Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing storms will continue to impact terminals from western AR
through SE OK with an expected decrease in coverage from north to
south through the afternoon. Once storms clear terminals there is
low confidence that storms can spread back across the region later
tonight so no mention will made in the fcst at this time. Possible
lower ceilings and patchy fog tonight with an uptick in precip
coverage expected by late morning Saturday and beyond this fcst
valid time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1110 AM CDT Fri May 15 2020/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Two primary boundaries being followed this morning. Initial
outflow from earlier morning storms has pushed near the Interstate
40 corridor in eastern OK with strong to severe storms continuing
to develop in vicinity. This boundary has slowed southward
progress over the past few hours and conditions will become
increasingly unstable to its east and south. Further north the
more substantial cold front has pushed to near Interstate 44 and
marks the northward extent of any stronger storm potential.
Between the two boundaries will remain a heavy rain potential and
more so across eastern OK nearer the generation zone of higher
rain rate cores. Through the afternoon the northern boundary will
continue southward and likely overtake the more southern boundary
with a continue chance of strong to severe storms. The corridor of
most unstable air is likely to remain just west and south of the
forecast area. Assuming the aforementioned boundary does continue
a southward advance the late afternoon and evening svr storms will
confined to far southern portions of the fcst area and points
further south and west. Updated forecast will adjust precip
expected precip trends with north to south advance. Also temps
lowered across northern areas and further cooling may be needed
in later updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  65  79  62 /  90  40  70  50
FSM   79  65  79  65 /  90  40  80  80
MLC   79  64  77  63 /  90  60  80  60
BVO   73  64  79  60 /  50  50  70  50
FYV   73  63  77  62 /  90  40  80  80
BYV   72  63  78  62 /  80  30  80  80
MKO   75  64  77  63 /  90  40  70  60
MIO   73  64  79  62 /  70  50  60  60
F10   77  64  77  63 /  90  50  70  50
HHW   81  66  77  65 /  90  80  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ049-053-
     066-068>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION.....07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1258 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1258 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...continuing through early evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...East central Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...improving by early evening.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread storms are ongoing from far northwest Arkansas
through southeast Oklahoma.  Strong to severe storms were
ongoing along the Interstate 40 corridor.  The potential
for severe storms will continue into the early evening
hours across southeast Oklahoma.  Locally damaging
winds will be the primary hazard.  A brief tornado
will also be possible as storms interact with the
advancing outflow boundary.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue into the day Saturday as an
upper low lifts into northeast Texas. A few of these storms could
briefly become severe with locally heavy rainfall. Lingering
showers and thunderstorms could continue Sunday across far southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas before shifting southeast of the
area by mid to late afternoon.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
119 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

OKZ073-075-151845-
Pittsburg OK-Latimer OK-
119 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LATIMER AND EAST
CENTRAL PITTSBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 119 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hartshorne,
moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wilburton...                      Hartshorne...
Alderson...                       Higgins...
Damon...                          Robbers Cave State Park...
Haileyville...                    Gowen...
Dow...                            Bache...

LAT...LON 3493 9570 3506 9533 3506 9526 3482 9518
      3476 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 254DEG 25KT 3487 9559

Lacy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
124 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     FLASH FLOOD      EUFAULA                 35.29N 95.58W
05/15/2020                   MCINTOSH           OK   STORM CHASER

            BURKS ROAD NEAR THE LOVES IN EUFAULA IS FLOODED. ADVISED
            TO AVOID.

&&

JDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
125 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

OKZ074-076-151900-
Haskell OK-Le Flore OK-
125 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL AND
NORTHWESTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 125 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of Mc
Curtain, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Poteau...                         Spiro...
Panama...                         Keota...
Mccurtain...                      Bokoshe...
Mc Curtain...                     Shady Point...
Cowlington...                     Milton...

LAT...LON 3508 9499 3526 9498 3530 9468 3529 9466
      3529 9464 3503 9463
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 274DEG 15KT 3517 9490

Lacy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0103 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHECOTAH                35.47N 95.52W
05/15/2020                   MCINTOSH           OK   STORM CHASER

            REPORT OF A TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROADWAY IN CHECOTAH.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
136 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COWLINGTON              35.28N 94.73W
05/15/2020                   LE FLORE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGHWAY 59 NEAR COWLINGTON FLOODED.

&&

JDS