Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Tallahassee, FL

576 
WWUS52 KTAE 200648
SVSTAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
248 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

GAC007-201-200658-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-200420T0700Z/
Miller GA-Baker GA-
248 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MILLER AND SOUTH
CENTRAL BAKER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM EDT/600 AM CDT/ for
Big Bend and the Panhandle of Florida...and south central and
southwestern Georgia.

LAT...LON 3093 8364 3079 8386 3060 8420 3066 8489
      3070 8486 3072 8490 3081 8485 3095 8454
      3122 8402 3118 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 0648Z 272DEG 42KT 3117 8363 3095 8391 3081 8413 3070
8433

$$

FLC039-063-073-GAC027-071-075-087-131-205-253-275-200700-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-200420T0700Z/
Jackson FL-Gadsden FL-Leon FL-Decatur GA-Cook GA-Grady GA-
Mitchell GA-Thomas GA-Brooks GA-Seminole GA-Colquitt GA-
248 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM
EDT/200 AM CDT/ FOR EAST CENTRAL JACKSON...NORTHERN GADSDEN...NORTH
CENTRAL LEON...DECATUR...SOUTHWESTERN COOK...GRADY...SOUTHEASTERN
MITCHELL...THOMAS...NORTHWESTERN BROOKS...SOUTHEASTERN SEMINOLE AND
SOUTHERN COLQUITT COUNTIES...

At 248 AM EDT/148 AM CDT/, severe thunderstorms were located along a
line extending from 7 miles southeast of Norman Park to near Coolidge
to 6 miles southeast of Cairo to 7 miles northeast of Havana, moving
east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Bainbridge, Moultrie, Thomasville, Havana, Cairo, Pelham, Adel,
Tallahassee, Sparks, Ochlocknee, Pavo, Coolidge, Whigham, West
Bainbridge, Chattahoochee, Riverside, Berlin, Funston, Attapulgus and
Barwick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM EDT/600 AM CDT/ for
Big Bend and the Panhandle of Florida...and south central and
southwestern Georgia.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 3093 8364 3079 8386 3060 8420 3066 8489
      3070 8486 3072 8490 3081 8485 3095 8454
      3122 8402 3118 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 0648Z 272DEG 42KT 3117 8363 3095 8391 3081 8413 3070
8433

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
152 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

Cigs lower to at least IFR overnight as a line of severe TSRA
sweeps across terminals through Monday morning. Winds shift with
frontal passage on Monday gusting to 30 kt at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1129 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Clearly, the airmass over our western area remains very unstable
- while over portions of South Central, GA, it will be a little
longer before this boundary starts moving northward

The 00z TAE sounding shows the kinematic fields continue to
increase with near 60 kt of deep layer shear and the 850 mb winds
now up to 45 knots. RAP analysis of 850 mb winds in our western
counties already show the presence of winds around 50 kt at that
level. Further west, the KLIX VWP is showing 50 kt winds at 3000
ft. Clearly, the wind fields moving into the region are more than
supportive for significant severe weather. While the low level
flow is not sufficiently curved, even across Srn Alabama and the
Western Florida Panhandle, there still appears to be enough low
level shear present to maintain the tornado risk through the night.
Moreover, the presence of the surface frontal boundary across a
portion of our forecast area could be a significant factor in
tornado potential later tonight, especially if this boundary is
slow to recede northward. Storms nearing this boundary would
encounter enhanced low level shear as the winds back near the
boundary, thus increasing tornado potential. This risk is greatest
across Southeast Alabama and into extreme SW Georgia over the
next 2-4 hours.

Through 9 pm CDT, storms that are over South Central Alabama will
be moving eastward toward our northern SE AL counties as well as
approaching Quitman/Clay Counties in extreme SW Georgia. With the
boundary beginning to retreat northward, it is possible that
these storms will remain surface-based moving into the area and
present the risk of all severe hazard types as they move through.
As the storms move further east of Clay/Quitman Counties, the
storms should become increasingly elevated and present more of a
large hail threat into South Central Georgia, as long as they are
not overtaken by the frontal boundary, should this occur, the
storms would continue to present a risk for all severe hazards.

