Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Topeka, KS

067 
WWUS53 KTOP 041540
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1040 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSC031-111-139-041615-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-200504T1615Z/
Osage-Coffey-Lyon-
1040 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN OSAGE...NORTHERN COFFEY AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES...

At 1039 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Neosho Rapids,
moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia, Lebo, Waverly, Olpe, New Strawn, Hartford, Neosho Rapids,
Beto Junction and John Redmond Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3825 9628 3848 9626 3846 9551 3826 9551
      3826 9552 3820 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1539Z 268DEG 44KT 3839 9601 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Skow

817 
WWUS53 KTOP 041551
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1051 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSC031-111-139-041615-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-200504T1615Z/
Osage-Coffey-Lyon-
1051 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN OSAGE...NORTHERN COFFEY AND SOUTHEASTERN LYON
COUNTIES...

At 1051 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Beto Junction,
moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Lebo, Waverly, New Strawn, Hartford, Neosho Rapids, Beto Junction and
John Redmond Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3824 9608 3847 9602 3846 9551 3826 9551
      3826 9552 3820 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1551Z 279DEG 43KT 3839 9578 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Skow

668 
WWUS53 KTOP 041601
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1101 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSC111-041611-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-200504T1615Z/
Lyon-
1101 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LYON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3823 9594 3846 9591 3846 9551 3826 9551
      3826 9552 3820 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1601Z 306DEG 41KT 3832 9565 

$$

KSC031-139-041615-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-200504T1615Z/
Osage-Coffey-
1101 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND NORTHERN COFFEY COUNTIES...

At 1101 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest
of Waverly, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Lebo, Waverly, New Strawn, Beto Junction and John Redmond Reservoir. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3823 9594 3846 9591 3846 9551 3826 9551
      3826 9552 3820 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1601Z 306DEG 41KT 3832 9565 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Skow

471 
WWUS53 KTOP 041609
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1109 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSC031-139-041615-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-200504T1615Z/
Osage-Coffey-
1109 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND NORTHERN COFFEY COUNTIES...

At 1108 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles west of
Harris, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Waverly, New Strawn and John Redmond Reservoir. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3824 9594 3846 9567 3846 9551 3826 9551
      3826 9552 3820 9552 3824 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 1608Z 268DEG 42KT 3832 9553 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Skow

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
530 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

08Z water vapor and profiler data showed a subtle shortwave over
northeast CO. Surface obs indicated a warm front was extending
east across southern KS from a surface low in over southeast CO.
925MB and 850MB profilers showed southerly flow up and over this
warm front. Meanwhile the 00Z RAOBs from TOP and OUN indicated
steep mid level lapse rates from 7 to 8 C/km.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

The focus for today is the potential for significant severe
weather unfolding later this morning. All of the model guidance
shows precip developing over north central and northeast KS and
becoming widespread by 15Z. Forecast soundings from the
HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS show elevated CAPE values from 1500 J/KG across
northern KS to as much as 3000 J/KG across central KS thanks to
700-500MB lapse rates between 7 and 8 C/km. Additionally effective
bulk shear is progged to be around 50KT as a mid level speed max
noses into the central plains from the west. So the environment
looks to be primed for elevated supercell thunderstorms with the
potential for very large hail. Consensus among the models is for
the surface low in southeast CO to move east along the KS/OK state
line with the frontal boundary remaining south of the forecast
area for the most part. Continued moisture advection from a 40KT
low level jet up and over this boundary is expected to support the
instability progged by the forecast soundings. And with an
effective hodograph that is generally straight, supercell storms
with possible splits seem probable. Storms across northwestern KS
and southeastern NEB have shown a tendency to remain discrete so
far. So the biggest question is once storms develop, how with they
evolve? The last several runs of the HRRR have shown a tendency
for discrete storms into the afternoon while the ARW/NMM/NAM Nest
suggests some potential for bowing segments. Given storms should
be elevated and propagate generally perpendicular to the low level
jet, think the HRRR may be a better solution since there seems to
be a lack of strong linear forcing. Given the shear and
instability expected to unfold late this morning, I think hail up
to and maybe a little bigger than 2 inches in diameter is within
the envelope of possibilities. Damaging winds gusts would be a
little more conditional given the elevated nature of the storms,
but some of the forecast soundings do show downdraft CAPE values
approaching 1000 J/kg. So it is not out of the question to see
damaging wind gusts from the more intense updrafts. Have increased
POPs given the good model consensus and included a mention of
severe storms in the forecast. Highs today are not expected to get
out of the 60s given the cloud cover and precip anticipated.

