Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Topeka, KS

790 
WWUS53 KTOP 041459
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
959 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSC149-041530-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-200504T1530Z/
Pottawatomie-
959 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY...

At 959 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Louisville,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
Louisville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing 
widespread wind damage. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure 
and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3941 9615 3927 9605 3921 9643 3926 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 1459Z 244DEG 40KT 3926 9626 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

Skow

056 
WWUS53 KTOP 041511
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1011 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSC149-041520-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-200504T1530Z/
Pottawatomie-
1011 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3941 9615 3927 9605 3921 9643 3926 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 1508Z 244DEG 40KT 3932 9611 

$$

Skow

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
530 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

08Z water vapor and profiler data showed a subtle shortwave over
northeast CO. Surface obs indicated a warm front was extending
east across southern KS from a surface low in over southeast CO.
925MB and 850MB profilers showed southerly flow up and over this
warm front. Meanwhile the 00Z RAOBs from TOP and OUN indicated
steep mid level lapse rates from 7 to 8 C/km.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

The focus for today is the potential for significant severe
weather unfolding later this morning. All of the model guidance
shows precip developing over north central and northeast KS and
becoming widespread by 15Z. Forecast soundings from the
HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS show elevated CAPE values from 1500 J/KG across
northern KS to as much as 3000 J/KG across central KS thanks to
700-500MB lapse rates between 7 and 8 C/km. Additionally effective
bulk shear is progged to be around 50KT as a mid level speed max
noses into the central plains from the west. So the environment
looks to be primed for elevated supercell thunderstorms with the
potential for very large hail. Consensus among the models is for
the surface low in southeast CO to move east along the KS/OK state
line with the frontal boundary remaining south of the forecast
area for the most part. Continued moisture advection from a 40KT
low level jet up and over this boundary is expected to support the
instability progged by the forecast soundings. And with an
effective hodograph that is generally straight, supercell storms
with possible splits seem probable. Storms across northwestern KS
and southeastern NEB have shown a tendency to remain discrete so
far. So the biggest question is once storms develop, how with they
evolve? The last several runs of the HRRR have shown a tendency
for discrete storms into the afternoon while the ARW/NMM/NAM Nest
suggests some potential for bowing segments. Given storms should
be elevated and propagate generally perpendicular to the low level
jet, think the HRRR may be a better solution since there seems to
be a lack of strong linear forcing. Given the shear and
instability expected to unfold late this morning, I think hail up
to and maybe a little bigger than 2 inches in diameter is within
the envelope of possibilities. Damaging winds gusts would be a
little more conditional given the elevated nature of the storms,
but some of the forecast soundings do show downdraft CAPE values
approaching 1000 J/kg. So it is not out of the question to see
damaging wind gusts from the more intense updrafts. Have increased
POPs given the good model consensus and included a mention of
severe storms in the forecast. Highs today are not expected to get
out of the 60s given the cloud cover and precip anticipated.

Showers and thunderstorms should move east of the area late this
afternoon and this evening as the shortwave progresses east and high
pressure builds in with dry air advecting in from the northwest.
There is some indication from the models for light QPF to linger
across northeast KS through the evening as the main wave slowly
moves across eastern NEB. So have some chance POPs over northeast KS
through the evening. Lows tonight should fall into the 40s. A decent
pressure gradient and a slow scattering out of the stratus is
expected to keep temps from dropping below the mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

High pressure is progged to be the main surface feature over the
central plains for the coming days. A series of cold fronts are
expected to move through the area as the synoptic pattern
amplifies and flow over the Great Plains becomes more meridional.
This should keep temps at or below normal through next weekend
with periodic chances for precip. The coolest temps continue to
set up for Saturday morning with the central of a surface ridge
progged to be over northeast KS around sunrise. Have lows in the
upper 30s to around 40. The most obvious chance for precip looks
to be Thursday night as a more amplified shortwave digs southeast
within northwest flow aloft. Have continued with chance POPs for
Thursday and Thursday night. There continues to be indications of
a weak shortwave clipping northeast KS Tuesday night. The NAM and
GFS hint at enough mid level moisture for some light QPF. But the
ECMWF fails to saturate mid levels enough to generate any precip.
So have kept POPs around 10 percent for now. Another wave is
possible Saturday night or Sunday. Although there are still big
differences in the strength and track of the wave between the
ECMWF and GFS. So confidence in the forecast it marginal for
including a POP at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

With the short term guidance in good agreement, the forecast is
based largely on the consensus with the main focus on timing the
restricted conditions. Will use the CAMs to show the most likely
timing for the strongest convection. The biggest uncertainty is
how long the lower stratus may hang on tonight with the RAP
scattering things out a little slower. There may also be a LLWS
risk overnight tonight. Will let later shifts focus more on this
potential.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
341 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-050845-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
341 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over central KS between 5
and 7 am this morning and spread east across the entire area
through the morning. Severe thunderstorms are possible with large
hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds gusts the
likely hazards. Severe weather is possible over the entire area,
but areas along and south of a line from Concordia to Holton are
most likely to see severe thunderstorms. The stronger
thunderstorms should move east of the area by mid afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter are encouraged to make severe weather reports to the
National Weather Service in Topeka.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Wolters

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
931 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     HAIL             3 E RICHMOND            38.40N 95.19W
05/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
932 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     TSTM WND GST     8 ESE GRANDVIEW PLAZA   38.99N 96.66W
05/04/2020  E70 MPH          GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN, ESTIMATED ABOUT 30
            SECONDS OF 70 MPH WINDS.

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
934 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 AM     HAIL             1 NE GREELEY            38.38N 95.12W
05/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       ANDERSON           KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
936 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW GRANDVIEW PLAZA   39.01N 96.80W
05/04/2020  E80 MPH          GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 80 MPH OUTFLOW WIND, LOTS OF TREES
            DOWN.

&&

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
937 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HAIL             1 S RICHMOND            38.38N 95.25W
05/04/2020  E1.75 INCH       ANDERSON           KS   PUBLIC

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
939 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW GRANDVIEW PLAZA   39.01N 96.80W
05/04/2020  E80 MPH          GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM 2
            SSW GRANDVIEW PLAZA. ESTIMATED 80 MPH
            OUTFLOW WIND, LOTS OF TREES DOWN.

&&

DR