ICE STORM 4 ENE BIG LAKE 61.54N 149.83W
12/26/2021 MATANUSKA-SUSITNA AK NWS EMPLOYEE
REPORTED 0.3 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL ICE
ACCUMULATION STARTING 12/26 AND LASTING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
RUXLocal storm report, Dec 27, 1:14 PM AKST, 2 hours 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
114 PM AKST MON DEC 27 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0240 PM FREEZING RAIN 1 WNW HOUSTON 61.63N 149.82W
12/26/2021 E0.01 INCH MATANUSKA-SUSITNA AK TRAINED SPOTTER
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEGAN 10-11AM, INCREASING
IN INTENSITY TO FREEZING RAIN. ICING ON ROOF
AND WINDOWS. ACCUMULATION ESTIMATED.
&&
KCLocal storm report, Dec 27, 1:19 PM AKST, 2 hours 27 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
119 PM AKST MON DEC 27 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0130 PM FREEZING RAIN 4 ENE SUTTON 61.73N 148.75W
12/26/2021 E0.01 INCH MATANUSKA-SUSITNA AK DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
FREEZING RAIN OBSERVED FROM ABOUT 8:30 TO
9:30 AM.
&&
KCThe office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 4:10 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Dec 28, 3:55 AM AKST | Brisk Wind Advisory | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Dec 28, 3:55 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 35 hr | |
| Dec 28, 3:55 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 60 hr | |
| Dec 28, 3:57 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Dec 28, 3:57 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Dec 28, 4:29 AM AKST | Winter Weather Advisory | AFC | 24 hr |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.