Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2020

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 15, 2020McIntosh County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 15, 2020, 10:51 AM CDT for McIntosh County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2020, 10:51 AM CDT (15:51 UTC)
Expired: May 15, 2020, 11:30 AM CDT
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County McIntosh County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 158 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1862 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -241 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 909 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 292 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 249 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 15, 6:33 AM CDT, 4 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 15, 6:33 AM CDT, 4 hours 18 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
633 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Flying conditions vary greatly across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas as a thunderstorm complex moves
across northeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning.
Flying conditions will continue to cover a wide range
through the valid period as the thunderstorm potential
continues.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 305 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Line of strong to severe thunderstorms, currently over southeast
Kansas, will continue to push south this morning into portions of
northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas.  Main threat will be damaging
winds in the stronger bow segments, but a few storms could also
produce marginally severe hail. In addition, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible through the morning hours and will therefore keep
current flash flood watch. Still some uncertainty how far south
convective line/outflow pushes before stalling this afternoon, however
boundary could serve as a focus for additional redevelopment by
late afternoon/early evening.

Models remain fairly consistent with developing/lifting upper low
into northeast Texas during the day Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms
will likely persist across southeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas on northern periphery of upper low. With the slow storm
motions expected, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

Lingering precip chances will continue across far southeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas on Sunday before upper low begins to shift
east with cold front sweeping through the region on backside of
system. Cool/dry weather expected through the early to middle part
of next week as high pressure ridge at the surface settles over
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Slow warming trend
expected for the latter half of the work week. For now, kept rain
chances out of the forecast for the remainder of the extended
periods, staying close to NBM guidance.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ054>063.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ001-002.

&&

AVIATION.....10

Hazardous weather outlook, May 15, 7:58 AM CDT, 2 hours 53 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
758 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
758 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...spreading southward through the day.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Primarily northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and storms are ongoing across northeast Oklahoma
with more scattered showers and storms across northwest Arkansas.
The heaviest rainfall has occurred near the Oklahoma Kansas border
and this area will remain prone to additional flooding through the
morning. Storms will continue to develop and spread into northeast
Oklahoma this morning, with additional development further south
across southeast Oklahoma later today into the evening.  Areas
of strong outflow winds and isolated large hail potential will
be the focus for severe weather potential through the day.
The risk of severe weather and flooding is likely to diminish
by mid evening with storms more focused further south and west
across southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue into the day Saturday as an
upper low lifts into northeast Texas. A few of these storms could
briefly become severe with locally heavy rainfall. Lingering
showers and thunderstorms could continue Sunday across far southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas before shifting southeast of the
area by mid to late afternoon.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 15, 10:26 AM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1026 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE WAINWRIGHT         35.65N 95.51W
05/15/2020                   MUSKOGEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF TREES DAMAGED, ALSO STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO A BARN
            AND ROOF DAMAGE.

&&

JDS

Special weather statement, May 15, 10:32 AM CDT, 19 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1032 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

OKZ070-071-151600-
Muskogee OK-McIntosh OK-
1032 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH AND CENTRAL
MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM CDT...

At 1032 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southwest
of Council Hill, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Checotah...                       Oktaha...
Council Hill...                   Rentiesville...
Stidham...                        Lake Eufaula State Park...
Hitchita...                       Pierce...
Onapa...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 247 and
274.

LAT...LON 3555 9582 3555 9572 3557 9571 3559 9535
      3533 9534 3538 9583
TIME...MOT...LOC 1532Z 271DEG 29KT 3549 9571

Lacy

Local storm report, May 15, 10:37 AM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1037 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 S WEBBERS FALLS       35.50N 95.13W
05/15/2020  M59 MPH          MUSKOGEE           OK   MESONET

&&

JDS

Special weather statement, May 15, 10:43 AM CDT, 8 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1043 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

OKZ060-067-151615-
Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
1043 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL WAGONER AND
SOUTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

At 1043 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Jenks, moving
east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Bixby...                          Jenks...
Glenpool...                       Coweta...
Stonebluff...                     Jenks Riverside Airport...
Leonard...

LAT...LON 3606 9603 3609 9573 3587 9573 3592 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 1543Z 271DEG 11KT 3601 9597

Lacy

Special weather statement, May 15, 10:45 AM CDT, 6 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1045 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

OKZ066-067-070-151615-
Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Wagoner OK-
1045 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WAGONER...
NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE AND NORTHEASTERN OKMULGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115
AM CDT...

