Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
152 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

Cigs lower to at least IFR overnight as a line of severe TSRA
sweeps across terminals through Monday morning. Winds shift with
frontal passage on Monday gusting to 30 kt at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1129 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Clearly, the airmass over our western area remains very unstable
- while over portions of South Central, GA, it will be a little
longer before this boundary starts moving northward

The 00z TAE sounding shows the kinematic fields continue to
increase with near 60 kt of deep layer shear and the 850 mb winds
now up to 45 knots. RAP analysis of 850 mb winds in our western
counties already show the presence of winds around 50 kt at that
level. Further west, the KLIX VWP is showing 50 kt winds at 3000
ft. Clearly, the wind fields moving into the region are more than
supportive for significant severe weather. While the low level
flow is not sufficiently curved, even across Srn Alabama and the
Western Florida Panhandle, there still appears to be enough low
level shear present to maintain the tornado risk through the night.
Moreover, the presence of the surface frontal boundary across a
portion of our forecast area could be a significant factor in
tornado potential later tonight, especially if this boundary is
slow to recede northward. Storms nearing this boundary would
encounter enhanced low level shear as the winds back near the
boundary, thus increasing tornado potential. This risk is greatest
across Southeast Alabama and into extreme SW Georgia over the
next 2-4 hours.

Through 9 pm CDT, storms that are over South Central Alabama will
be moving eastward toward our northern SE AL counties as well as
approaching Quitman/Clay Counties in extreme SW Georgia. With the
boundary beginning to retreat northward, it is possible that
these storms will remain surface-based moving into the area and
present the risk of all severe hazard types as they move through.
As the storms move further east of Clay/Quitman Counties, the
storms should become increasingly elevated and present more of a
large hail threat into South Central Georgia, as long as they are
not overtaken by the frontal boundary, should this occur, the
storms would continue to present a risk for all severe hazards.

After midnight CDT - a large cluster of storms, now across
Southern Mississippi will be nearing our western CWA boundary.
This particular complex of storms a cross Southern Mississippi
is especially intense, with a relatively untouched airmass ahead
of it that is incredibly favorable for the continued maintenance
of the storms. 22z/23z HRRR output suggests this storm nears
Southeast Alabama around 1 am CT and will pose a risk for all
severe hazards. This storm and others in the main line would then
progress across the region throughout the early morning hours on
Monday.

Key Point:

1. A moderate risk for severe weather continues across the region
tonight. Storms are expected to increase in coverage and severity
later tonight in our region and pose a risk for all severe
weather hazards: destructive winds, tornadoes, and large hail.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Night Through Wednesday]...

Dry weather with high pressure at the surface and confluent flow
aloft. Cool-ish partly cloudy mornings and warm mainly sunny
afternoons expected. Little change made to previous forecast.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Sunday]...

Next strong system will approach Thursday with deep moisture and
decent shear in play. Severe weather possible along with an
excessive rain threat. Will have to see how the Friday-Sunday
period plays out as it looks like another system will move
through.  We'll look closer at that tmrw.

.MARINE...

Hazardous marine conditions are expected as a strong system moves
across the area. Winds and seas increasing this afternoon and
reaching SCA levels this evening into early Monday afternoon. A
Small Craft Advisory is now in effect. A cluster or line of
severe storms sweeps through overnight into Monday. After the
system departs, winds and seas gradually relax before ramping up
to cautionary/advisory levels again ahead of the next system on
Thurs.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

Thunderstorm outflow has reinforced the cool airmass to our north
and the warm front has come to a halt. This will focus a heavy
rain threat across much of our AL/GA counties...esply northern
sections...through tonight. Risk of flash flooding has increased in
these areas as has the potential for flooding on the Lee and
Lowndes County tributaries. River Flood warnings may be required
for these areas later today.

Thursday system still looks wet and after this system's rain we
will be much more susceptible to flooding. We're going to focus on
the short term for now but plan an ESF tomorrow to update
interests on our rivers about late week/weekend flood potential.
Stay tuned!

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee
Panama City
Dothan
Albany
Valdosta
Cross City
Apalachicola

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Johnstone
LONG TERM...Johnstone
AVIATION...Nguyen
MARINE...Johnstone
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Johnstone

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 AM EDT MON APR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE GULF RESORT BEACH  30.21N 85.88W
04/20/2020  M41 MPH          GMZ750             FL   BUOY

            BUOY STATION PCBF1 PANAMA CITY BEACH, FL
            MEASURED A 41 MPH GUST.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
345 AM EDT MON APR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 N MAGNOLIA BEACH      30.19N 85.72W
04/20/2020  M40 MPH          BAY                FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 0239W 2.1 N MAGNOLIA BEACH
            (WEATHERSTEM) MEASURED A 40 MPH GUST.

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 AM EDT MON APR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 SE GULF RESORT BEACH  30.21N 85.88W
04/20/2020  M41 MPH          GMZ750             FL   BUOY

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS MARINE TSTM WIND REPORT
            FROM 1 SE GULF RESORT BEACH. BUOY STATION
            PCBF1 PANAMA CITY BEACH, FL MEASURED A 41
            MPH GUST.

&&

DH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
354 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

FLZ012>015-026-112-114-115-200845-
Coastal Bay FL-Inland Franklin FL-Liberty FL-Inland Bay FL-
Calhoun FL-Inland Gulf FL-Coastal Franklin FL-Coastal Gulf FL-
354 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GULF...SOUTHEASTERN BAY AND
SOUTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN BIG BEND
OF FLORIDA UNTIL 445 AM EDT/345 AM CDT/...

At 354 AM EDT/254 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Hiland Park, or near Lynn Haven, moving east at 55
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City, Lynn Haven, Callaway, Port St. Joe, Springfield, Mexico
Beach, Hiland Park, Stonemill Creek, Tyndall Air Force Base, Orange,
Parker, Wewahitchka, Honeyville, Allanton, Vilas, Chipola Cutoff,
Dirego Park, College Station, Central City and Cape San Blas.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM EDT/600 AM CDT/ for
Big Bend of and the Panhandle of Florida.

LAT...LON 2976 8548 2988 8549 3000 8568 3013 8579
      3042 8557 3024 8475 2960 8525 2959 8532
      2959 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0754Z 278DEG 48KT 3022 8557

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
358 AM EDT MON APR 20 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW BRIDGEBORO         31.42N 83.99W
04/20/2020                   WORTH              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOME COMPLETELY DESTROYED ON SOUTH COUNTY
            LINE ROAD.

&&

DH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
407 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

FLZ017-018-027-115-118-127-200845-
Coastal Wakulla FL-Coastal Jefferson FL-Inland Jefferson FL-
Coastal Franklin FL-Inland Wakulla FL-Leon FL-
407 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WAKULLA...SOUTHWESTERN
JEFFERSON...SOUTH CENTRAL LEON AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES
UNTIL 445 AM EDT...

At 407 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Woodville, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Marks, Crawfordville, Woodville, Tallahassee, Wakulla, Newport,
Shadeville, Hells Half Acre, Leon Sinks, Gaither Community Center,
Lake Munson, Wakulla Springs, Eight Mile Pond, Panacea, Medart,
Bethel, Natural Bridge, Liveoak Island, Springsax Park and Belair.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM EDT for Big Bend of
Florida.

LAT...LON 2990 8444 3029 8445 3042 8431 3019 8395
      3008 8400 3009 8399 3007 8398 3001 8414
      2999 8426 2987 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 0807Z 311DEG 40KT 3031 8432

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