Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Aberdeen, SD

525 
WWUS53 KABR 260911
SVSABR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
311 AM MDT Thu Aug 26 2021

SDC031-260945-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0120.000000T0000Z-210826T0945Z/
Corson SD-
311 AM MDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM MDT
FOR WESTERN CORSON COUNTY...

At 310 AM MDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Morristown to 12 miles west of Black Horse to
near Glad Valley, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Watauga, Black Horse, Klein Ranch, Mcintosh, Walker and Bullhead.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Aberdeen.

&&

LAT...LON 4594 10200 4594 10106 4571 10105 4547 10110
      4547 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0910Z 275DEG 35KT 4596 10167 4571 10164 4543 10169 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

TMT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
309 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Main challenges in the short term will be the timing of various
shortwaves moving through southwest flow aloft -- and the ability of
this upper level forcing to produce strong to severe convection as
well as heavy rain over the next couple of days.

Disorganized and scattered warm air advection/elevated showers and
thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the northern CWA this
morning. Meanwhile another area of convection aligned with a more
distinct shortwave and the nose of a 30 KT LLJ is tracking into far
northwest South Dakota. CAMs don't entirely depict the ongoing
scenario, however a majority suggest the convection out west will be
able to maintain, increase in coverage and track across the CWA
between ~09-18Z. Steep mid level lapse rates, 1000-2000 J/KG of
MU CAPE and 50 KT of effective shear should be a sufficient
environment to support such a scenario. Hail is a threat, along
with strong winds. The big question will be if the storms can
persistently mix the strongest winds down to the surface. Lastly,
heavy rain will be a concern over the next couple of days. PWATs
are expected to top out over 1.5 inches this afternoon...topping
the scales for this time of the year.

Models suggest a break early this afternoon before another round of
convection develops later in the afternoon/evening tracking
northeast out of central South Dakota. And potentially a third round
of nocturnal convection into Friday morning. The threat for strong
to severe storms persists through the time period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Friday night into Saturday it appears we'll see a surface boundary
draped from the NE panhandle northeastward into southeast SD, and
into central MN. Aloft, shortwave energy will be digging into MT and
the western Dakotas. This will set the stage for shower and
thunderstorm potential through this time period. Chances look pretty
good given the upper level support and overall dynamics and
parameters. Could be dealing with strong to severe storms as well.
Models then agree fairly well in showing a brief lull in precip
chances Saturday night into Sunday as surface high pressure moves
across the area. After the high departs, it would appear we get into
a bit of an active pattern for a couple days as a few waves of
energy move across the northern plains. There is still quite a bit
of uncertainty regarding the timing and overall strength of these
waves, but it would seem the area will get into an unsettled pattern
again towards the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through much of the
overnight period. An area of showers and thunderstorms will track
from west to east across the area late tonight through the day
Thursday. Periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys will be possible with the
thunderstorms. Once the precipitation exits the area, IFR/MVFR cigs
will settle in through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Serr
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Serr

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
332 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-270845-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
332 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 /232 AM MDT Thu Aug 26 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. The
first round will track from west to east across the region through
the morning and early afternoon hours. A second round of
thunderstorms will likely track northeast from south central South
Dakota later this afternoon and evening. Yet another, third round of
thunderstorms is possible overnight and into Friday morning. Strong
to severe storms are possible at any time. Hail, strong winds and
heavy rain are all threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The unsettled pattern persists through the weekend, with several
rounds of strong to severe storms possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Weather spotters are
encouraged to submit reports to the National Weather Service in
Aberdeen. The public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook
page, or our Twitter feed.