Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
530 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

08Z water vapor and profiler data showed a subtle shortwave over
northeast CO. Surface obs indicated a warm front was extending
east across southern KS from a surface low in over southeast CO.
925MB and 850MB profilers showed southerly flow up and over this
warm front. Meanwhile the 00Z RAOBs from TOP and OUN indicated
steep mid level lapse rates from 7 to 8 C/km.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

The focus for today is the potential for significant severe
weather unfolding later this morning. All of the model guidance
shows precip developing over north central and northeast KS and
becoming widespread by 15Z. Forecast soundings from the
HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS show elevated CAPE values from 1500 J/KG across
northern KS to as much as 3000 J/KG across central KS thanks to
700-500MB lapse rates between 7 and 8 C/km. Additionally effective
bulk shear is progged to be around 50KT as a mid level speed max
noses into the central plains from the west. So the environment
looks to be primed for elevated supercell thunderstorms with the
potential for very large hail. Consensus among the models is for
the surface low in southeast CO to move east along the KS/OK state
line with the frontal boundary remaining south of the forecast
area for the most part. Continued moisture advection from a 40KT
low level jet up and over this boundary is expected to support the
instability progged by the forecast soundings. And with an
effective hodograph that is generally straight, supercell storms
with possible splits seem probable. Storms across northwestern KS
and southeastern NEB have shown a tendency to remain discrete so
far. So the biggest question is once storms develop, how with they
evolve? The last several runs of the HRRR have shown a tendency
for discrete storms into the afternoon while the ARW/NMM/NAM Nest
suggests some potential for bowing segments. Given storms should
be elevated and propagate generally perpendicular to the low level
jet, think the HRRR may be a better solution since there seems to
be a lack of strong linear forcing. Given the shear and
instability expected to unfold late this morning, I think hail up
to and maybe a little bigger than 2 inches in diameter is within
the envelope of possibilities. Damaging winds gusts would be a
little more conditional given the elevated nature of the storms,
but some of the forecast soundings do show downdraft CAPE values
approaching 1000 J/kg. So it is not out of the question to see
damaging wind gusts from the more intense updrafts. Have increased
POPs given the good model consensus and included a mention of
severe storms in the forecast. Highs today are not expected to get
out of the 60s given the cloud cover and precip anticipated.

Showers and thunderstorms should move east of the area late this
afternoon and this evening as the shortwave progresses east and high
pressure builds in with dry air advecting in from the northwest.
There is some indication from the models for light QPF to linger
across northeast KS through the evening as the main wave slowly
moves across eastern NEB. So have some chance POPs over northeast KS
through the evening. Lows tonight should fall into the 40s. A decent
pressure gradient and a slow scattering out of the stratus is
expected to keep temps from dropping below the mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

High pressure is progged to be the main surface feature over the
central plains for the coming days. A series of cold fronts are
expected to move through the area as the synoptic pattern
amplifies and flow over the Great Plains becomes more meridional.
This should keep temps at or below normal through next weekend
with periodic chances for precip. The coolest temps continue to
set up for Saturday morning with the central of a surface ridge
progged to be over northeast KS around sunrise. Have lows in the
upper 30s to around 40. The most obvious chance for precip looks
to be Thursday night as a more amplified shortwave digs southeast
within northwest flow aloft. Have continued with chance POPs for
Thursday and Thursday night. There continues to be indications of
a weak shortwave clipping northeast KS Tuesday night. The NAM and
GFS hint at enough mid level moisture for some light QPF. But the
ECMWF fails to saturate mid levels enough to generate any precip.
So have kept POPs around 10 percent for now. Another wave is
possible Saturday night or Sunday. Although there are still big
differences in the strength and track of the wave between the
ECMWF and GFS. So confidence in the forecast it marginal for
including a POP at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

With the short term guidance in good agreement, the forecast is
based largely on the consensus with the main focus on timing the
restricted conditions. Will use the CAMs to show the most likely
timing for the strongest convection. The biggest uncertainty is
how long the lower stratus may hang on tonight with the RAP
scattering things out a little slower. There may also be a LLWS
risk overnight tonight. Will let later shifts focus more on this
potential.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
341 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-050845-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
341 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over central KS between 5
and 7 am this morning and spread east across the entire area
through the morning. Severe thunderstorms are possible with large
hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds gusts the
likely hazards. Severe weather is possible over the entire area,
but areas along and south of a line from Concordia to Holton are
most likely to see severe thunderstorms. The stronger
thunderstorms should move east of the area by mid afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter are encouraged to make severe weather reports to the
National Weather Service in Topeka.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Wolters

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
901 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 AM     HAIL             WAVERLY                 38.39N 95.60W
05/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       COFFEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
906 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 AM     HAIL             LEBO                    38.42N 95.85W
05/04/2020  E2.50 INCH       COFFEY             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PALM SIZED HAIL IN LEBO.

&&

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
907 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 AM     HAIL             WILLIAMSBURG            38.48N 95.46W
05/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
909 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE NEW STRAWN        38.30N 95.73W
05/04/2020  M75 MPH          COFFEY             KS   AWOS

            FROM KUKL. REPORTED ON 20-MINUTE 855 AM
            OBSERVATION. EXACT TIME BASED ON RADAR DATA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
911 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 SSE SILVER LAKE       39.02N 95.81W
05/04/2020  E65 MPH          SHAWNEE            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            60-70 MPH WINDS.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
913 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ035>037-041445-
Geary-Dickinson-Morris-
913 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DICKINSON...SOUTHWESTERN
GEARY AND NORTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

At 913 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southeast of Carlton, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Herington, Hope, Woodbine, Carlton and Latimer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
central and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3893 9691 3870 9668 3861 9697 3861 9732
      3867 9737 3870 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 1413Z 245DEG 44KT 3864 9721

Skow