Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Tallahassee, FL

491 
WWUS52 KTAE 200726
SVSTAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
226 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

FLC005-131-133-200735-
/O.EXP.KTAE.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-200420T0730Z/
Bay FL-Walton FL-Washington FL-
226 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BAY...SOUTHERN WALTON AND
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 230 AM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for the Panhandle
of Florida.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Tallahassee.

LAT...LON 3040 8639 3038 8633 3042 8631 3040 8629
      3040 8623 3043 8626 3043 8625 3038 8616
      3039 8611 3044 8616 3047 8613 3045 8619
      3049 8620 3046 8639 3055 8639 3051 8539
      2989 8538 3016 8591 3030 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 0725Z 000DEG 16KT 3016 8639 3022 8592 3023 8549 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
152 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

Cigs lower to at least IFR overnight as a line of severe TSRA
sweeps across terminals through Monday morning. Winds shift with
frontal passage on Monday gusting to 30 kt at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1129 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Clearly, the airmass over our western area remains very unstable
- while over portions of South Central, GA, it will be a little
longer before this boundary starts moving northward

The 00z TAE sounding shows the kinematic fields continue to
increase with near 60 kt of deep layer shear and the 850 mb winds
now up to 45 knots. RAP analysis of 850 mb winds in our western
counties already show the presence of winds around 50 kt at that
level. Further west, the KLIX VWP is showing 50 kt winds at 3000
ft. Clearly, the wind fields moving into the region are more than
supportive for significant severe weather. While the low level
flow is not sufficiently curved, even across Srn Alabama and the
Western Florida Panhandle, there still appears to be enough low
level shear present to maintain the tornado risk through the night.
Moreover, the presence of the surface frontal boundary across a
portion of our forecast area could be a significant factor in
tornado potential later tonight, especially if this boundary is
slow to recede northward. Storms nearing this boundary would
encounter enhanced low level shear as the winds back near the
boundary, thus increasing tornado potential. This risk is greatest
across Southeast Alabama and into extreme SW Georgia over the
next 2-4 hours.

Through 9 pm CDT, storms that are over South Central Alabama will
be moving eastward toward our northern SE AL counties as well as
approaching Quitman/Clay Counties in extreme SW Georgia. With the
boundary beginning to retreat northward, it is possible that
these storms will remain surface-based moving into the area and
present the risk of all severe hazard types as they move through.
As the storms move further east of Clay/Quitman Counties, the
storms should become increasingly elevated and present more of a
large hail threat into South Central Georgia, as long as they are
not overtaken by the frontal boundary, should this occur, the
storms would continue to present a risk for all severe hazards.

After midnight CDT - a large cluster of storms, now across
Southern Mississippi will be nearing our western CWA boundary.
This particular complex of storms a cross Southern Mississippi
is especially intense, with a relatively untouched airmass ahead
of it that is incredibly favorable for the continued maintenance
of the storms. 22z/23z HRRR output suggests this storm nears
Southeast Alabama around 1 am CT and will pose a risk for all
severe hazards. This storm and others in the main line would then
progress across the region throughout the early morning hours on
Monday.

Key Point:

1. A moderate risk for severe weather continues across the region
tonight. Storms are expected to increase in coverage and severity
later tonight in our region and pose a risk for all severe
weather hazards: destructive winds, tornadoes, and large hail.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Wednesday]...

Dry weather with high pressure at the surface and confluent flow
aloft. Cool-ish partly cloudy mornings and warm mainly sunny
afternoons expected. Little change made to previous forecast.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Sunday]...

Next strong system will approach Thursday with deep moisture and
decent shear in play. Severe weather possible along with an
excessive rain threat. Will have to see how the Friday-Sunday
period plays out as it looks like another system will move
through.  We'll look closer at that tmrw.

.MARINE...

Hazardous marine conditions are expected as a strong system moves
across the area. Winds and seas increasing this afternoon and
reaching SCA levels this evening into early Monday afternoon. A
Small Craft Advisory is now in effect. A cluster or line of
severe storms sweeps through overnight into Monday. After the
system departs, winds and seas gradually relax before ramping up
to cautionary/advisory levels again ahead of the next system on
Thurs.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

Thunderstorm outflow has reinforced the cool airmass to our north
and the warm front has come to a halt. This will focus a heavy
rain threat across much of our AL/GA counties...esply northern
sections...through tonight. Risk of flash flooding has increased in
these areas as has the potential for flooding on the Lee and
Lowndes County tributaries. River Flood warnings may be required
for these areas later today.

Thursday system still looks wet and after this system's rain we
will be much more susceptible to flooding. We're going to focus on
the short term for now but plan an ESF tomorrow to update
interests on our rivers about late week/weekend flood potential.
Stay tuned!

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee
Panama City
Dothan
Albany
Valdosta
Cross City
Apalachicola

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Johnstone
LONG TERM...Johnstone
AVIATION...Nguyen
MARINE...Johnstone
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Johnstone

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
208 AM EDT MON APR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E BLAKELY             31.38N 84.92W
04/20/2020                   EARLY              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            SCATTERED TREES DOWN ACROSS EARLY COUNTY.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
210 AM EDT MON APR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW CUTHBERT           31.78N 84.80W
04/20/2020                   RANDOLPH           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            SCATTERED TREES DOWN ACROSS RANDOLPH COUNTY.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
216 AM EDT MON APR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BOYKIN                  31.10N 84.69W
04/20/2020                   MILLER             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN SOUTHERN MILLER COUNTY.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
217 AM EDT MON APR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N STEINHAM STORE      31.05N 84.55W
04/20/2020                   DECATUR            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN NORTHERN DECATUR COUNTY.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
221 AM EDT MON APR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1252 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE PETERMAN          31.20N 85.47W
04/20/2020                   HOUSTON            AL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN IN THE ROBINDALE SUBDIVISION.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
232 AM EDT MON APR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW LIVINGSTON         31.42N 83.95W
04/20/2020                   WORTH              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN HIGHWAY 133 AND HIGHWAY 112
            BLOCKING BOTH LANES OF TRAFFIC.

&&

DH