Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Aberdeen, SD

902 
WWUS53 KABR 261433
SVSABR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
933 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

MNC011-155-SDC109-261500-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-210826T1500Z/
Traverse MN-Big Stone MN-Roberts SD-
933 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TRAVERSE...NORTHWESTERN BIG STONE AND CENTRAL
ROBERTS COUNTIES...

At 932 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Browns Valley,
or 10 miles southeast of Sisseton, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Beardsley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4551 9699 4566 9702 4576 9666 4561 9663
      4549 9661
TIME...MOT...LOC 1432Z 274DEG 25KT 4556 9688 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

TDK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
648 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

See the updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Main challenges in the short term will be the timing of various
shortwaves moving through southwest flow aloft -- and the ability of
this upper level forcing to produce strong to severe convection as
well as heavy rain over the next couple of days.

Disorganized and scattered warm air advection/elevated showers and
thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the northern CWA this
morning. Meanwhile another area of convection aligned with a more
distinct shortwave and the nose of a 30 KT LLJ is tracking into far
northwest South Dakota. CAMs don't entirely depict the ongoing
scenario, however a majority suggest the convection out west will be
able to maintain, increase in coverage and track across the CWA
between ~09-18Z. Steep mid level lapse rates, 1000-2000 J/KG of
MU CAPE and 50 KT of effective shear should be a sufficient
environment to support such a scenario. Hail is a threat, along
with strong winds. The big question will be if the storms can
persistently mix the strongest winds down to the surface. Lastly,
heavy rain will be a concern over the next couple of days. PWATs
are expected to top out over 1.5 inches this afternoon...topping
the scales for this time of the year.

Models suggest a break early this afternoon before another round of
convection develops later in the afternoon/evening tracking
northeast out of central South Dakota. And potentially a third round
of nocturnal convection into Friday morning. The threat for strong
to severe storms persists through the time period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Friday night into Saturday it appears we'll see a surface boundary
draped from the NE panhandle northeastward into southeast SD, and
into central MN. Aloft, shortwave energy will be digging into MT and
the western Dakotas. This will set the stage for shower and
thunderstorm potential through this time period. Chances look pretty
good given the upper level support and overall dynamics and
parameters. Could be dealing with strong to severe storms as well.
Models then agree fairly well in showing a brief lull in precip
chances Saturday night into Sunday as surface high pressure moves
across the area. After the high departs, it would appear we get into
a bit of an active pattern for a couple days as a few waves of
energy move across the northern plains. There is still quite a bit
of uncertainty regarding the timing and overall strength of these
waves, but it would seem the area will get into an unsettled pattern
again towards the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A couple of rounds of thunderstorms are possible today. A line of
storms is expected to impact the KABR and KATY TAF site before
18Z. Additional thunderstorms activity is possible later this
afternoon/evening over south central South Dakota, tracking
northeast into parts of east central South Dakota. Periods of
MVFR cigs and vsbys will be possible with any thunderstorms. IFR/MVFR
cigs will settle in through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Serr
SHORT TERM...Serr
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Serr

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
332 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-270845-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
332 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 /232 AM MDT Thu Aug 26 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible today and tonight. The
first round will track from west to east across the region through
the morning and early afternoon hours. A second round of
thunderstorms will likely track northeast from south central South
Dakota later this afternoon and evening. Yet another, third round of
thunderstorms is possible overnight and into Friday morning. Strong
to severe storms are possible at any time. Hail, strong winds and
heavy rain are all threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The unsettled pattern persists through the weekend, with several
rounds of strong to severe storms possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Weather spotters are
encouraged to submit reports to the National Weather Service in
Aberdeen. The public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook
page, or our Twitter feed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
810 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 W ORIENT              44.90N 99.11W
08/26/2021  M75 MPH          FAULK              SD   MESONET

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

KF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
814 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST TOLSTOY                 45.20N 99.61W
08/26/2021  M57 MPH          POTTER             SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 56 TOLSTOY (SDDOT).

&&

KF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
823 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 AM     TSTM WND GST     TOLSTOY                 45.20N 99.61W
08/26/2021  M57 MPH          POTTER             SD   MESONET

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT
            FROM TOLSTOY. MESONET STATION 56 TOLSTOY
            (SDDOT).

&&

KF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
830 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW MELLETTE          45.16N 98.51W
08/26/2021  M57 MPH          SPINK              SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 175 MELLETTE (SDDOT).

&&

KF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
843 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW MELLETTE          45.16N 98.51W
08/26/2021  M58 MPH          SPINK              SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 175 MELLETTE (SDDOT).

&&

KF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
907 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 AM     TSTM WND GST     LAKE CITY               45.72N 97.42W
08/26/2021  M53 MPH          MARSHALL           SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 2 LAKE CITY (SDDOT).

&&

SRF