Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Tulsa, OK

623 
WWUS54 KTSA 151937
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
237 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

OKC079-152015-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0196.000000T0000Z-200515T2015Z/
Le Flore OK-
237 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY...

At 236 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Panama, moving
northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations in or near the path include...
Poteau...                         Pocola...
Spiro...                          Panama...
Cameron...                        Shady Point...
Rock Island...                    Scullyville...

Numerous reports of wind damage have been received across northern 
LeFlore county.

LAT...LON 3508 9444 3509 9469 3525 9471 3529 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 243DEG 5KT 3516 9465 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Lacy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing storms will continue to impact terminals from western AR
through SE OK with an expected decrease in coverage from north to
south through the afternoon. Once storms clear terminals there is
low confidence that storms can spread back across the region later
tonight so no mention will made in the fcst at this time. Possible
lower ceilings and patchy fog tonight with an uptick in precip
coverage expected by late morning Saturday and beyond this fcst
valid time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1110 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Two primary boundaries being followed this morning. Initial
outflow from earlier morning storms has pushed near the Interstate
40 corridor in eastern OK with strong to severe storms continuing
to develop in vicinity. This boundary has slowed southward
progress over the past few hours and conditions will become
increasingly unstable to its east and south. Further north the
more substantial cold front has pushed to near Interstate 44 and
marks the northward extent of any stronger storm potential.
Between the two boundaries will remain a heavy rain potential and
more so across eastern OK nearer the generation zone of higher
rain rate cores. Through the afternoon the northern boundary will
continue southward and likely overtake the more southern boundary
with a continue chance of strong to severe storms. The corridor of
most unstable air is likely to remain just west and south of the
forecast area. Assuming the aforementioned boundary does continue
a southward advance the late afternoon and evening svr storms will
confined to far southern portions of the fcst area and points
further south and west. Updated forecast will adjust precip
expected precip trends with north to south advance. Also temps
lowered across northern areas and further cooling may be needed
in later updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  65  79  62 /  90  40  70  50
FSM   79  65  79  65 /  90  40  80  80
MLC   79  64  77  63 /  90  60  80  60
BVO   73  64  79  60 /  50  50  70  50
FYV   73  63  77  62 /  90  40  80  80
BYV   72  63  78  62 /  80  30  80  80
MKO   75  64  77  63 /  90  40  70  60
MIO   73  64  79  62 /  70  50  60  60
F10   77  64  77  63 /  90  50  70  50
HHW   81  66  77  65 /  90  80  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ049-053-
     066-068>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION.....07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1258 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1258 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...continuing through early evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...East central Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...improving by early evening.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread storms are ongoing from far northwest Arkansas
through southeast Oklahoma.  Strong to severe storms were
ongoing along the Interstate 40 corridor.  The potential
for severe storms will continue into the early evening
hours across southeast Oklahoma.  Locally damaging
winds will be the primary hazard.  A brief tornado
will also be possible as storms interact with the
advancing outflow boundary.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue into the day Saturday as an
upper low lifts into northeast Texas. A few of these storms could
briefly become severe with locally heavy rainfall. Lingering
showers and thunderstorms could continue Sunday across far southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas before shifting southeast of the
area by mid to late afternoon.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
124 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EUFAULA                 35.29N 95.58W
05/15/2020                   MCINTOSH           OK   STORM CHASER

            BURKS ROAD NEAR THE LOVES IN EUFAULA IS FLOODED. ADVISED
            TO AVOID.

&&

JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
125 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

OKZ074-076-151900-
Haskell OK-Le Flore OK-
125 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL AND
NORTHWESTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 125 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of Mc
Curtain, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Poteau...                         Spiro...
Panama...                         Keota...
Mccurtain...                      Bokoshe...
Mc Curtain...                     Shady Point...
Cowlington...                     Milton...

LAT...LON 3508 9499 3526 9498 3530 9468 3529 9466
      3529 9464 3503 9463
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 274DEG 15KT 3517 9490

Lacy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHECOTAH                35.47N 95.52W
05/15/2020                   MCINTOSH           OK   STORM CHASER

            REPORT OF A TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROADWAY IN CHECOTAH.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
136 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COWLINGTON              35.28N 94.73W
05/15/2020                   LE FLORE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGHWAY 59 NEAR COWLINGTON FLOODED.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
145 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MCALESTER               34.93N 95.77W
05/15/2020                   PITTSBURG          OK   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF STREET FLOODING IN AND AROUND MCALESTER.

&&

JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
219 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

ARZ029-OKZ076-151945-
Sebastian AR-Le Flore OK-
219 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN AND EAST
CENTRAL LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 219 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles northeast of Poteau to 3 miles east of Howe to
6 miles southwest of Heavener. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Poteau...                         Heavener...
Howe...                           Hartford...
Midland...                        Heavener Runestone State Park...
Patterson...                      Hodgen...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Arkansas...and southeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3495 9430 3496 9433 3495 9435 3496 9437
      3494 9439 3495 9441 3493 9443 3493 9445
      3475 9446 3478 9482 3495 9468 3509 9469
      3512 9433 3497 9429
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 263DEG 23KT 3510 9460 3497 9457 3483 9469

Lacy