Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Aberdeen, SD

261 
WWUS53 KABR 261352
SVSABR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
852 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

SDC059-115-261402-
/O.EXP.KABR.SV.W.0126.000000T0000Z-210826T1400Z/
Hand SD-Spink SD-
852 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL HAND AND
SOUTHWESTERN SPINK COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 900 AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for 
eastern Spink County until 930 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 4463 9876 4487 9870 4477 9822 4463 9828
      4464 9870 4463 9871
TIME...MOT...LOC 1352Z 286DEG 29KT 4475 9837 

$$

SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
648 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

See the updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Main challenges in the short term will be the timing of various
shortwaves moving through southwest flow aloft -- and the ability of
this upper level forcing to produce strong to severe convection as
well as heavy rain over the next couple of days.

Disorganized and scattered warm air advection/elevated showers and
thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the northern CWA this
morning. Meanwhile another area of convection aligned with a more
distinct shortwave and the nose of a 30 KT LLJ is tracking into far
northwest South Dakota. CAMs don't entirely depict the ongoing
scenario, however a majority suggest the convection out west will be
able to maintain, increase in coverage and track across the CWA
between ~09-18Z. Steep mid level lapse rates, 1000-2000 J/KG of
MU CAPE and 50 KT of effective shear should be a sufficient
environment to support such a scenario. Hail is a threat, along
with strong winds. The big question will be if the storms can
persistently mix the strongest winds down to the surface. Lastly,
heavy rain will be a concern over the next couple of days. PWATs
are expected to top out over 1.5 inches this afternoon...topping
the scales for this time of the year.

Models suggest a break early this afternoon before another round of
convection develops later in the afternoon/evening tracking
northeast out of central South Dakota. And potentially a third round
of nocturnal convection into Friday morning. The threat for strong
to severe storms persists through the time period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Friday night into Saturday it appears we'll see a surface boundary
draped from the NE panhandle northeastward into southeast SD, and
into central MN. Aloft, shortwave energy will be digging into MT and
the western Dakotas. This will set the stage for shower and
thunderstorm potential through this time period. Chances look pretty
good given the upper level support and overall dynamics and
parameters. Could be dealing with strong to severe storms as well.
Models then agree fairly well in showing a brief lull in precip
chances Saturday night into Sunday as surface high pressure moves
across the area. After the high departs, it would appear we get into
a bit of an active pattern for a couple days as a few waves of
energy move across the northern plains. There is still quite a bit
of uncertainty regarding the timing and overall strength of these
waves, but it would seem the area will get into an unsettled pattern
again towards the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A couple of rounds of thunderstorms are possible today. A line of
storms is expected to impact the KABR and KATY TAF site before
18Z. Additional thunderstorms activity is possible later this
afternoon/evening over south central South Dakota, tracking
northeast into parts of east central South Dakota. Periods of
MVFR cigs and vsbys will be possible with any thunderstorms. IFR/MVFR
cigs will settle in through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Serr
SHORT TERM...Serr
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Serr

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
332 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-270845-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
332 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 /232 AM MDT Thu Aug 26 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. The
first round will track from west to east across the region through
the morning and early afternoon hours. A second round of
thunderstorms will likely track northeast from south central South
Dakota later this afternoon and evening. Yet another, third round of
thunderstorms is possible overnight and into Friday morning. Strong
to severe storms are possible at any time. Hail, strong winds and
heavy rain are all threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The unsettled pattern persists through the weekend, with several
rounds of strong to severe storms possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Weather spotters are
encouraged to submit reports to the National Weather Service in
Aberdeen. The public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook
page, or our Twitter feed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
719 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

SDZ005-006-010-016-017-034-261245-
Brown SD-Sully SD-Potter SD-McPherson SD-Edmunds SD-Faulk SD-
719 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Edmunds, northeastern
Sully, west central Brown, Faulk, eastern Potter and southeastern
McPherson Counties through 745 AM CDT...

At 719 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Plainview Colony to near Stone Lake.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Plainview Colony around 725 AM CDT.
  Deerfield Colony around 730 AM CDT.
  Long Lake Colony and Cravens Corner around 735 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Wetonka, Mina
Lake Rec Area, Mina and Richmond Lake Rec Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4564 9850 4489 9919 4490 9967 4481 9968
      4491 9994 4568 9920
TIME...MOT...LOC 1219Z 289DEG 33KT 4559 9908 4493 9971

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
800 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 S BURKMERE            44.98N 99.30W
08/26/2021  M60 MPH          FAULK              SD   MESONET

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
805 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 W FAULKTON            45.03N 99.21W
08/26/2021  M57 MPH          FAULK              SD   MESONET

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

KF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
810 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 W ORIENT              44.90N 99.11W
08/26/2021  M75 MPH          FAULK              SD   MESONET

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

KF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
814 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST TOLSTOY                 45.20N 99.61W
08/26/2021  M57 MPH          POTTER             SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 56 TOLSTOY (SDDOT).

&&

KF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
823 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 AM     TSTM WND GST     TOLSTOY                 45.20N 99.61W
08/26/2021  M57 MPH          POTTER             SD   MESONET

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT
            FROM TOLSTOY. MESONET STATION 56 TOLSTOY
            (SDDOT).

&&

KF