Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Topeka, KS

364 
WWUS53 KTOP 041317
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
817 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSC031-111-139-041345-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-200504T1345Z/
Osage-Coffey-Lyon-
817 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN OSAGE...NORTHERN COFFEY AND NORTHEASTERN LYON
COUNTIES...

At 815 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles west of Reading to 6 miles south of Waverly,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Public. At 808 AM CDT, the public reported hail up to the 
         size of quarters on the east side of Emporia. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia, Osage City, Lyndon, Lebo, Waverly, Quenemo, Melvern,
Hartford, Neosho Rapids, Reading, Olivet, Beto Junction and Melvern
Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3837 9620 3850 9622 3871 9591 3858 9551
      3834 9551 3828 9561 3827 9597 3831 9606
TIME...MOT...LOC 1315Z 244DEG 34KT 3853 9605 3830 9557 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

296 
WWUS53 KTOP 041328 RRA
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
828 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSC031-111-139-041345-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-200504T1345Z/
Osage-Coffey-Lyon-
828 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN OSAGE...NORTHERN COFFEY AND NORTHEASTERN LYON
COUNTIES...

At 827 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 5 miles southwest of Reading to 3 miles northeast of
Waverly, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. At 823 AM CDT, spotters reported 
         hail up to the size of quarters in Waverly. Quarter sized 
         hail was also reported in Lebo. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia, Osage City, Lyndon, Lebo, Waverly, Quenemo, Melvern,
Hartford, Neosho Rapids, Reading, Olivet, Beto Junction and Melvern
Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3837 9620 3850 9622 3871 9591 3858 9551
      3834 9551 3828 9561 3827 9597 3831 9606
TIME...MOT...LOC 1327Z 241DEG 26KT 3845 9602 3842 9555 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
530 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

08Z water vapor and profiler data showed a subtle shortwave over
northeast CO. Surface obs indicated a warm front was extending
east across southern KS from a surface low in over southeast CO.
925MB and 850MB profilers showed southerly flow up and over this
warm front. Meanwhile the 00Z RAOBs from TOP and OUN indicated
steep mid level lapse rates from 7 to 8 C/km.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

The focus for today is the potential for significant severe
weather unfolding later this morning. All of the model guidance
shows precip developing over north central and northeast KS and
becoming widespread by 15Z. Forecast soundings from the
HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS show elevated CAPE values from 1500 J/KG across
northern KS to as much as 3000 J/KG across central KS thanks to
700-500MB lapse rates between 7 and 8 C/km. Additionally effective
bulk shear is progged to be around 50KT as a mid level speed max
noses into the central plains from the west. So the environment
looks to be primed for elevated supercell thunderstorms with the
potential for very large hail. Consensus among the models is for
the surface low in southeast CO to move east along the KS/OK state
line with the frontal boundary remaining south of the forecast
area for the most part. Continued moisture advection from a 40KT
low level jet up and over this boundary is expected to support the
instability progged by the forecast soundings. And with an
effective hodograph that is generally straight, supercell storms
with possible splits seem probable. Storms across northwestern KS
and southeastern NEB have shown a tendency to remain discrete so
far. So the biggest question is once storms develop, how with they
evolve? The last several runs of the HRRR have shown a tendency
for discrete storms into the afternoon while the ARW/NMM/NAM Nest
suggests some potential for bowing segments. Given storms should
be elevated and propagate generally perpendicular to the low level
jet, think the HRRR may be a better solution since there seems to
be a lack of strong linear forcing. Given the shear and
instability expected to unfold late this morning, I think hail up
to and maybe a little bigger than 2 inches in diameter is within
the envelope of possibilities. Damaging winds gusts would be a
little more conditional given the elevated nature of the storms,
but some of the forecast soundings do show downdraft CAPE values
approaching 1000 J/kg. So it is not out of the question to see
damaging wind gusts from the more intense updrafts. Have increased
POPs given the good model consensus and included a mention of
severe storms in the forecast. Highs today are not expected to get
out of the 60s given the cloud cover and precip anticipated.