After midnight CDT - a large cluster of storms, now across
Southern Mississippi will be nearing our western CWA boundary.
This particular complex of storms a cross Southern Mississippi
is especially intense, with a relatively untouched airmass ahead
of it that is incredibly favorable for the continued maintenance
of the storms. 22z/23z HRRR output suggests this storm nears
Southeast Alabama around 1 am CT and will pose a risk for all
severe hazards. This storm and others in the main line would then
progress across the region throughout the early morning hours on
Monday.

Key Point:

1. A moderate risk for severe weather continues across the region
tonight. Storms are expected to increase in coverage and severity
later tonight in our region and pose a risk for all severe
weather hazards: destructive winds, tornadoes, and large hail.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Wednesday]...

Dry weather with high pressure at the surface and confluent flow
aloft. Cool-ish partly cloudy mornings and warm mainly sunny
afternoons expected. Little change made to previous forecast.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Sunday]...

Next strong system will approach Thursday with deep moisture and
decent shear in play. Severe weather possible along with an
excessive rain threat. Will have to see how the Friday-Sunday
period plays out as it looks like another system will move
through.  We'll look closer at that tmrw.

.MARINE...

Hazardous marine conditions are expected as a strong system moves
across the area. Winds and seas increasing this afternoon and
reaching SCA levels this evening into early Monday afternoon. A
Small Craft Advisory is now in effect. A cluster or line of
severe storms sweeps through overnight into Monday. After the
system departs, winds and seas gradually relax before ramping up
to cautionary/advisory levels again ahead of the next system on
Thurs.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

Thunderstorm outflow has reinforced the cool airmass to our north
and the warm front has come to a halt. This will focus a heavy
rain threat across much of our AL/GA counties...esply northern
sections...through tonight. Risk of flash flooding has increased in
these areas as has the potential for flooding on the Lee and
Lowndes County tributaries. River Flood warnings may be required
for these areas later today.

Thursday system still looks wet and after this system's rain we
will be much more susceptible to flooding. We're going to focus on
the short term for now but plan an ESF tomorrow to update
interests on our rivers about late week/weekend flood potential.
Stay tuned!

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee
Panama City
Dothan
Albany
Valdosta
Cross City
Apalachicola

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Johnstone
LONG TERM...Johnstone
AVIATION...Nguyen
MARINE...Johnstone
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Johnstone

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
122 AM EDT MON APR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW CAIRNS AAF         31.28N 85.72W
04/20/2020  M54 MPH          DALE               AL   AWOS

            AWOS KOZR MEASURED A 54 MPH GUST.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
126 AM EDT MON APR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S MARLEY HILL         31.47N 85.69W
04/20/2020                   DALE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT DALE COUNTY
            AND 2 REPORTS OF TREES ON HOUSES.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
128 AM EDT MON APR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 AM     TSTM WND GST     NAPIER FIELD            31.32N 85.45W
04/20/2020  M49 MPH          DALE               AL   ASOS

            KDHN IN DOTHAN MEASURED A 49 MPH GUST.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
129 AM EDT MON APR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     TSTM WND GST     SHELL ARMY FIELD        31.37N 85.85W
04/20/2020  M48 MPH          COFFEE             AL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KSXS IN FT RUCKER REPORTED 48
            MPH GUST.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
130 AM EDT MON APR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 AM     TSTM WND GST     HANCHEY FIELD           31.35N 85.65W
04/20/2020  M46 MPH          DALE               AL   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KHEY IN FT RUCKER MEASURED A 46
            MPH GUST.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
136 AM EDT MON APR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BLACKWELL FIELD A/P     31.43N 85.62W
04/20/2020                   DALE               AL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ACROSS NORTH AND SOUTHBOUND LANES
            OF HIGHWAY 231 NEAR THE LOVES TRAVEL STOP.

&&

DH