At 1045 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bald Hill,
moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okmulgee...                       Haskell...
Morris...                         Boynton...
Bald Hill...                      Jamesville...
Eram...                           Choska...

LAT...LON 3563 9596 3581 9596 3584 9558 3557 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 1545Z 271DEG 11KT 3572 9588

Lacy

Local storm report, May 15, 10:46 AM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1046 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW KEEFETON          35.61N 95.36W
05/15/2020                   MUSKOGEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS DOWN ALONG ELM GROVE
            ROAD NORTH OF KEEFTON AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 64.

&&

JDS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 3:16 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Ottawa	59 min
May 15, 3:23 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata	67 min
May 15, 3:59 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Ottawa	46 min
May 15, 4:49 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Nowata, Ottawa, Washington	41 min
May 15, 5:03 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Mayes, Rogers	42 min
May 15, 5:34 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata	26 min
May 15, 5:41 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Washington	4 hr
May 15, 5:44 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Mayes	46 min
May 15, 6:08 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	37 min
May 15, 6:16 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	44 min
May 15, 7:00 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	30 min
May 15, 7:02 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Wagoner	28 min
May 15, 7:04 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	3 hr
May 15, 7:08 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Nowata, Washington	37 min
May 15, 8:11 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Wagoner	34 min
May 15, 8:23 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	52 min
May 15, 8:53 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Muskogee	37 min
May 15, 9:05 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Cherokee, Muskogee, Wagoner	3 hr
May 15, 9:10 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig	35 min
May 15, 9:11 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Muskogee	34 min
May 15, 9:16 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Craig, Nowata	4 hr
May 15, 9:24 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Rogers, Wagoner	3 hr
May 15, 9:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Muskogee, Sequoyah	48 min
May 15, 9:37 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Muskogee, Wagoner	3 hr
May 15, 9:40 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Wagoner	35 min
May 15, 9:55 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Washington	3 hr
May 15, 10:04 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	McIntosh	26 min
May 15, 10:10 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Muskogee	50 min
May 15, 10:13 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	32 min
May 15, 10:26 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Sequoyah	49 min
May 15, 10:30 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	McIntosh, Muskogee	3 hr
May 15, 10:32 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	McIntosh	28 min
May 15, 10:34 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Tulsa	3 hr
May 15, 10:40 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, Muskogee, Sequoyah	50 min
May 15, 10:43 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	32 min
May 15, 10:45 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okmulgee	30 min
May 15, 11:02 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Muskogee, Okmulgee	4 hr
May 15, 11:07 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Cherokee, Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Rogers, Wagoner	3 hr
May 15, 11:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, LeFlore, Sequoyah	48 min
May 15, 11:45 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Okfuskee	3 hr
May 15, 12:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	McIntosh	28 min
May 15, 12:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore, Sequoyah	38 min
May 15, 12:12 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell	33 min
May 15, 12:23 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Haskell, Sequoyah	3 hr
May 15, 12:36 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell, Pittsburg	39 min
May 15, 12:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sequoyah	31 min
May 15, 12:52 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	TSA	Mayes, Muskogee, Rogers, Wagoner	9 hr
May 15, 1:01 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	TSA	Craig, Nowata	9 hr
May 15, 1:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore, Sequoyah	40 min
May 15, 1:12 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Haskell, LeFlore, Sequoyah	4 hr
May 15, 1:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Latimer	26 min
May 15, 1:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell	35 min
May 15, 1:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore, Sequoyah	50 min
May 15, 1:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, LeFlore	47 min
May 15, 1:52 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Latimer, LeFlore, Pittsburg	4 hr
May 15, 2:11 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Nowata	62 hr
May 15, 2:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	LeFlore	26 min
May 15, 2:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore	53 min
May 15, 2:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore	41 min
May 15, 2:55 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Muskogee, Okmulgee	9 hr
May 15, 3:08 PM CDT	River Flood Advisory	TSA	Cherokee	6 hr
May 15, 3:11 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	TSA	Haskell, Sequoyah	9 hr
May 15, 3:30 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	LeFlore, Pushmataha	2 hr
May 15, 4:40 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Choctaw	2 hr
May 15, 5:12 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	TSA	Haskell, LeFlore, Sequoyah	9 hr
May 15, 5:40 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	TSA	Latimer, LeFlore, Pittsburg	9 hr
May 15, 2:40 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Madison, Washington	2 hr
May 15, 3:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Sebastian	39 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2020 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.