Showers and thunderstorms should move east of the area late this
afternoon and this evening as the shortwave progresses east and high
pressure builds in with dry air advecting in from the northwest.
There is some indication from the models for light QPF to linger
across northeast KS through the evening as the main wave slowly
moves across eastern NEB. So have some chance POPs over northeast KS
through the evening. Lows tonight should fall into the 40s. A decent
pressure gradient and a slow scattering out of the stratus is
expected to keep temps from dropping below the mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

High pressure is progged to be the main surface feature over the
central plains for the coming days. A series of cold fronts are
expected to move through the area as the synoptic pattern
amplifies and flow over the Great Plains becomes more meridional.
This should keep temps at or below normal through next weekend
with periodic chances for precip. The coolest temps continue to
set up for Saturday morning with the central of a surface ridge
progged to be over northeast KS around sunrise. Have lows in the
upper 30s to around 40. The most obvious chance for precip looks
to be Thursday night as a more amplified shortwave digs southeast
within northwest flow aloft. Have continued with chance POPs for
Thursday and Thursday night. There continues to be indications of
a weak shortwave clipping northeast KS Tuesday night. The NAM and
GFS hint at enough mid level moisture for some light QPF. But the
ECMWF fails to saturate mid levels enough to generate any precip.
So have kept POPs around 10 percent for now. Another wave is
possible Saturday night or Sunday. Although there are still big
differences in the strength and track of the wave between the
ECMWF and GFS. So confidence in the forecast it marginal for
including a POP at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

With the short term guidance in good agreement, the forecast is
based largely on the consensus with the main focus on timing the
restricted conditions. Will use the CAMs to show the most likely
timing for the strongest convection. The biggest uncertainty is
how long the lower stratus may hang on tonight with the RAP
scattering things out a little slower. There may also be a LLWS
risk overnight tonight. Will let later shifts focus more on this
potential.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
341 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-050845-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
341 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over central KS between 5
and 7 am this morning and spread east across the entire area
through the morning. Severe thunderstorms are possible with large
hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds gusts the
likely hazards. Severe weather is possible over the entire area,
but areas along and south of a line from Concordia to Holton are
most likely to see severe thunderstorms. The stronger
thunderstorms should move east of the area by mid afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter are encouraged to make severe weather reports to the
National Weather Service in Topeka.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Wolters

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
719 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ037-054-058-041245-
Coffey-Lyon-Morris-
719 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORRIS...WEST
CENTRAL COFFEY AND LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

At 719 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Strong City to near
Madison. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia, Americus, Olpe, Hartford, Neosho Rapids, Bushong, Dunlap and
John Redmond Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3817 9636 3852 9635 3852 9655 3873 9630
      3825 9577 3817 9598
TIME...MOT...LOC 1219Z 231DEG 32KT 3846 9661 3811 9618

Skow

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
743 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 AM     HAIL             GRANDVIEW PLAZA         39.03N 96.80W
05/04/2020  E0.88 INCH       GEARY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
747 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ054-055-058-041315-
Coffey-Lyon-Osage-
747 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN
COFFEY AND CENTRAL LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 AM CDT...

At 746 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Emporia, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia, Lebo, Americus, Olpe, Hartford, Neosho Rapids, Reading, Beto
Junction and Melvern Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3825 9617 3843 9635 3872 9597 3839 9568
TIME...MOT...LOC 1246Z 244DEG 38KT 3837 9614

Skow

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
750 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 AM     HAIL             JUNCTION CITY           39.03N 96.83W
05/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       GEARY              KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
751 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW TESCOTT           39.02N 97.88W
05/04/2020                   OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMB DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
754 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 AM     HAIL             6 S OLPE                38.17N 96.16W
05/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       LYON               KS   PUBLIC

&&