Showers and thunderstorms should move east of the area late this
afternoon and this evening as the shortwave progresses east and high
pressure builds in with dry air advecting in from the northwest.
There is some indication from the models for light QPF to linger
across northeast KS through the evening as the main wave slowly
moves across eastern NEB. So have some chance POPs over northeast KS
through the evening. Lows tonight should fall into the 40s. A decent
pressure gradient and a slow scattering out of the stratus is
expected to keep temps from dropping below the mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

High pressure is progged to be the main surface feature over the
central plains for the coming days. A series of cold fronts are
expected to move through the area as the synoptic pattern
amplifies and flow over the Great Plains becomes more meridional.
This should keep temps at or below normal through next weekend
with periodic chances for precip. The coolest temps continue to
set up for Saturday morning with the central of a surface ridge
progged to be over northeast KS around sunrise. Have lows in the
upper 30s to around 40. The most obvious chance for precip looks
to be Thursday night as a more amplified shortwave digs southeast
within northwest flow aloft. Have continued with chance POPs for
Thursday and Thursday night. There continues to be indications of
a weak shortwave clipping northeast KS Tuesday night. The NAM and
GFS hint at enough mid level moisture for some light QPF. But the
ECMWF fails to saturate mid levels enough to generate any precip.
So have kept POPs around 10 percent for now. Another wave is
possible Saturday night or Sunday. Although there are still big
differences in the strength and track of the wave between the
ECMWF and GFS. So confidence in the forecast it marginal for
including a POP at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

With the short term guidance in good agreement, the forecast is
based largely on the consensus with the main focus on timing the
restricted conditions. Will use the CAMs to show the most likely
timing for the strongest convection. The biggest uncertainty is
how long the lower stratus may hang on tonight with the RAP
scattering things out a little slower. There may also be a LLWS
risk overnight tonight. Will let later shifts focus more on this
potential.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
341 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-050845-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
341 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over central KS between 5
and 7 am this morning and spread east across the entire area
through the morning. Severe thunderstorms are possible with large
hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds gusts the
likely hazards. Severe weather is possible over the entire area,
but areas along and south of a line from Concordia to Holton are
most likely to see severe thunderstorms. The stronger
thunderstorms should move east of the area by mid afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter are encouraged to make severe weather reports to the
National Weather Service in Topeka.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Wolters

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
937 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HAIL             1 S RICHMOND            38.38N 95.25W
05/04/2020  E1.75 INCH       ANDERSON           KS   PUBLIC

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
939 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW GRANDVIEW PLAZA   39.01N 96.80W
05/04/2020  E80 MPH          GEARY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM 2
            SSW GRANDVIEW PLAZA. ESTIMATED 80 MPH
            OUTFLOW WIND, LOTS OF TREES DOWN.

&&

DR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
951 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ021>023-036-041515-
Geary-Clay-Pottawatomie-Riley-
951 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GEARY...SOUTHERN
RILEY...SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES
UNTIL 1015 AM CDT...

At 951 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wakefield, moving east at 50 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Wakefield, Riley, Milford, Leonardville, Olsburg,
Randolph, Keats and Tuttle Creek Lake.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
north central, northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3915 9715 3933 9718 3948 9659 3917 9647
TIME...MOT...LOC 1451Z 263DEG 43KT 3925 9707

Skow

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1006 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNE LAWRENCE          39.01N 95.22W
05/04/2020  M61 MPH          DOUGLAS            KS   AWOS

            KLWC.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1008 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 ESE PAXICO            39.06N 96.10W
05/04/2020  E70 MPH          WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MANY TREE LIMBS DOWN IN YARD. BIGGEST IS 4
            TO 5 INCHES IN DIAMETER. ESTIMATED 70 MPH
            GUSTS.

&&

ST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1009 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNE WOODBINE          38.84N 96.93W
05/04/2020  M78 MPH          DICKINSON          KS   PUBLIC

            1.5 MILE SW OF ROCK SPRINGS RANCH. SOME
            BUILDING DAMAGE. 78MPH GUST MEASURED BY
            DAVIS WEATHER STATION.

&&

DR